North Texas at Texas State

Away
North Texas
1-1 W1 · Mixed
Home
Texas State
0-2 L2 · Mixed
Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

North Texas (1‑1) at Texas State (0‑2) — Texas State is favored by 3. The model gives Texas State a 81% shot.

How they got here

Last two games

North Texas · 1-1

Picked #135 in the preseason · now #121 — better than expected.

1-1 in its last two, capped by a 38-point win over UNLV as a 3-point underdog.

W 44–6 vs UNLV #99 of 669

won by 38 as a 3-point underdog

L 16–52 @ IndianaTop 25 #8 of 669

lost by 36 as a 40.5-point underdog

Last two games

Texas State · 0-2

Picked #34 in the preseason · now #32 — about right.

Two straight losses.

L 26–31 vs UTSA #14 of 669

lost by 5 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 7–59 @ TexasTop 25 #5 of 669

lost by 52 as a 29.5-point underdog

What’s at stake

Make the CFP field

North Texas · 1%1% → ▲2% if win1% → ▼1% if loss
Texas State · 0%0% → ▲0% if win0% → ▼0% if loss

Win the conference

North Texas · 8%8% → ▲9% if win8% → ▼7% if loss
Texas State · 6%6% → ▲6% if win6% → ▼5% if loss

Win it all

North Texas · 0%0% → ▲0% if win0% → ▼0% if loss
Texas State · 0%0% → ▲0% if win0% → ▼0% if loss

CFP odds as of September 15, 2026

See this week’s biggest postseason implications ›

The series

Texas State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · Texas State won the last meeting

  • 2024 · neutral siteTexas State 30–28

Face-off

What each fanbase carries into this one.

North Texas

The chip · vs the blue bloods

Fans note that the moment North Texas finally got good — the first ranking since 1959, 12 wins, a Burlsworth Trophy quarterback — a power-conference school simply reached down and took the coach and the QB, the way the big programs always do.

What this game touches

Built it, then watched it leave. Eric Morris took the Mean Green from afterthought to 12-2, a No. 24 ranking, and an American title-game berth — then left for Oklahoma State after the regular season, taking Burlsworth-winning QB Drew Mestemaker with him to Stillwater. Denton's best season ever ended with the architects walking out the door.

Texas State

The chip · vs the national media

Fans have heard it for a decade — that Texas State is the newcomer that doesn't matter, the FBS arrival nobody respects. Getting the Pac-12 nod over older, bigger programs is the answer they wanted, and they want Kinne to prove San Marcos earned the upgrade.

What this game touches

The decade nobody noticed. Texas State reclassified to FBS in 2012 and then spent a decade as a losing-record afterthought with no bowl appearances, the kind of program outsiders used as a schedule-filler — a stretch only erased when GJ Kinne arrived in 2023 and immediately won.

Best players

North Texas

Texas State

The line, and the room

North Texas fans are feeling better about their season (88th percentile) than Texas State fans are (3rd) — even with Texas State favored here.

  • Model · 81%
  • Market · 60%
  • Texas State fans · 3rd
  • North Texas fans · 88th

Home −3 · O/U 63.5

Conditions

91°F · 5 mph wind

Texas State is worth +4.8 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.

44% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (19–24 home, 11–36 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.2 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 233 miles to get here.

Recent games

Texas State

  • Wk 1Lat Texas7-59
  • Wk 2Lvs UTSA26-31

North Texas

  • Wk 1Lat Indiana16-52
  • Wk 2Wvs UNLV44-6

Trajectory

7.78-0.00-7.79Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3North TexasTexas State

The market

Book hold: 4.3%