The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Florida Atlantic 61%, North Texas 65%
Win out 23% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
UTSA's chance to win each game left, from our model: Florida Atlantic 61%, North Texas 65%, UAB 74%, Tulsa 80%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 5% to 16%, peaking at 16% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 1st in the American Athletic · 4-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Owen McCown 1,751 · Rushing Will Henderson III 662 · Receiving DJ Allen 347 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
Follow UTSA:athletics siteAmerican AthleticX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #18 | #138 | −28.5✓ +0.5 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 45-16 139 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass McCown 275 · Rush Henderson III 99 · Rec Allen 116 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #16 | #31 | +1.5✓ +6.5 | @Texas State | W 31-26 154 Loud | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass McCown 214 · Rush Henderson III 80 · Rec Anderson 83 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #14 | #4 | +29.5✓ +5.5 | @Texas | L 6-30 130 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass McCown 70 · Rush Henderson III 38 · Rec High 20 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #11 | #76 | −14.5✗ −0.5 | Colorado State | W 59-45 150 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass McCown 303 · Rush Henderson III 89 · Rec Allen 87 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #17 | #143 | −11.5✗ −9.5 | @Rice | W 16-14 132 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass McCown 148 · Rush Henderson III 90 · Rec Amador II 48 |
| 6 | Oct 8 | #23 | #60 | −5.5✓ +1.5 | South Florida | W 31-24 136 | 5-1 | 2-0 | Pass McCown 209 · Rush Peterson 92 · Rec Amador II 70 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #26 | #73 | −5.5✗ −1.5 | Navy | W 38-34 126 | 6-1 | 3-0 | Pass McCown 359 · Rush Henderson III 78 · Rec Amador II 71 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #33 | #73 | −3✓ +20 | @Tulane | W 42-19 136 | 7-1 | 4-0 | Pass McCown 173 · Rush Henderson III 102 · Rec Amador II 47 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 5 | #34 | #126 | −7 | @Florida Atlantic | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN61% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #34 | #57 | North Texas | time TBA · ESPNU65% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @UAB | time TBA74% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Tulsa | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for UTSA, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for UTSA: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @Tulane | W 42-19 | 396 | 3 | 35:19 | +0.124 | 48.6% | 1.21 | |
| Oct 17 | Navy | W 38-34 | 469 | 0 | 31:45 | +0.272 | 44.3% | 1.42 | Most explosive |
| Oct 8 | South Florida | W 31-24 | 486 | 0 | 32:25 | +0.312 | 56.4% | 1.03 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Rice | W 16-14 | 314 | 2 | 32:06 | +0.038 | 37.0% | 1.42 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Colorado State | W 59-45 | 542 | 0 | 28:43 | +0.410 | 47.9% | 1.35 | |
| Sep 19 | @Texas | L 6-30 | 142 | 1 | 23:09 | -0.171 | 28.3% | 0.56 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Texas State | W 31-26 | 398 | 0 | 28:20 | +0.229 | 45.9% | 1.09 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 45-16 | 525 | 0 | 25:11 | +0.514 | 63.3% | 1.10 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 409 | 0.8 | +0.216 | 46.5% | 1.15 | ||||
UTSA's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
16% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Colorado State over Boise State
Sat 6 pm · Moves UTSA’s playoff chance by 6 points
Root for Rice over North Texas
Sat 4 pm · Moves UTSA’s conference title chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · UTSA · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 7%; 9 wins 27%; 10 wins 42%; 11 wins 23%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
UTSA is the program San Antonio willed into existence in a decade — no football before 2011, a 12-2 ranked season by 2021, and a third straight bowl win to prove the city's team is permanent.
The fanbase's chip isn't aimed at a rival or the media — it's the founding insult, the years outsiders assumed San Antonio's seventh-largest-city market would never field a real team. Every bowl win…
UTSA is the American Athletic program whose 2011 program founding + 2021 12-2 Jeff Traylor Conference USA championship + Alamodome NFL-grade venue define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
27th percentile among FBS programs
23 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #22, Matt McGavic (WHAS-TV), to #25, Stephen Means (Cleveland.com). 47 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · UTSA · 2026