The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jeff Traylor

Followed Frank Wilson. Jeff Traylor raised UTSA from Regional Program IV to National Program II.

53–26
2020–now · 1 stint
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In his own words

We’ve kind of just slow-played it for years, knowing I was going to have Frank Harris all the way to the end. Knowing I was going to have Rashad Wisdom all the way to the end. Knowing that player would start taking over and teaching for me
Well, the guys that would teach for me now, most of those guys are gone.
Paisano Online

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerUTSANational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUTSA, 2020: 7-5, Regional Program IV2020UTSA, 2021: 12-2, Regional Program II2021UTSA, 2022: 11-3, Regional Program I2022UTSA, 2023: 9-4, National Program III2023UTSA, 2024: 7-6, National Program III2024UTSA, 2025: 7-6, National Program II2025UTSA, 2026: in progress, National Program II2026+17.8One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 4th career season — faster than 19% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #505 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

UTSA, 7 seasons (active)
+17.8
Regional Program IV → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%UTSA2020–2026▲ 11.8pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
UTSA11.8pt#96 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–2 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Jeff Monken.

Rivalry record
3–2
60.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
17–11
60.7% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$11,165,000
bigger than 58% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Texas State3–260%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Jeff Monken1–4
5 meetings, 2020–2025
’20 L’22 W’23 L’24 L · blew a 4-pt lead’25 L · blew a 10-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–4 0.0%
National Program
3–4 42.9%
Regional Program
39–12 76.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.32
#51 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.22
#55 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2020–now
UTSAbuilder🏆 coach of the year ×2
Regional Program IV → National Program II
Jeff Traylor raised UTSA from Regional Program IV to National Program II.

1st-best UTSA tenure of 3 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+20.7 pts
#38 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+17.1 pts
#40 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Frank Wilson (2016–2019).

Season2020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record7–512–211–39–47–67–60–0
PostseasonL bowlL bowlL bowlW bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#105#78#73#59#123#107#79
Style — pass rate
Pass rate42.744.548.146.451.050.254.5
Coordinators
OCBarry Lunney Jr.Barry Lunney Jr.Matt Mattox / Will SteinJustin BurkeJustin BurkeJustin BurkeRick Bowie
DCTyrone NixJess Loepp / Rod WrightJess LoeppJess LoeppJess LoeppJess LoeppJess Loepp
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense56738264687180
Defense59426970856864
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%38.841.147.144.946.645.551.0
Red-zone pass%47.541.546.240.446.650.530.0
4th-down go%opp. territory34.929.441.738.734.047.8
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
83
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
83
left via the portal
Net portal flow
0
#86 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 237 lbs
across 57 of 83 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.0 lbs
#158 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#215 of 255 · less than most
Top states: TX (34), LA (4), GA (3), FL (2), MD (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.6
position-weighted
Net
-0.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Dematrius Davis (QB) from Alabama State
Biggest loss: Suddin Sapien (QB) to Texas-Permian Basin
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Barry Lunney Jr. → co-Matt Mattox / co-Will Stein · 2022
73rd pct82nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.1% → 47.1% (+6.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 82% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Matt Mattox / co-Will Stein → Justin Burke · 2023
82nd pct64th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.1% → 44.9% (-2.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 85% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Justin Burke → Rick Bowie · 2026
71st pct80th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.5% → 51.0% (+5.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 67% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Tyrone Nix → co-Jess Loepp / Rod Wright · 2021
59th pct42nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Jess Loepp / Rod Wright → Jess Loepp · 2022
42nd pct69th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
203 lbs
6′1″ avg · #633 of 767 · less than most
Running back
205 lbs
5′10″ avg · #499 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
193 lbs
6′1″ avg · #404 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
249 lbs
6′5″ avg · #238 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
313 lbs
6′4″ avg · #223 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
285 lbs
6′3″ avg · #349 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
224 lbs
6′2″ avg · #611 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
186 lbs
6′1″ avg · #589 of 771 · less than most
Safety
192 lbs
6′0″ avg · #288 of 346 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Cornerback via the portal
75%
#27 of 236 stints
Buys Tackle via the portal
62%
#37 of 223 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2020: Lost to Louisiana 24–31 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2021: Lost to San Diego State 24–38 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl2022: Lost to Troy 12–18 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl2023: Beat Marshall 35–17 Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl2024: Beat Coastal Carolina 44–15 Myrtle Beach Bowl2025: Beat Florida International 57–20 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Spencer Burford (2022), Tariq Woolen (2022), Zah Frazier (2025)

Coach of the Year: Conference USA Coach of the Year (2021), Conference USA Coach of the Year (2022)

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