UTSA at Texas State
Fan take
UTSA fans
Texas State fans
This is I-35 Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
UTSA · 7-6
Picked #17 in the preseason · now #23.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 34-point win over East Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog.
W 57–20 vs Florida International #119 of 668
won by 37 as a 7-point favorite
L 24–27 vs Army #86 of 668
lost by 3 as a 8.5-point favorite
W 58–24 vs East Carolina #53 of 668
won by 34 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 28–7 @ Charlotte #241 of 668
won by 21 as a 17.5-point favorite
L 23–55 @ South FloridaTop 25 #13 of 668
lost by 32 as a 14-point underdog
W 48–26 vs TulaneTop 25 #67 of 668
won by 22 as a 6-point underdog
L 17–55 @ North TexasTop 25 #63 of 668
lost by 38 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 61–13 vs Rice #135 of 668
won by 48 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 21–27 @ Temple #88 of 668
lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 17–16 @ Colorado State #103 of 668
won by 1 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 48–20 vs Incarnate Word #125 of 668
won by 28 as a 21-point favorite
L 36–43 vs Texas State #53 of 668
lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 24–42 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #10 of 668
lost by 18 as a 24-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Texas State · 7-6
Picked #34 in the preseason · now #12 — better than expected.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 41–10 vs Rice #207 of 668
won by 31 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 49–26 vs South Alabama #140 of 668
won by 23 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 31–14 vs UL Monroe #200 of 668
won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 41–14 @ Southern Miss #126 of 668
won by 27 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 39–42 @ Louisiana #108 of 668
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 20–52 vs James MadisonTop 25 #24 of 668
lost by 32 as a 7-point underdog
L 37–40 @ Marshall #84 of 668
lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 41–48 vs Troy #84 of 668
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 30–31 @ Arkansas State #154 of 668
lost by 1 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 35–3 vs Nicholls #199 of 668
won by 32 as a 32.5-point favorite
L 15–34 @ Arizona StateTop 25 #23 of 668
lost by 19 as a 18.5-point underdog
W 43–36 @ UTSA #12 of 668
won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 52–27 vs Eastern Michigan #126 of 668
won by 25 as a 14-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 13, 2026
The series
UTSA leads the series 6-2
8 meetings since 2012 · UTSA won the last meeting
- 2026UTSA 31–26
- 2025Texas State 43–36
- 2024Texas State 49–10
- 2023UTSA 20–13
- 2020UTSA 51–48
Best players
UTSA
- Brandon Tucker Jr. (LB) · 18 tackles
- Owen McCown (QB) · 489 passing yards
- Joel Rogers (S) · 12 tackles
Texas State
- Jayden Bradley (DB) · 18 tackles
- Ryan Nolan (DB) · 17 tackles
- Terrence Cooks II (LB) · 14 tackles
The line, and the room
UTSA fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (64th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 39%
- Market · 55%
- Texas State fans · 29th
- UTSA fans · 64th
Home −1.5 · O/U 65.5
Conditions
97°F · 8 mph wind · Rain Shower
Texas State is worth +4.8 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.
44% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (19–24 home, 11–36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.2 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 47 miles to get here.
UTSA 31 – Texas State 26
Called it — picked UTSA to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 23:15 — 10 comments, 10.0× its usual pace.
comments / minute
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 18:30–23:40 UTC (213 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- BoxThe line
Jayden Bradley (Texas State): 13 tackles
Top 1% tackles game since 2021.
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Texas State
- Wk 1Lat Texas7-59
UTSA
- Wk 1Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45-16
Trajectory
UTSA won 31-26, as picked pregame.