The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Arkansas State 28%
Win out <1% · expect 0.6 of 4 more wins
ULM's chance to win each game left, from our model: Arkansas State 28%, Louisiana 4%, App State 15%, Marshall 17%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 12th in the Sun Belt · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Aidan Armenta 1,316 · Rushing Austin Carlisle 252 · Receiving Marcellus Jackson 348 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #153 | #132 | +28.5✗ −20.5 | @Mississippi State | L 13-62 147 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Carlisle 73 · Rush Carlisle 50 · Rec Jameson 40 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #162 | #55 | +9.5✓ +3.5 | @UAB | L 20-26 131 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Carlisle 56 · Rush Carlisle 93 · Rec Jackson 21 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #161 | #153 | −9.5✗ −12.5 | SE Louisiana | L 35-38 135 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Carlisle 183 · Rush Jameson 85 · Rec Fulghum 88 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #171 | #116 | +11.5✗ −16.5 | Florida Atlantic | L 17-45 144 | 0-4 | 0-0 | Pass Armenta 278 · Rush Phillip 26 · Rec Robinson 79 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #188 | #73 | +12.5✗ −4.5 | @South Alabama | L 35-52 134 | 0-5 | 0-1 | Pass Armenta 355 · Rush Palmer-Smith 54 · Rec Jackson 93 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #207 | #77 | +13.5✗ −10.5 | Louisiana Tech | L 0-24 121 | 0-6 | 0-2 | Pass Armenta 119 · Rush Armenta 25 · Rec Coulter 42 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #225 | #111 | +13.5✓ +20.5 | @Troy | W 21-14 126 | 1-6 | 1-2 | Pass Armenta 147 · Rush Palmer-Smith 51 · Rec Coulter 32 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #207 | #127 | +3.5✗ −10.5 | Southern Miss | L 21-35 150 | 1-7 | 1-3 | Pass Armenta 202 · Rush Chaney Jr. 54 · Rec Jackson 83 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #210 | #112 | +14.5 | @Arkansas State | 3 pm ET28% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 12 | #210 | #41 | Louisiana | 9 pm ET · ESPN24% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @App State | time TBA15% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Marshall | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for ULM, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for ULM: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Southern Miss | L 21-35 | 359 | 2 | 32:40 | -0.045 | 40.0% | 1.04 | |
| Oct 24 | @Troy | W 21-14 | 243 | 1 | 27:09 | +0.003 | 36.5% | 1.00 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | Louisiana Tech | L 0-24 | 228 | 2 | 25:59 | -0.350 | 36.8% | 0.94 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @South Alabama | L 35-52 | 442 | 2 | 28:58 | +0.220 | 47.8% | 1.29 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Florida Atlantic | L 17-45 | 332 | 0 | 29:03 | +0.171 | 32.1% | 1.64 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | SE Louisiana | L 35-38 | 511 | 3 | 33:29 | -0.082 | 51.9% | 1.15 | Best success rate |
| Sep 12 | @UAB | L 20-26 | 257 | 1 | 28:07 | -0.178 | 44.4% | 0.78 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | @Mississippi State | L 13-62 | 278 | 0 | 31:47 | -0.025 | 29.6% | 1.05 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 331 | 1.4 | -0.036 | 39.9% | 1.11 | ||||
ULM's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · ULM · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 49%; 2 wins 40%; 3 wins 10%; 4 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-7
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
ULM is the north-Louisiana program that walked into Little Rock and stunned #8 Arkansas in overtime — one perfect Saturday it has spent a decade-plus trying to feel again.
ULM fans know the power-conference programs schedule them as a paycheck and a guaranteed win — and they'll remind you the Warhawks once cashed that check the other way, walking into an SEC stadium…
UL Monroe · Game-day weather
Typical at Malone Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, noon Saturdays 80
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 112 at 3:30 pm, 110 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
ULM is the Sun Belt program whose 2007 program rename + 2012 Arkansas upset (plus a real 2007 upset of Alabama, 21-14) + Malone Stadium identity define what Monroe-North-Louisiana-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
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Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · ULM · 2026