deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Jonathan Bibbs is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
ULM
0-2Latest
Sun Belt · Bryant Vincent, year 3 (8-18) · Malone Stadium · 27,617
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#131 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #138 (-33.2) · FPI #137
The marketno line yetvs SE Louisiana · our model 60% ULM · a number, not a pick
LastL 20–26 at UAB · Sat Sep 12 · Carl Fauntroy Jr. 1 sacks, 1 TFL, 1 INT
Nextvs SE Louisiana · Sat Sep 19 · 4:30 pm ET · Malone Stadium · series 3-6, won the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
ULM · 2026 schedule & results0-2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #153 | #132 | +28.5✗ | @Mississippi State | L 13–62 147 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #163 | #55 | +9.5✓ | @UAB | L 20–26 131 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #161 | #152 | SE Louisiana | ||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #161 | #110 | Florida Atlantic | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @South Alabama | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Louisiana Tech | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Troy | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Southern Miss | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Arkansas State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 13 | Louisiana | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @App State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Marshall |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @UAB | L 20–26 | 257 | 1 | 28:07 | -0.092 | 44.4% | 78.3% | |
| Sep 5 | @Mississippi State | L 13–62 | 278 | 0 | 31:47 | -0.025 | 29.6% | 105.3% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 268 | 0.5 | -0.059 | 37.0% | 91.8% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
ULM is the north-Louisiana program that walked into Little Rock and stunned #8 Arkansas in overtime — one perfect Saturday it has spent a decade-plus trying to feel again.
Standard GapA 1987 FCS national title and the 'Shock in Little Rock' vs a modern rea…
ULM fans know the power-conference programs schedule them as a paycheck and a guaranteed win — and they'll remind you the Warhawks once cashed that check the other way, walking into an SEC stadium and…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What it is like to watch them2025 · 3-9 · last season
Game feel48rock fightscombined pts / game13th highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate1-1some dramain one-score games (2 of 12)10th most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin-15.3outgunnedavg scoring margin13th best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo61methodicaloffensive plays / game14th fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.40highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)1st most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd17,486avg attendance11th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
ULM has lost five straight.
Hibernating. 0-10 over the last 10, and lost the last ten.
Streak L10Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 0-10
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs SE Louisiana · at home
PoorExplosive, big-playSoft
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#130 in field+100000
Sun Belt title#13 in market+7000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
UL Monroe · the story right now
6 storylines developing
What UL Monroe's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
JP Coulter is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Zachary Palmer-Smith does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
UL Monroe enters 2025 at No. 131 in SP+ — the 9-spot drop under Bryant Vincent raises one question: how to overcome top-quintile production losses.
what happenedUL Monroe enters 2025 rated No. 131 in SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
UL Monroe enters 2026 — the 3-9 record and 1% returning production contrast sharply with the 2012 Alabama upset that defined its identity, raising questions about whether the program can.
what happenedUL Monroe enters 2026 rated No. 131 in 2025 SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Bryant Vincent enters his third season at UL Monroe with a 3-9 losing record to overcome, as the program's identity hinges on reclaiming its historic upset legacy and reshaping its struggling units.
what happenedUL Monroe: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredUL Monroe's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downUL Monroe's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · ULM · 2026
Outcome band · ULM · 2026ULM's most likely season is 5-7 — no postseason. The floor is 3-9; the ceiling is 8-5.
Floor 3-9Ceiling 8-5Base 5-7
0 wins13 wins
Floor3-9No postseason, 2 fewer wins.
Base5-7No postseason.
Ceiling8-5A bowl game.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · UL Monroe · Season outlook Confidence
UL Monroe is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.
UL Monroe enters 2025 rated No. 131 in SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
UL Monroe enters 2025 at No. 131 in SP+ — the 9-spot drop under Bryant Vincent raises one question: how to overcome top-quintile production losses.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: UL Monroe enters 2025 rated No. 131 in SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers1 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Burton, Reid connect on 43-yard TD to send UAB to comeback win against Louisiana Monroe”
foxsports.com · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“UL Monroe UAB Football”
Bluefield Daily Telegraph · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“UAB 26-20 UL Monroe (13 Sep, 2026) Game Recap”
ESPN · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Following now · UL Monroe · Season outlook Confidence
UL Monroe is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.
UL Monroe enters 2026 rated No. 131 in 2025 SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
UL Monroe enters 2026 — the 3-9 record and 1% returning production contrast sharply with the 2012 Alabama upset that defined its identity, raising questions about whether the program can.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: UL Monroe enters 2026 rated No. 131 in 2025 SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers1 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Burton, Reid connect on 43-yard TD to send UAB to comeback win against Louisiana Monroe”
foxsports.com · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“UL Monroe UAB Football”
Bluefield Daily Telegraph · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“UAB 26-20 UL Monroe (13 Sep, 2026) Game Recap”
ESPN · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Rival pulse
Louisiana
Hopeful+9
Battle on the Bayou
Arkansas State
Uneasy-14
ASU-ULM
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
ULM is the Sun Belt program whose 2007 program rename + 2012 Arkansas upset (plus a real 2007 upset of Alabama, 21-14) + Malone Stadium identity define what Monroe-North-Louisiana-football looks like.
Offense: PoorTempo: Explosive, big-playDefense: Soft
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - ULM
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production39%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#132 nationally247 composite 505.5
Portal Additions20Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses17Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#127Depth class
TEin 3 - Bryce Andersonout 1 - Hunter HerringNeed Filled
current room: 240 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Complete TE2025 profileshows up in the passing game from any alignment
Junior-college recruit
Full roster (107 players)
DBAmeyr Adams, Armoni Rue, Carl Fauntroy Jr., Gavin Howard, Jabari Tiller, Jay Harper, Jayden Lewis, Jonathan Crain, Jordyn Williams, Korian Wilson, Navarion Benson, RJ Hall, Willie Wilson, Willie Wilson, Zy Jackson
DLAlexei Ramirez, CJ Wilson Jr., Charles Binet, Colton Vatne, Ethan Bailey, Jaden Rowe, James Smith, Kevontay Wells, Levontae Jacobs, Wyatt Poland, Zyan Tremont
LBBilly Pullen, Cooper Eldridge, Fred Clark, Jackson Parker, Jaeden Calender, Kelbee Holmes, LaZavier Amos, Le'Kell Mc'Gowan, Marcus Ross, Noah Flemmings, Rickey Banks, Ryan Baskerville
OLAJ Vinson, Adameon Botley, Ben Gehrke, Bright Fagbamiye, David Applewhite, Drew Hutchinson, Edarius Green, Freddie Gavin, Jeremyah Green, John Curtis Goodman Jr., Jordan Rowe, Kaliem Croswell, Nolan Anderson, Quentis Griffin Jr., Reese Steele, Roscoe Tucker, Sean Dugery, Van Martinez
RBBryson Roland, CJ Phillip, Christian Ponti, Derrick Jameson, Jaydon Wright, Julian Walker, Makin Lenard, Trevon Kinchen
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+10.0 net portal points
(raw ledger: +15.3 — unweighted, no position adjustment)DL-11.5
starter risk
TE+6.6
need filled
CB+5.4
need filled
S+4.9
QB+3.6
low confidence
LB-3.5
low confidence
OT+3.5
low confidence
K+3.0
low confidence
EDGE+2.3
RB+1.5
WR-0.4
IOL-0.1
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Gavin Howard
#1174 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Jeremyah Green
#2022 national
★★★☆☆
Marcellus Jackson
#129 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
25
MS · 10TX · 5AL · 2IA · 2AR · 1FL · 1GA · 1KS · 1+2 more
MS leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
99 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. MS leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median UL Monroe player grew up 288 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
57th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%119–638 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi17%17 of 99 players
Farthest1,716 miNolan Wilson · Newhall, CA
Closest3 miLandon Graves · Monroe, LA
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Malone Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 99 of 107 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
How it turned out
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
99th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
4.5
Vegas O/U wins
(13th among FBS)
(13th among FBS)
Fans 86pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 10% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~18% league rate.
1 interceptions of 10 disrupted passes (9 deflected, 1 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 6 penalties committed vs. 16 drawn on opponents, a 85-yard edge.
60 penalty yards committed vs. 145 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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