UL Monroe at Arkansas State
UL Monroe (1‑7) travels to Arkansas State (4‑4), with Arkansas State favored by 14.5. The model gives Arkansas State a 72% shot. Arkansas State’s rushing offense is at the 71st percentile; UL Monroe’s run defense is at the 6th.
This is ASU-ULM — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
UL Monroe · 1-7
Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings, 210th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Troy as a 13.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Arkansas State · 4-4
Rated 160th in our preseason ratings, 112th now, up 48 spots.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 6-point win over Georgia State as a 2.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Arkansas State’s rushing EPA against UL Monroe, 65 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Arkansas State’s rushing EPA against UL Monroe’s defense
Arkansas State offense, 71st percentile · UL Monroe defense, 6th
Arkansas State’s EPA/play against UL Monroe’s defense
Arkansas State offense, 64th percentile · UL Monroe defense, 11th
Arkansas State’s explosive plays against UL Monroe’s defense
Arkansas State offense, 20th percentile · UL Monroe defense, 68th
What’s at stake
UL Monroe
- UL Monroe is 3 games back in Sun Belt with 3 left to make it up.
- UL Monroe has won 1 straight in ASU-ULM — a chance to extend it.
Arkansas State
- Arkansas State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 83% to get there with a win here, 41% with a loss.
- Arkansas State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
The series
Arkansas State leads the series 26-9
35 meetings since 1974 · UL Monroe won the last meeting
- 2025UL Monroe 28-16
- 2024Arkansas State 28-21
- 2023Arkansas State 34-24
- 2022Arkansas State 45-28
- 2021Arkansas State 27-24
Each line is Arkansas State’s chance to win through that meeting. Arkansas State is 4-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
UL Monroe
The chip · vs the blue bloodsULM fans know the power-conference programs schedule them as a paycheck and a guaranteed win — and they'll remind you the Warhawks once cashed that check the other way, walking into an SEC stadium and walking out with the upset of the year.
What this game touches
Living on one upset. ULM's defining modern memory — the 2012 overtime win over #8 Arkansas, 'The Shock in Little Rock' — is now thirteen-plus years old, and the program has mostly struggled since. A 3-9 (1-7 Sun Belt) finish in 2025, Bryant Vincent's second year, was the latest reminder that the magic Saturday hasn't had many sequels.
Arkansas State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsRed Wolves fans say the power programs treat Arkansas State as a vending machine — pull a coach, take the blueprint, move on — and never once look back; Jonesboro says it built the tree the SEC harvests, and it's tired of getting none of the fruit.
What this game touches
The long fade since the dynasty. After five straight Sun Belt championships from 2011-2015 — each won under a coach who immediately left for a bigger job — Arkansas State spent the years since chasing that height, sliding into losing seasons before Butch Jones steadied it; the 2025 team started 1-4 before rallying to 7-6 and a bowl win.
Best players
UL Monroe
- Noah Flemmings (LB) · 72 tackles
- Marcus Ross (LB) · 48 tackles
- Taijh Overton (S) · 45 tackles
Arkansas State
- Joe Drew (S) · 74 tackles
- Trey Owens (QB) · 1,940 passing yards
- AG McGhee (S) · 43 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. UL Monroe: Aidan Armenta (1,316 passing yards); Arkansas State: Trey Owens (1,940 passing yards).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (51.5 → 53.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Arkansas State’s chances here.
Arkansas State favored by 14.5 · Total 53.5
Arkansas State by 14.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Arkansas State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Centennial Bank Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 85
UL Monroe at Arkansas State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3 pm ET · Centennial Bank Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Centennial Bank Stadium: noon Saturdays score 86, 3:30 pm 85, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Arkansas State is worth +4.4 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 55th percentile.
52% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (22-20 home, 16-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.9 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 243 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Arkansas State
- Wk 4Wvs Kennesaw State17-14
- Wk 5Lat Louisiana20-23
- Wk 6Lvs South Alabama49-56
- Wk 7Wat Southern Miss23-13
- Wk 8Wvs Georgia State38-32
UL Monroe
- Wk 4Lvs Florida Atlantic17-45
- Wk 5Lat South Alabama35-52
- Wk 7Lvs Louisiana Tech0-24
- Wk 8Wat Troy21-14
- Wk 9Lvs Southern Miss21-35
Power rating by week
Arkansas State is rated 6.7 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 2 points.
Total: 51.5 → 53.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Arkansas State8th2-2
- UL Monroe12th1-3