Arkansas State beats Georgia State 38-32

Team pages: Georgia State · Arkansas State

Georgia State4-332
Arkansas State4-438Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Ark. · Crowd 17,767ESPN+

Arkansas State beat Georgia State 38-32.

We had Georgia State favored. Arkansas State won.

Next: Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina, Sat Oct 31 · 2:00 PM ET · Georgia State favored by 6.5

Next: Arkansas State vs UL Monroe, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Owens 2-yd TD run, Arkansas State goes ahead 14-7 (Q2, 3:06). Arkansas State went from 52% to 74% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arkansas State a 46% chance, and the closing betting line (Arkansas State was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.

The edge changed hands 4 times before Arkansas State won it.

The edge changed hands 4 times and Georgia State came out on the wrong end.

77-yard TD runGeorgia State · Q3 9:14
FinalArkansas State 38-32 Georgia StateArkansas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q453% at halfArkansas StateWon38-3212+22+18Scores77-yard TD run
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q453% at halfArkansas StateWon38-3212Scores77-yard TD run
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q447% at halfArkansas StateLost32-3812−22−18Scores77-yard TD run
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q447% at halfArkansas StateLost32-3812Scores77-yard TD run

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 3:064th and 1Owens 2-yd TD run, Arkansas State goes ahead 14-7Arkansas State 52% → 74% (+22)
  2. 2Q3 10:45Owens 54-yd TD pass to Burris, Arkansas State goes ahead 21-14Arkansas State 49% → 67% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 3:064th and 1Owens 2-yd TD run, Arkansas State goes ahead 14-7Georgia State 48% → 26% (−22)
  2. 2Q3 10:45Owens 54-yd TD pass to Burris, Arkansas State goes ahead 21-14Georgia State 51% → 33% (−18)
Arkansas State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Georgia State -2.5), at 57% for Arkansas State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Arkansas State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:44Brown sacked for a 10-yd lossQ1, 13:44 · Arkansas State 0, Georgia State 00-0score after the play0-0score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 11:48Owens 12-yd TD pass to BonelliArkansas State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 11:48 · Arkansas State 7, Georgia State 0▲10%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 62% to 72%▲10%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 62% to 72%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q1, 6:00Brown sacked for a 10-yd lossQ1, 6:00 · Arkansas State 7, Georgia State 0▲2%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 66% to 68%▲2%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 66% to 68%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 7:39Brown 3-yd TD pass to Rilesties it 7-7Q2, 7:39 · Arkansas State 7, Georgia State 7▼17%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 65% to 48%▼17%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 65% to 48%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 3:06Owens 2-yd TD runArkansas State goes ahead 14-7Q2, 3:06 · Arkansas State 14, Georgia State 7▲22%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 52% to 74%▲22%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 52% to 74%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q2, 0:26Pereira 33-yd TD pass to Wigginsties it 14-14Q2, 0:26 · Arkansas State 14, Georgia State 14▼14%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 66% to 52%▼14%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 66% to 52%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q3, 10:53Pereira intercepted by Greil at the ASU46Q3, 10:53 · Arkansas State 14, Georgia State 1414-14score after the play14-14score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q3, 10:45Owens 54-yd TD pass to BurrisArkansas State goes ahead 21-14Q3, 10:45 · Arkansas State 21, Georgia State 14▲18%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 49% to 67%▲18%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 49% to 67%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  9. Q3, 9:14Wiggins 77-yd TD runties it 21-21Q3, 9:14 · Arkansas State 21, Georgia State 21▼11%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 67% to 56%▼11%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 67% to 56%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  10. Q4, 14:57Carter 2-yd TD runArkansas State leads 35-21Q4, 14:57 · Arkansas State 35, Georgia State 21▲8%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 84% to 92%▲8%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 84% to 92%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  11. Q4, 9:25Pereira 27-yd TD pass to Dorseycuts it to 38-29Q4, 9:25 · Arkansas State 38, Georgia State 29▼4%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 96% to 92%▼4%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 96% to 92%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  12. Q4, 0:15Pereira intercepted by Shahid at the ASU06Q4, 0:15 · Arkansas State 38, Georgia State 32▲13%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 85% to 98%▲13%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 85% to 98%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Arkansas State scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Georgia State on 5 of its 12.

Arkansas State’s drives are teal, Georgia State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Georgia State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 91PuntArkansas State: Touchdown, from 40 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 31Missed FGArkansas State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 60PuntGeorgia State: Punt, from 76 yards out to 67PuntArkansas State: Missed field goal, from 79 yards out to 26Missed FGQ2Georgia State: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 77End of halfQ3Arkansas State: Missed field goal, from 70 yards out to 25Missed FGGeorgia State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 73InterceptionArkansas State: Touchdown, from 54 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntArkansas State: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Georgia State: Punt, from 81 yards out to 76PuntArkansas State: Field goal, from 58 yards out to 9Field goalGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntGeorgia State: Field goal, from 55 yards out to 15Field goalArkansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntGeorgia State: Interception, from 87 yards out to 41InterceptionArkansas State: End of game, from 94 yards out to 96End of game

From Georgia State’s side

Georgia State’s best moment: Brown 3-yd TD pass to Riles, ties it 7-7 (Q2 7:39). It lifted Georgia State’s win chance by 17 points.

What it cost

Georgia State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Georgia State · lost1% → ▼0%
Arkansas State · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Georgia State · lost5% → ▼2%5%▼ 2%
Arkansas State · won1% → 1%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Georgia State plays vs Coastal Carolina on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Arkansas State 38, Georgia State 32

Arkansas State covered +2.5 by 8.5. The total, 70, went over 58.5.

Georgia StateArkansas StateTotal yardsGeorgia State 429Arkansas State 469429469Passing yardsGeorgia State 228Arkansas State 309228309Rushing yardsGeorgia State 201Arkansas State 160201160First downsGeorgia State 20Arkansas State 242024TurnoversGeorgia State 2Arkansas State 020Time of possessionGeorgia State 28:33Arkansas State 31:2728:3331:27
Team totalsGeorgia StateArkansas State
Total yards429469
Passing20 of 29, 228 yds21 of 32, 309 yds
Rushing31 for 201 yds34 for 160 yds
First downs2024
Third down4 of 122 of 10
Fourth down1 of 12 of 2
Turnovers20
Penalties5 for 56 yds5 for 55 yds
Time of possession28:3331:27

Georgia State leaders

  • Passing Ayden Pereira 12 of 19, 163 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Qwantavius Wiggins 8 for 99 yds, 1 TD; DJ Murray Jr. 7 for 66 yds
  • Receiving Rodshaun Dorsey 3 for 85 yds, 1 TD; DJ Murray Jr. 3 for 58 yds

Arkansas State leaders

  • Passing Trey Owens 21 of 32, 309 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Kenyon Clay 11 for 77 yds; Trey Owens 8 for 36 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Jaylen Bonelli 7 for 150 yds, 1 TD; Nazeviah Burris 6 for 114 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

77° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the northeast, gusts to 7

October game-day temperatures at Centennial Bank Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Arkansas State favoredGeorgia State favored100%Win chanceArkansas StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Arkansas State favoredGeorgia State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 3:06 left7:06 p.m.
Georgia State 7, Arkansas State 14 · Arkansas State 74% to win
no rain · wind 4 mph from the northeast · 67°
Owens 2-yd TD run, Arkansas State goes ahead 14-7

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Jonesboro airport, 1.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Georgia State · 4-2

Rated 155th in our preseason ratings, 96th now, up 59 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 22-49 @ James Madison No. 37 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 7.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 22-49 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 24%.

W 42-10 vs Old Dominion No. 113 of 668 teams

won by 32 as a 1.5-point favorite

Georgia State won 42-10 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 63%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

W 35-14 vs Northern Illinois No. 124 of 668 teams

won by 21 as an 8.5-point favorite

Georgia State won 35-14 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 84%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

L 30-44 @ UCF No. 94 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 17.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 30-44 at UCF. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 30%.

W 31-17 @ Kennesaw State No. 149 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 7.5-point underdog

Georgia State won 31-17 at Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 24%, low 23%, high better than 99%.

W 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T No. 264 of 668 teams

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Georgia State won 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T. Chance to win started at 97%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Arkansas State · 3-4

Rated 160th in our preseason ratings, 120th now, up 40 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 23-13 @ Southern Miss No. 127 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 5.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 23-13 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 59%, low 59%, high better than 99%.

L 49-56 vs South Alabama No. 85 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite

Arkansas State lost 49-56 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 67%, low 2%, high 80%.

L 20-23 @ Louisiana No. 35 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 20-23 at Louisiana. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 50%.

W 17-14 vs Kennesaw State No. 155 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 17-14 vs Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 74%, low 36%, high better than 99%.

L 7-31 @ TCU No. 46 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as an 18.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 7-31 at TCU. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 12%.

W 52-7 vs West Georgia No. 247 of 668 teams

won by 45 as a 31.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 52-7 vs West Georgia. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 24-42 @ Memphis No. 97 of 668 teams

lost by 18 as a 10.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 24-42 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 38%.

Week by week

Arkansas State

Wk 3: L 7-31 at TCU▼24TCUWk 4: W 17-14 vs Kennesaw State▲3Kennesaw…Wk 5: L 20-23 at Louisiana▼3LouisianaWk 6: L 49-56 vs South Alabama▼7S. Alaba…Wk 7: W 23-13 at Southern Miss▲10S. Miss
  • Wk 3Lat TCU7-31
  • Wk 4Wvs Kennesaw State17-14
  • Wk 5Lat Louisiana20-23
  • Wk 6Lvs South Alabama49-56
  • Wk 7Wat Southern Miss23-13

Georgia State

Wk 2: W 31-17 at Kennesaw State▲14Kennesaw…Wk 3: L 30-44 at UCF▼14UCFWk 4: W 35-14 vs Northern Illinois▲21N. Illin…Wk 5: W 42-10 vs Old Dominion▲32Old Domi…Wk 7: L 22-49 at James Madison▼27James Ma…
  • Wk 2Wat Kennesaw State31-17
  • Wk 3Lat UCF30-44
  • Wk 4Wvs Northern Illinois35-14
  • Wk 5Wvs Old Dominion42-10
  • Wk 7Lat James Madison22-49

Power rating by week

Georgia State is rated 2.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

0-4-9Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7Arkansas StateGeorgia State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Georgia State’s passing EPA against Arkansas State, 86 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Georgia State’s passing EPA against Arkansas State’s defense

    86 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 89th percentile · Arkansas State defense, 3rd

  2. Georgia State’s success rate against Arkansas State’s defense

    65 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 79th percentile · Arkansas State defense, 14th

  3. Arkansas State’s explosive plays against Georgia State’s defense

    44 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arkansas State offense, 19th percentile · Georgia State defense, 63rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Georgia StateArkansas State
EPA/play, offense
Georgia State · 74Arkansas State · 62
EPA/play, defense
Georgia State · 56Arkansas State · 24
Success rate, offense
Georgia State · 79Arkansas State · 82
Success rate, defense
Georgia State · 68Arkansas State ·…
Explosive-play rate, offense
Georgia State · 54Arkansas State · 19
Explosive-play rate, defense
Georgia State · 63Arkansas State · 48
Rush EPA, offense
Georgia State · 66Arkansas State · 66
Rush EPA, defense
Georgia State · 29Arkansas State · 41
Pass EPA, offense
Georgia State · 89Arkansas State · 53
Pass EPA, defense
Georgia State · 80Arkansas State · 3

The series

Arkansas State leads the series 7-2

9 meetings since 2013 · Arkansas State won the last meeting

Arkansas State wonGeorgia State won2013: Arkansas State by 22014: Arkansas State by 422015: Arkansas State by 142016: Arkansas State by 152018: Arkansas State by 162019: Georgia State by 142020: Arkansas State by 72021: Georgia State by 82024: Arkansas State by 720132024
  • 2024Arkansas State 27-20Arkansas State won 27-20 at Georgia State. Chance to win started at 50%, low 24%, high 97%.
  • 2021Georgia State 28-20
  • 2020Arkansas State 59-52Arkansas State won 59-52 vs Georgia State. Chance to win started at 53%, low 24%, high 97%.
  • 2019Georgia State 52-38Arkansas State lost 38-52 at Georgia State. Chance to win started at 65%, low 1%, high 65%.
  • 2018Arkansas State 51-35Arkansas State won 51-35 vs Georgia State. Chance to win started at 83%, low 83%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Arkansas State’s chance to win through that meeting. Arkansas State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Georgia State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (89th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 46% · Line 42%Arkansas State fans · 34thGeorgia State fans · 89thGeorgia StateArkansas State

Georgia State favored by 2.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Georgia State by 2.5, on the usual path until 0:27 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Georgia State.

opened +1.5now +2.5

The total rose 3 points.

opened 55.5now 58.5

Spread: +1.5 → +2.5 · Total: 55.5 → 58.5

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Arkansas State is worth +4.4 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 56th percentile.

52% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (22-20 home, 16-35 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.9 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 385 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings