Georgia State beats Northern Illinois 35-14

Team pages: Northern Illinois · Georgia State

Northern Illinois0-414
Georgia State3-135Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. · Crowd 16,608ESPN+

Georgia State beat Northern Illinois 35-14.

We had Georgia State favored. It won.

Next: Northern Illinois lost to Air Force 28-7, Sat Oct 10

Next: Georgia State beat Old Dominion 42-10, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Stone 100-yd kickoff return TD, Georgia State goes ahead 21-14 (Q2, 12:08). Georgia State went from 69% to 89% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Georgia State a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Georgia State was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.

Favored the whole way: Georgia State never fell below 68%.

Northern Illinois never had better than a 31% chance.

Kickoff return TDGeorgia State · Q2 12:08Non-QB touchdown passGeorgia State · Q3 1:25
FinalGeorgia State 35-14 Northern IllinoisGeorgia State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q490% at halfGeorgia StateWon35-1412−18+20ScoresNon-QB touchdown pass
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q490% at halfGeorgia StateWon35-1412ScoresNon-QB touchdown pass
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q410% at halfGeorgia StateLowest 0%Lost14-3512+18−20ScoresNon-QB touchdown pass
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q410% at halfGeorgia StateLowest 0%Lost14-3512ScoresNon-QB touchdown pass

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 12:21Dickens 22-yd TD pass to Rogers, ties it 14-14Georgia State 87% → 69% (−18)
  2. 2Q2 12:08Special teamsStone 100-yd kickoff return TD, Georgia State goes ahead 21-14Georgia State 69% → 89% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 12:21Dickens 22-yd TD pass to Rogers, ties it 14-14Northern Illinois 13% → 31% (+18)
  2. 2Q2 12:08Special teamsStone 100-yd kickoff return TD, Georgia State goes ahead 21-14Northern Illinois 31% → 11% (−20)
Georgia State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Georgia State -8.5), at 84% for Georgia State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Georgia State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 14:00Brown 5-yd TD pass to McBrideGeorgia State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 14:00 · Georgia State 7, Northern Illinois 0▲2%Georgia State’s chance to win, 84% to 86%▲2%Georgia State’s chance to win, 84% to 86%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 1:58Johnson 14-yd TD runties it 7-7Q1, 1:58 · Georgia State 7, Northern Illinois 7▼12%Georgia State’s chance to win, 86% to 74%▼12%Georgia State’s chance to win, 86% to 74%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 13:55Brown 18-yd TD pass to DorseyGeorgia State goes ahead 14-7Q2, 13:55 · Georgia State 14, Northern Illinois 7▲12%Georgia State’s chance to win, 78% to 90%▲12%Georgia State’s chance to win, 78% to 90%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 12:21Dickens 22-yd TD pass to Rogersties it 14-14Q2, 12:21 · Georgia State 14, Northern Illinois 14▼18%Georgia State’s chance to win, 87% to 69%▼18%Georgia State’s chance to win, 87% to 69%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 12:08Stone 100-yd kickoff return TDGeorgia State goes ahead 21-14Q2, 12:08 · Georgia State 21, Northern Illinois 14▲20%Georgia State’s chance to win, 69% to 89%▲20%Georgia State’s chance to win, 69% to 89%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q2, 0:57Brown intercepted by Conyers at the NIU25returned 41 yardsQ2, 0:57 · Georgia State 21, Northern Illinois 14▼5%Georgia State’s chance to win, 89% to 84%▼5%Georgia State’s chance to win, 89% to 84%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Georgia State scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Northern Illinois on 2 of its 11.

Georgia State’s drives are teal, Northern Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Georgia State: Touchdown, from 0 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Illinois: Missed field goal, from 73 yards out to 20Missed FGGeorgia State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 63PuntNorthern Illinois: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Northern Illinois: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 100 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Illinois: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntGeorgia State: Punt, from 74 yards out to 84PuntNorthern Illinois: Turned over on downs, from 63 yards out to 20DownsGeorgia State: Interception, from 80 yards out to 45InterceptionNorthern Illinois: Punt, from 34 yards out to 42PuntGeorgia State: End of half, from 90 yards out to 89End of halfQ3Georgia State: Punt, from 71 yards out to 64PuntNorthern Illinois: Punt, from 82 yards out to 64PuntGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Illinois: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Illinois: Fumble, from 80 yards out to 12FumbleQ4Georgia State: Punt, from 88 yards out to 69PuntNorthern Illinois: Turned over on downs, from 82 yards out to 25DownsGeorgia State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 61FumbleNorthern Illinois: Turned over on downs, from 39 yards out to 43DownsGeorgia State: End of game, from 57 yards out to 39End of game

From Northern Illinois’s side

Northern Illinois’s best moment: Dickens 22-yd TD pass to Rogers, ties it 14-14 (Q2 12:21). It lifted Northern Illinois’s win chance by 18 points.

Box score

Georgia State 35, Northern Illinois 14

Georgia State covered −8.5 by 12.5. The total, 49, stayed under 56.5.

Northern IllinoisGeorgia StateTotal yardsNorthern Illinois 432Georgia State 342432342Passing yardsNorthern Illinois 320Georgia State 198320198Rushing yardsNorthern Illinois 112Georgia State 144112144First downsNorthern Illinois 24Georgia State 172417TurnoversNorthern Illinois 2Georgia State 222Time of possessionNorthern Illinois 33:11Georgia State 26:4933:1126:49
Team totalsNorthern IllinoisGeorgia State
Total yards432342
Passing28 of 42, 320 yds15 of 22, 198 yds
Rushing31 for 112 yds35 for 144 yds
First downs2417
Third down3 of 136 of 12
Fourth down1 of 41 of 1
Turnovers22
Penalties3 for 35 yds5 for 53 yds
Time of possession33:1126:49

Northern Illinois leaders

  • Passing Taron Dickens 28 of 42, 320 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Telly Johnson Jr. 15 for 85 yds, 1 TD; Jaidaun Cranford 3 for 43 yds
  • Receiving DeAree Rogers 9 for 107 yds, 1 TD; La'Don Bryant 6 for 70 yds

Georgia State leaders

  • Passing Cameran Brown 14 of 21, 148 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Lanear McCrary Jr. 21 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Cameran Brown 2 for 18 yds
  • Receiving Rodshaun Dorsey 5 for 114 yds, 2 TD; Kyle Washington 1 for 21 yds

No rain and calm

78° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the northwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 21

September game-day temperatures at Center Parc Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Georgia State favoredNorthern Illinois favored100%Win chanceGeorgia StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Georgia State favoredNorthern Illinois favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 12:08 left2:57 p.m.
Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 21 · Georgia State 89% to win
no rain · wind 6 mph from the north-northwest, gusts to 15 · 79°
Stone 100-yd kickoff return TD, Georgia State goes ahead 21-14

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Atlanta International Airport, 7.9 miles away, and Atlanta/fulton Co. airport, 8.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Northern Illinois · 0-3

Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 108th now.

Three straight losses.

L 17-42 @ ArizonaTop 25 #28 of 668

lost by 25 as a 34.5-point underdog

Northern Illinois lost 17-42 at Arizona. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 10%.

L 24-28 vs Illinois State #107 of 668

lost by 4 as a 2.5-point underdog

Northern Illinois lost 24-28 vs Illinois State. Chance to win started at 52%, low 5%, high 77%.

L 0-40 @ IowaTop 25 #13 of 668

lost by 40 as a 31.5-point underdog

Northern Illinois lost 0-40 at Iowa. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

Last three games

Georgia State · 2-1

Rated 155th in our preseason ratings, 128th now, up 27 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 14-point win over Kennesaw State as a 7.5-point underdog.

L 30-44 @ UCF #94 of 668

lost by 14 as a 17.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 30-44 at UCF. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 30%.

W 31-17 @ Kennesaw State #149 of 668

won by 14 as a 7.5-point underdog

Georgia State won 31-17 at Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 24%, low 23%, high better than 99%.

W 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T #264 of 668

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Georgia State won 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T. Chance to win started at 97%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Georgia State

Wk 1: W 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T▲49N. Carolina A&TWk 2: W 31-17 at Kennesaw State▲14Kennesaw StateWk 3: L 30-44 at UCF▼14UCF
  • Wk 1Wvs North Carolina A&T59-10
  • Wk 2Wat Kennesaw State31-17
  • Wk 3Lat UCF30-44

Northern Illinois

Wk 1: L 0-40 at Iowa▼40IowaWk 2: L 24-28 vs Illinois State▼4Illinois StateWk 3: L 17-42 at Arizona▼25Arizona
  • Wk 1Lat Iowa0-40
  • Wk 2Lvs Illinois State24-28
  • Wk 3Lat Arizona17-42

Power rating by week

Northern Illinois is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-5-8Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Georgia StateNorthern Illinois

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against Georgia State, 81 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against Georgia State’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Northern Illinois offense, 9th percentile · Georgia State defense, 90th

  2. Georgia State’s success rate against Northern Illinois’s defense

    76 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 77th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 1st

  3. Northern Illinois’s explosive plays against Georgia State’s defense

    24 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Northern Illinois offense, 42nd percentile · Georgia State defense, 66th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Northern IllinoisGeorgia State
EPA/play, offense
Northern Illinois · 5Georgia State · 74
EPA/play, defense
Northern Illinois · 11Georgia State · 68
Success rate, offense
Northern Illinois · 8Georgia State · 77
Success rate, defense
Northern Illinois · 1Georgia State · 71
Explosive-play rate, offense
Northern Illinois · 42Georgia State · 48
Explosive-play rate, defense
Northern Illinois · 53Georgia State · 66
Rush EPA, offense
Northern Illinois · 21Georgia State · 50
Rush EPA, defense
Northern Illinois · 5Georgia State · 39
Pass EPA, offense
Northern Illinois · 9Georgia State · 92
Pass EPA, defense
Northern Illinois · 100Georgia State · 90

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Georgia State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (53rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 63%
  • Line · 75%
  • Georgia State fans · 53rd
  • Northern Illinois fans · 34th

Georgia State favored by 8.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Georgia State by 8.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total rose 2 points.

opened 54.5now 56.5

Total: 54.5 → 56.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 79° at kickoff.

Northern Illinois at Georgia State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta

  • 79°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 87weather score, Mixed
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Center Parc Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 87 at 2 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • noon: 92, Comfortable
  • 12:45 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 2 pm: 87, Mixed (this game)
  • 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
  • 4 pm: 87, Mixed
  • 5 pm: 94, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Georgia State is worth +4.1 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 50th percentile.

44% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (20-25 home, 14-35 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 615 miles to get here.

Where next