Coastal Carolina beats Georgia State 31-20

Team pages: Coastal Carolina · Georgia State

Coastal Carolina3-531
Georgia State4-420Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. · Crowd 13,681ESPN+

Coastal Carolina beat Georgia State 31-20.

We had Georgia State favored. Coastal Carolina won.

Next: Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET · Coastal Carolina favored by 7

Next: Georgia State at App State, Sat Nov 7 · 2:30 PM ET · Georgia State underdog by 5.5

How it swung

The turning point: Bailey 2-yd run (Q4, 1:50). Coastal Carolina went from 95% to 78% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Coastal Carolina a 32% chance, and the closing betting line (Coastal Carolina was a 3.5-point underdog) put it at 39%.

A tight one: Coastal Carolina bottomed out at 25% and won.

Up to 75% in the second quarter, then Georgia State lost it.

FinalCoastal Carolina 31-20 Georgia StateCoastal Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q471% at halfLowest 25%Won31-2012−13−17Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q471% at halfLowest 25%Won31-2012Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q429% at halfHigh 75%Lost20-3112+13+17Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q429% at halfHigh 75%Lost20-3112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 0:00Layous 32-yd field goal, cuts it to 17-6Coastal Carolina 84% → 71% (−13)
  2. 2Q4 1:50Bailey 2-yd runCoastal Carolina 95% → 78% (−17)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 0:00Layous 32-yd field goal, cuts it to 17-6Georgia State 16% → 29% (+13)
  2. 2Q4 1:50Bailey 2-yd runGeorgia State 5% → 22% (+17)
Coastal Carolina’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Georgia State -3.5), at 33% for Coastal Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Coastal Carolina’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q2, 10:29Bailey 21-yd TD pass to CoppockCoastal Carolina goes ahead 7-3Q2, 10:29 · Coastal Carolina 7, Georgia State 3▲11%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 39% to 50%▲11%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 39% to 50%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 1:51Bailey 25-yd TD pass to CourtneyCoastal Carolina leads 17-3Q2, 1:51 · Coastal Carolina 17, Georgia State 3▲11%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 74% to 85%▲11%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 74% to 85%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q3, 11:08Bailey intercepted by Kelly at the CCU41Q3, 11:08 · Coastal Carolina 17, Georgia State 6▼6%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 77% to 71%▼6%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 77% to 71%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q3, 5:15Bailey 31-yd TD pass to CoppockCoastal Carolina leads 24-6Q3, 5:15 · Coastal Carolina 24, Georgia State 6▲11%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 82% to 93%▲11%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 82% to 93%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 1:14Allen-Hendrix 2-yd TD runCoastal Carolina leads 31-6Q3, 1:14 · Coastal Carolina 31, Georgia State 6▲2%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 96% to 98%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q4, 11:59Pereira 9-yd TD pass to Holliercuts it to 31-14Q4, 11:59 · Coastal Carolina 31, Georgia State 1431-14score after the play31-14score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 7:38Pereira 18-yd TD pass to Rilescuts it to 31-20Q4, 7:38 · Coastal Carolina 31, Georgia State 20▼2%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 94% to 92%▼2%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 94% to 92%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Coastal Carolina scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Georgia State on 4 of its 12.

Coastal Carolina’s drives are teal, Georgia State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Coastal Carolina: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 25Missed FGGeorgia State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Field goalCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 81 yards out to 61PuntQ2Georgia State: Punt, from 88 yards out to 84PuntCoastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 30 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 84PuntCoastal Carolina: Field goal, from 61 yards out to 35Field goalGeorgia State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Missed FGCoastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Field goalQ3Georgia State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 49PuntCoastal Carolina: Interception, from 86 yards out to 71InterceptionGeorgia State: Punt, from 41 yards out to 46PuntCoastal Carolina: Interception, from 80 yards out to 74InterceptionCoastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 84PuntCoastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Coastal Carolina: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 82FumbleGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 18 yards out to 0TouchdownCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 86PuntGeorgia State: Turned over on downs, from 48 yards out to 45DownsCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 55 yards out to 43PuntGeorgia State: End of game, from 85 yards out to 45End of game

From Georgia State’s side

Georgia State’s best moment: Bailey 2-yd run (Q4 1:50). It lifted Georgia State’s win chance by 17 points.

What it cost

Georgia State’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.

Win the conference

Coastal Carolina · won0% → ▲1%
Georgia State · lost3% → ▼1%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Coastal Carolina plays vs Old Dominion on Sat Nov 7 with a 1% chance to win the conference. Georgia State plays at App State on Sat Nov 7 with a 1% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Coastal Carolina 31, Georgia State 20

Coastal Carolina covered +3.5 by 14.5. The total, 51, stayed under 55.5.

Coastal CarolinaGeorgia StateTotal yardsCoastal Carolina 375Georgia State 360375360Passing yardsCoastal Carolina 302Georgia State 200302200Rushing yardsCoastal Carolina 73Georgia State 16073160First downsCoastal Carolina 22Georgia State 192219TurnoversCoastal Carolina 3Georgia State 131Time of possessionCoastal Carolina 32:27Georgia State 27:3332:2727:33
Team totalsCoastal CarolinaGeorgia State
Total yards375360
Passing23 of 33, 302 yds20 of 37, 200 yds
Rushing35 for 73 yds32 for 160 yds
First downs2219
Third down4 of 135 of 15
Fourth down2 of 21 of 2
Turnovers31
Penalties8 for 65 yds9 for 96 yds
Time of possession32:2727:33

Coastal Carolina leaders

  • Passing Deuce Bailey 22 of 32, 297 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Dominic Knicely 12 for 32 yds; Jaden Allen-Hendrix 6 for 14 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Clayton Coppock 6 for 100 yds, 2 TD; Zach Courtney 4 for 89 yds, 1 TD

Georgia State leaders

  • Passing Ayden Pereira 20 of 37, 200 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Qwantavius Wiggins 11 for 96 yds; Ayden Pereira 13 for 33 yds
  • Receiving Grant Hollier 3 for 52 yds, 1 TD; DJ Riles 6 for 44 yds, 1 TD

No rain, gusts to 28 mph

70° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 16 mph from the east, mostly across the field, gusts to 28

A 28 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 92% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 28 mph060 mph
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 28 mph060 mph

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

October game-day temperatures at Center Parc Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Georgia State favoredCoastal Carolina favored0%Win chanceGeorgia StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph28 mph gust
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Georgia State favoredCoastal Carolina favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour204028 mph gust

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:50 left5:28 p.m.
Coastal Carolina 31, Georgia State 20 · Georgia State 22% to win
no rain · wind 15 mph from the east, mostly across the field, gusts to 22 · 69°
Bailey 2-yd run

Jump to

The same game in two conditions

Wind 15 mph or moreLighter wind
Runs and passes7728
Share that were passes52%54%
Yards per play5.46.8
Turnovers02
The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result.
How this is countedWind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Atlanta International Airport, 7.9 miles away, and Atlanta/fulton Co. airport, 8.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Coastal Carolina · 2-5

Rated 231st in our preseason ratings, 160th now, up 71 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 6-point win over Marshall as a 4.5-point underdog.

L 32-35 vs App State No. 119 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 32-35 vs App State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 1%, high 84%.

W 27-21 @ Marshall No. 96 of 668 teams

won by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina won 27-21 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 37%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

L 24-31 vs Georgia Southern No. 93 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 24-31 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 52%.

L 17-34 vs Liberty No. 83 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 17-34 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 56%, low under 1%, high 75%.

L 14-22 @ Delaware No. 47 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 4.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 14-22 at Delaware. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 69%.

W 45-7 vs Fordham No. 253 of 668 teams

won by 38 as a 36.5-point favorite

Coastal Carolina won 45-7 vs Fordham. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 24-31 @ West Virginia No. 188 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 21-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 24-31 at West Virginia. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 6%.

Last three games

Georgia State · 4-3

Rated 155th in our preseason ratings, 104th now, up 51 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 32-38 @ Arkansas State No. 112 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite

Georgia State lost 32-38 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 43%, low 2%, high 52%.

L 22-49 @ James Madison No. 37 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 7.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 22-49 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 24%.

W 42-10 vs Old Dominion No. 113 of 668 teams

won by 32 as a 1.5-point favorite

Georgia State won 42-10 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 63%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Georgia State

Wk 3: L 30-44 at UCF▼14UCFWk 4: W 35-14 vs Northern Illinois▲21N. Illin…Wk 5: W 42-10 vs Old Dominion▲32Old Domi…Wk 7: L 22-49 at James Madison▼27James Ma…Wk 8: L 32-38 at Arkansas State▼6A. St.
  • Wk 3Lat UCF30-44
  • Wk 4Wvs Northern Illinois35-14
  • Wk 5Wvs Old Dominion42-10
  • Wk 7Lat James Madison22-49
  • Wk 8Lat Arkansas State32-38

Coastal Carolina

Wk 3: L 14-22 at Delaware▼8DelawareWk 4: L 17-34 vs Liberty▼17LibertyWk 5: L 24-31 vs Georgia Southern▼7G. South…Wk 6: W 27-21 at Marshall▲6MarshallWk 7: L 32-35 vs App State▼3App State
  • Wk 3Lat Delaware14-22
  • Wk 4Lvs Liberty17-34
  • Wk 5Lvs Georgia Southern24-31
  • Wk 6Wat Marshall27-21
  • Wk 7Lvs App State32-35

Power rating by week

Georgia State is rated 4.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-6-12Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Georgia StateCoastal Carolina

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Georgia State’s passing EPA against Coastal Carolina, 77 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Georgia State’s passing EPA against Coastal Carolina’s defense

    77 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 85th percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 8th

  2. Georgia State’s success rate against Coastal Carolina’s defense

    56 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 72nd percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 16th

  3. Georgia State’s explosive plays against Coastal Carolina’s defense

    31 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 53rd percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 84th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Coastal CarolinaGeorgia State
EPA/play, offense
Coastal Carolina · 53Georgia State · 69
EPA/play, defense
Coastal Carolina · 32Georgia State · 58
Success rate, offense
Coastal Carolina · 34Georgia State · 72
Success rate, defense
Coastal Carolina…Georgia State · 67
Explosive-play rate, offense
Coastal Carolina · 90Georgia State · 53
Explosive-play rate, defense
Coastal Carolina ·…Georgia State · 63
Rush EPA, offense
Coastal Carolina · 46Georgia State · 70
Rush EPA, defense
Coastal Carolina · 36Georgia State · 42
Pass EPA, offense
Coastal Carolina · 64Georgia State ·…
Pass EPA, defense
Coastal Carolina · 8Georgia State · 68

The series

Coastal Carolina leads the series 5-4

9 meetings since 2017 · Coastal Carolina has won the last 2

Georgia State wonCoastal Carolina won2017: Georgia State by 62018: Coastal Carolina by 32019: Georgia State by 102020: Coastal Carolina by 512021: Georgia State by 22022: Coastal Carolina by 172023: Georgia State by 132024: Coastal Carolina by 212025: Coastal Carolina by 1320172025
  • 2025Coastal Carolina 40-27Georgia State lost 27-40 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 29%.
  • 2024Coastal Carolina 48-27Georgia State lost 27-48 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 51%, low under 1%, high 57%.
  • 2023Georgia State 30-17Georgia State won 30-17 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 40%, low 39%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022Coastal Carolina 41-24Georgia State lost 24-41 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 26%, low 1%, high 28%.
  • 2021Georgia State 42-40Georgia State won 42-40 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 20%, low 9%, high 91%.

Each line is Georgia State’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Coastal Carolina fans are in a better mood than Georgia State fans (99th percentile vs 79th among FBS fanbases), even with Georgia State favored.

50-50Model 68% · Line 61%Georgia State fan…Coastal Carolina fans · 99thCoastal CarolinaGeorgia State

Georgia State favored by 3.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Georgia State by 3.5, on the usual path until 0:05 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Coastal Carolina.

opened −6.5now −3.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 57.5now 55.5

Spread: −6.5 → −3.5 · Total: 57.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Georgia State is worth +3.9 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 45th percentile.

43% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (20-26 home, 14-36 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 309 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings