Georgia State at App State
Georgia State (4‑4) at App State (5‑3) — App State is favored by 5.5. Georgia State’s passing offense is at the 85th percentile; App State’s pass defense is at the 45th.
How they got here
Last three games
Georgia State · 4-4
Rated 155th in our preseason ratings, 117th now, up 38 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
App State · 5-3
Rated 98th in our preseason ratings, 109th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over James Madison as a 12.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Georgia State’s passing EPA against App State, 40 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Georgia State’s passing EPA against App State’s defense
Georgia State offense, 85th percentile · App State defense, 45th
Georgia State’s explosive plays against App State’s defense
Georgia State offense, 53rd percentile · App State defense, 85th
Georgia State’s success rate against App State’s defense
Georgia State offense, 73rd percentile · App State defense, 43rd
What’s at stake
Georgia State
- Georgia State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 80% to get there with a win here, 38% with a loss.
- Dell McGee is behind Shawn Elliott’s year-3 pace (4-4 vs. 6-2) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
App State
- App State needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 89% with a loss.
- Dowell Loggains is behind Shawn Clark’s year-2 pace (5-3 vs. 6-2) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
App State leads the series 12-0
12 meetings since 2014 · App State has won the last 12
- 2025App State 41-20
- 2024App State 33-26
- 2023App State 42-14
- 2022App State 42-17
- 2021App State 45-16
Each line is App State’s chance to win through that meeting. App State is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Georgia State
The chip · vs big brotherEveryone in the metro grew up a Georgia or Georgia Tech fan; Panther fans are the ones who chose the new thing, and they're tired of being told a 2010 startup downtown can't be anybody's real team.
What this game touches
The 1-11 floor. After Shawn Elliott got the Panthers to four bowls, Dell McGee's second year collapsed to 1-11 (0-8), the lone win over an FCS team, nine of eleven losses by double digits — a reminder of how thin the foundation still is when a young program loses its footing.
App State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsFans here believe the chip is one game wide and forty years deep: App State walked into Michigan Stadium in 2007 and won, and the blue bloods have spent every year since pretending it was an accident. Boone hasn't forgotten, and won't let them.
What this game touches
The 2025 collapse — and the G5 ceiling underneath it. A program built on punching up went 5-8 in Dowell Loggains' first season — a 4-2 start, then six losses in seven — a stumble that fed the oldest fear in Boone: that the giant-killer's best days were the mountain-FCS ones.
Best players
Georgia State
- Jaydon Hood (LB) · 49 tackles
- Coby Owens (LB) · 44 tackles
- Rodshaun Dorsey (WR) · 459 receiving yards
App State
- Colton Phares (LB) · 63 tackles
- Kaleb Purdy (DB) · 50 tackles
- Alex Mitchell (LB) · 48 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Cameran Brown (QB) — Georgia State’s leading passer (1,356 passing yards) takes on App State’s pass defense (45th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward App State since opening (−3.5 → −5.5).
The total has moved down 2.0 points since opening (57.5 → 55.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
App State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (84th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 57%
- Line · 67%
- App State fans · 84th
- Georgia State fans · 79th
App State favored by 5.5 · Total 55.5
App State by 5.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
App State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Kidd Brewer Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 92
Georgia State at App State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 2:30 pm ET · Kidd Brewer Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Kidd Brewer Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm 90, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 92, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
App State is worth +5.0 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.
77% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (34-10 home, 24-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.1 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 230 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
App State
- Wk 4Lat NC State31-41
- Wk 6Lvs Old Dominion3-10
- Wk 7Wat Coastal Carolina35-32
- Wk 8Wvs James Madison34-31
- Wk 9Lat Georgia Southern3-19
Georgia State
- Wk 4Wvs Northern Illinois35-14
- Wk 5Wvs Old Dominion42-10
- Wk 7Lat James Madison22-49
- Wk 8Lat Arkansas State32-38
- Wk 9Lvs Coastal Carolina20-31
Power rating by week
App State is rated 0.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward App State.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −5.5 · Total: 57.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- App State5th2-2
- Georgia State13th1-3