The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Louisiana 12%
Win out <1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Coastal Carolina's chance to win each game left, from our model: Old Dominion 61%, Arkansas State 46%, Louisiana 12%, James Madison 13%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 32% to 17%, peaking at 49% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Sun Belt · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Deuce Bailey 1,935 · Rushing Dominic Knicely 484 · Receiving Clayton Coppock 350 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Coastal Carolina:athletics siteX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #231 | #182 | +21✓ +14 | @West Virginia | L 24-31 139 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Bailey 373 · Rush Edwards 20 · Rec Coppock 83 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #228 | #249 | −36.5✓ +1.5 | Fordham | W 45-7 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Bailey 203 · Rush Allen-Hendrix 58 · Rec Hinton 101 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #186 | #41 | +4.5✗ −3.5 | @Delaware | L 14-22 124 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Bailey 250 · Rush Edwards 49 · Rec Lawrence 62 |
| 4 | Sep 24 | #156 | #99 | +2.5✗ −14.5 | Liberty | L 17-34 129 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Bailey 213 · Rush Bailey 31 · Rec Gardner 86 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #170 | #84 | +2.5✗ −4.5 | Georgia Southern | L 24-31 126 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Bailey 228 · Rush Knicely 74 · Rec English 81 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #169 | #73 | +4.5✓ +10.5 | @Marshall | W 27-21 141 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Bailey 73 · Rush Knicely 169 · Rec Knicely 42 |
| 7 | Oct 16 | #160 | #114 | +1.5✗ −1.5 | App State | L 32-35 139 | 2-5 | 1-2 | Pass Bailey 298 · Rush Knicely 90 · Rec Washington 118 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #160 | #104 | +3.5✓ +14.5 | @Georgia State | W 31-20 137 | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Bailey 297 · Rush Knicely 32 · Rec Coppock 100 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #143 | #165 | −7 | Old Dominion | 1 pm ET61% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #140 | #115 | Arkansas State | time TBA46% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Louisiana | time TBA12% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @James Madison | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Coastal Carolina, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Coastal Carolina: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Georgia State | W 31-20 | 375 | 3 | 32:27 | +0.079 | 41.2% | 1.26 | |
| Oct 16 | App State | L 32-35 | 437 | 1 | 26:43 | +0.228 | 49.2% | 1.35 | Best success rate |
| Oct 10 | @Marshall | W 27-21 | 308 | 1 | 30:51 | +0.034 | 28.6% | 1.43 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | Georgia Southern | L 24-31 | 370 | 2 | 33:26 | +0.059 | 41.8% | 0.86 | One-score loss |
| Sep 24 | Liberty | L 17-34 | 292 | 2 | 27:19 | -0.071 | 26.6% | 2.00 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Delaware | L 14-22 | 385 | 2 | 27:52 | +0.289 | 47.6% | 1.31 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Fordham | W 45-7 | 460 | 0 | 29:55 | +0.238 | 47.1% | 1.26 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | @West Virginia | L 24-31 | 425 | 2 | 27:04 | +0.219 | 43.1% | 1.51 | One-score loss |
| Season average (8 games) | 382 | 1.6 | +0.134 | 40.6% | 1.37 | ||||
Coastal Carolina's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
I don’t know that I’ve been part of a game that you fumble the ball through the end zone twice in one game. We have taken some steps internally to change practice structure and how we evaluate the practice film
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Beard, who previously coached at Missouri State, inherits a 6-7 roster and 97% returning production — the program's third head coach in five years means the identity anchor is whether.
Statusdeveloping
Ryan Beard's first season at Coastal Carolina follows a 6-7 losing record, raising questions about whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate a program still struggling in the bottom 25% of FBS power ratings.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Coastal Carolina · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 16%; 4 wins 44%; 5 wins 33%; 6 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Ryan Beard took over as Coastal Carolina's head coach, replacing Jeremiah Johnson. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The hire has left the front page. The roster and the recruiting pipeline are the measure now. Coverage has moved to other stories.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 11 of 557 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 5 of 557 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Coastal Carolina is the program that turned a teal field, a rooster mascot, and one undefeated month in 2020 into the most fun story college football had ever seen from a school that barely existed at this level.
Chanticleer fans heard the whole sport ask 'where is that?' during the 2020 run — and they say the same people who couldn't find Conway on a map were the ones most eager to call the whole thing an…
Coastal Carolina · Game-day weather
Typical at Brooks Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 88
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Coastal Carolina is the Sun Belt program whose 2020 11-1 + #14 final AP + teal turf + Jamey Chadwell era turned a 2017 FBS newcomer into national G5 disruptor.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Coastal Carolina · 2026