Sun Belt Marshall

Head coach Tony Gibson · 2nd season · 10-10 at Marshall

Record5-32-2 Sun Belt · T-4th
Conference title5%to win the Sun Belt
Nextat Georgia SouthernSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET

The rest of the season

Three real tests left: Georgia Southern 46%, App State 58%, Georgia State 63%

Win out 14% · expect 2.5 of 4 more wins

Marshall's chance to win each game left, from our model: Georgia Southern 46%, App State 58%, Georgia State 63%, UL Monroe 83%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Conference title chance went from 15% to 5%, peaking at 15% before a game

15%7%L5%W7%W3%L<1%L3%W5%W

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 4th in the Sun Belt · 2-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 1,080 · Rushing Judah Price 319 · Receiving Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 372 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#79 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #111 (-10.7) · FPI #118
The marketGeorgia Southern by 10.5Betting line at Georgia Southern · our model 46% Marshall

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Marshall:athletics siteXYouTubeInstagram

Schedule and results

Marshall · 2026 schedule and results5-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #23 to #98
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#23#46+23.5✗ −21.5@Penn StateL 0-45 126Marshall lost 0-45 at Penn State. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 4%.0-10-0Pass Rio-Wilson 102 · Rush Rio-Wilson 30 · Rec Payne 55
2Sep 12#24#136−11.5✗ −9.5Middle TennesseeW 28-26 130Marshall won 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 84%, low 34%, high better than 99%.1-10-0Pass Rio-Wilson 92 · Rush Rio-Wilson 43 · Rec Turner-Bradshaw 79
3Sep 19#33#97−4✓ +2@Missouri StateW 30-24 136Marshall won 30-24 at Missouri State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 47%, high 93%.2-10-0Pass Rio-Wilson 176 · Rush Barbie 81 · Rec Turner-Bradshaw 73
4Sep 26#39#164−24.5✗ −23.5Gardner-WebbW 36-35 135Marshall won 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 96%, low 20%, high better than 99%.3-10-0Pass Rio-Wilson 386 · Rush Rio-Wilson 48 · Rec Turner-Bradshaw 131
5Oct 3#55#48+14.5✗ −13.5@James MadisonL 17-45 148Marshall lost 17-45 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 25%.3-20-1Pass Rio-Wilson 221 · Rush Barbie 44 · Rec Wilkins 62
6Oct 10#73#169−4.5✗ −10.5Coastal CarolinaL 21-27 141Marshall lost 21-27 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 63%, low under 1%, high 73%.3-30-2Pass Turner 219 · Rush Price 124 · Rec Norton 77
7Bye week
8Oct 20#103#83+1.5✓ +8.5South AlabamaW 20-13 141Marshall won 20-13 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 56%, low 38%, high 94%. Firestorm4-31-2Pass Turner 181 · Rush Wilkins 69 · Rec Payne 69
9Oct 31#98#148−3✓ +10@Old DominionW 36-23 146Marshall won 36-23 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 50%, low 50%, high better than 99%.5-32-2Pass Rio-Wilson 66 · Rush Price 82 · Rec Culliver 67
10Nov 7#88#70+10.5@Georgia Southern3:30 pm ET46% to win
11Nov 14#82#110App Statetime TBA58% to win
12Nov 21Georgia Statetime TBA63% to win
13Nov 28@UL Monroetime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Marshall, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Marshall: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@Old DominionW 36-23338135:12-0.14332.9%1.06Best defensive stand
Oct 20South AlabamaW 20-13328029:22+0.10750.0%0.87One-score win
Oct 10Coastal CarolinaL 21-27505629:09+0.04546.8%1.46One-score loss
Oct 3@James MadisonL 17-45444231:55+0.26048.8%1.10Defense's roughest night
Sep 26Gardner-WebbW 36-35569233:13+0.16341.6%1.57Most explosive
Sep 19@Missouri StateW 30-24464134:29+0.34150.7%1.11Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12Middle TennesseeW 28-26310127:14+0.10442.9%1.12One-score win
Sep 5@Penn StateL 0-45147223:47-0.16829.1%0.89Season-low EPA/play
Season average (8 games)3881.9+0.08942.8%1.15

Marshall's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Offense softMethodical, ball-controlDefense poor

Season expectations

Sun Belt title#4 in market+7,241

Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

W 36-23 at Old Dominion

Marshall fans
r/CFB
“Good win. New herd field goal record. 1st kick six. Can actually win the division. Sweet.”
3d ago
r/CFB
“ODU fans are second to none. Their team is struggling this year but the attendance still looks really strong. That's the difference between local alumni fans…”
4d ago

W 20-13 vs South Alabama

Marshall fans
r/CFB
“\o/ Hooray! I also like the mining helmets. Hope they get added to EA Sports College Football. I’ve been enjoying planning theme nights during the season.”
2w ago
r/CFB
“We play such ugly football it almost feels embarrassing when we win”
2w ago
South Alabama fans on Marshall
r/CFB
“while I do feel for Mr. Sayin, I need ESPN to know that the average viewer of South Alabama v Marshall and fans of both schools are anywhere from indifferent…”
2w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7Next: Georgia Southernat Georgia Southern · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

Marshall has won three of its last five.

5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.

Streak W2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5
The momentum coming out of that and our confidence level, it’s like a totally different team right now.
Gibson · Marshallparthenon2 days before Marshall's 2026 game against Old Dominion

Who to root for this week

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.

1 storyline developing

What Marshall’s season is really about

The open questionwhere does it go from here?

Market swing2026-10-16new

Tony Gibson's 5-7 losing record and Marshall's #97 talent rank create tension — can a middle-tier program revive its 'We Are Marshall' legacy with this roster?

What happenedMarshall Sun Belt championship odds lengthened, from 8.3% to 0.4% (down 8.0 points) between Oct 15 and Oct 16, 2026.
The contextwin total down 0.1

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredMarshall's head-coaching hire held for another season.
ReplacedMarshall's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downMarshall's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · Marshall · 2026

Marshall’s most likely regular season is 8-4. 99% of outcomes land from 6-6 to 9-3.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

5 wins 1%; 6 wins 13%; 7 wins 34%; 8 wins 38%; 9 wins 14%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 53 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3

Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game8th highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate4-1white-knucklein one-score games (5 of 8)1st most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin-6.2outgunnedavg scoring margin12th best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo70average paceoffensive plays / game6th fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.15grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)13th most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd24,076avg attendance4th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Marshall is the program that buried a team in 1970 and built a champion out of the grief — a place where football is a memorial, and where rebuilding from nothing is the oldest thing it knows how to do.

Title DroughtSince 2024 · 2 yrs

Marshall doesn't need a national villain — the fanbase carries its own standard, set in 1970 and proven every time the program rebuilds from nothing and wins anyway.

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Marshall · Game-day weather

Typical at Joan C. Edwards Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 89 to 93

  • noon: 91, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Marshall is the program whose 1970 plane-crash tragedy + 'We Are Marshall' film + Bob Pruett dynasty + Randy Moss / Chad Pennington era + 2024 Sun Belt championship define what football-resurrection looks like.

Offense: SoftStyle: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Poor
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Read the Marshall story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025Hired Tony Gibson

Roster and recruiting

Roster99% of production back, talent #97

Roster reload: Marshall

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production99%High continuity
Talent Composite#97 nationally247 composite 594.7
Portal Additions28Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses22Primary pressure: LS
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#123Depth class
DLin 5 - Terry Nwabuisi-Ezeala3.50out 5 - Sid Kaba3.90Even
current room: 295 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 4 - Brayden Hall3.50out 3 - Tayvon Nelson3.49Upgrade
current room: 190 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 3 - Jamarion Wilcox3.50out 3 - Michael Allen4.28Even
current room: 201 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Speed Merchant2024 profilehits the crease and outruns the angle
IOLin 3 - Jaquez Joiner3.50out 1 - Henry Harden1.00Need Filled
current room: 308 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 3 - Christian Hamilton3.60out 1 - K.J. Jones1.00Need Filled
current room: 189 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Kelvon Mcbride3.49out 2 - Jibreel Al-Amin3.60Even
current room: 218 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Versatile Endholds up snap after snap without a weakness to attack
Transferred in
Full roster (142 players)
UNKKendell Anderson
ATHMarvae Myers-Glover
CBAl Ashford, Charles McCartherens, Eddie Pleasant III, Jason Haggerty, Tashawn Jeter
DBAden Willis, Boogie Trotter, Brayden Hall, Caleb Clark-Glover, Cameron Smith, Camron Nti, Daniel Harris, Darrell Sweeting, Dawson Hill, Jadarius Green-McKnight, Joshua Pierre-Louis, Louikenzy Jules, Philipp Davis, Sammy Etienne
DLAli Abbasi, BJ Carter, Braydin Ward, Caden Turner, Cam Chmura, Cole Funderburk, Jacarius Clayton, Jalil Rivera-Harvey, Jamaal Whyce, Jaxson Cunningham, Kenyatta Hardge II, Mekhi Lockhart, Mikailin Warren, Mike Williams Jr., Paul Hutson III, Simeon John, Terry Nwabuisi-Ezeala, Tyas Martin
DTNate Blanc
EDGEKeydel Painter
LBAndre Parker, Andrew Hamad, Brysen Davies, Cannon Lewis, Carlito Hall, Chason Clark, Donovan Garrett, Eahjay McAdams, Jaasai Simmons, Jalen Marshall, Javae Gilmore, Jaydyn Johnson, Jayland Parker, Kelvon Mcbride, Kerion Martin, Rashawn Carr, Ryan Ayers
LSChase Ortiz, Riley Winkler
OLAndrew Dudley, Bryce Biggs, Da'Ron Parks, Drake Lanham, Eli Kaufman, Eric Meeks, Evan Ferguson, Henry Harden, Holden Grieger, Isaac Clary, Jack Laird, Jae'Von White, Jalen Slappy, Jaquez Joiner, Justyn Lyles, Logan Greer, Marwan Diab, Mason Ramsey, Morgan Scott, Parker Brault, Peyton Ellis, Robby Martin, Shunmarkus Adams, Tariq Montgomery, Tyler McDuffie, William Sandfoss, Xavier Bausley
PCooper Heimbach
PKJorge Diaz Nicolas, Samuel Guiden Krebs, Ty Powell
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson, Chase Massey, Dylan Barber, Jack Clougherty, Khalil Wilkins, Koi Fagan, Zion Turner
RBAnthony Quinn Jr., Daytione Smith, Joshon Barbie, Josiah McLaurin, Judah Price, TJ Lester, Tony Mathis Jr.
SAjani Cuevas-Gillis, Jaycee Houston, Pete Schuh, Renté Hinton, Tristan Lester, Zah Jackson, Zane Porter, Zeke Gunn
TEBrandon Hettwer, Rhett McGrew, Shawn Rouse, Toby Payne, Tracy Stephens
WRAdrian Norton, Aiden Burke, Antonio Harmon, Atley Cowan, Aumad Edwards, Ben Turner, Brennan Chambers, Bryan Robinson, Chris Culliver, Christian Hamilton, De'Andre Tamarez, Demarcus Lacey, Drew Williams, Jakolbe Baldwin, Jalyn Abercrombie, Justin Haggerty, K.J. Jones, Nico Weidmann, Nico Wiedmann, Owen Sweeney, Sherone White Jr., Tony Martin, Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw, Zavier Short
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Ethan Royal
QB · Cornelius, NC
#1351 national
★★★☆☆
Jackson Failla
QB · Exeter, NH
#1775 national
★★★☆☆
Shamar Banner
QB · Broken Arrow, OK
#2012 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Appalachian State Defeats Marshall 26-24
52 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 86% of FBS programs
↑

Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program

86th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market↑
86th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
7.5
Sportsbook win total
(57th among FBS)
Fans 29pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Rivals

Rival pulse

West Virginia
Mixed
-2
Friends of Coal Bowl

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Marshall

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site