Marshall beats Old Dominion 36-23

Team pages: Marshall · Old Dominion

Marshall5-336
Old Dominion2-723Final
Sat, Oct 31 · S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, Va. · Crowd 17,093ESPN+

Marshall beat Old Dominion 36-23.

We had Marshall favored. It won.

Next: Marshall at Georgia Southern, Sat Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET · Marshall underdog by 10.5

Next: Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET · Old Dominion underdog by 7

How it swung

The turning point: Potter incomplete to Bedgood, turnover on downs (Q4, 0:57). Marshall went from 100% to 78% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Marshall a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Marshall was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

A tight one: Marshall bottomed out at 50% and won.

Old Dominion never had better than a 50% chance.

Blocked field goal TDMarshall · Q2 0:00Pick-sixOld Dominion · Q3 13:03
FinalMarshall 36-23 Old DominionMarshall wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfMarshallWon36-2312+13+13ScoresPick-six
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfMarshallWon36-2312ScoresPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q46% at halfMarshallLowest 0%Lost23-3612−13−13ScoresPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q46% at halfMarshallLowest 0%Lost23-3612ScoresPick-six

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:57Lester 4-yd TD run, Marshall goes ahead 7-0Marshall 63% → 76% (+13)
  2. 2Q2 0:00Turner-Bradshaw 100-yd TD return of a blocked field goal, Marshall leads 27-10Marshall 81% → 94% (+13)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:57Lester 4-yd TD run, Marshall goes ahead 7-0Old Dominion 37% → 24% (−13)
  2. 2Q2 0:00Turner-Bradshaw 100-yd TD return of a blocked field goal, Marshall leads 27-10Old Dominion 19% → 6% (−13)
Marshall’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Marshall -3), at 50% for Marshall (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Marshall’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 14:34Potter sacked for a 2-yd lossfumblesQ1, 14:34 · Marshall 0, Old Dominion 0▲12%Marshall’s chance to win, 50% to 62%▲12%Marshall’s chance to win, 50% to 62%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 12:57Lester 4-yd TD runMarshall goes ahead 7-0Q1, 12:57 · Marshall 7, Old Dominion 0▲13%Marshall’s chance to win, 63% to 76%▲13%Marshall’s chance to win, 63% to 76%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q1, 6:50Lester 49-yd TD runMarshall leads 14-0Q1, 6:50 · Marshall 14, Old Dominion 0▲6%Marshall’s chance to win, 81% to 87%▲6%Marshall’s chance to win, 81% to 87%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q1, 4:19James 6-yd TD runcuts it to 14-7Q1, 4:19 · Marshall 14, Old Dominion 714-7score after the play14-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 0:00Turner-Bradshaw 100-yd TD return of a blocked field goalMarshall leads 27-10Q2, 0:00 · Marshall 27, Old Dominion 10▲13%Marshall’s chance to win, 81% to 94%▲13%Marshall’s chance to win, 81% to 94%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 13:03Turner intercepted by Crutchfield at the MU44 and returned for a TDcuts it to 27-17Q3, 13:03 · Marshall 27, Old Dominion 17▼12%Marshall’s chance to win, 93% to 81%▼12%Marshall’s chance to win, 93% to 81%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 8:05Potter intercepted by Smith at the ODU25returned 13 yardsQ4, 8:05 · Marshall 33, Old Dominion 1733-17score after the play33-17score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q4, 3:54James 14-yd TD runcuts it to 36-23Q4, 3:54 · Marshall 36, Old Dominion 23▲3%Marshall’s chance to win, 96% to 99%▲3%Marshall’s chance to win, 96% to 99%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Marshall scored on 8 of its 17 drives; Old Dominion on 3 of its 14.

Marshall’s drives are teal, Old Dominion’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Old Dominion: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 74FumbleMarshall: Touchdown, from 26 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Punt, from 92 yards out to 63PuntMarshall: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 93 yards out to 96PuntMarshall: Touchdown, from 49 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Field goal, from 68 yards out to 16Field goalOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntMarshall: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntQ2Old Dominion: Field goal, from 67 yards out to 3Field goalMarshall: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 78 yards out to 38PuntMarshall: Field goal, from 90 yards out to 12Field goalMarshall: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ3Marshall: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 71 yards out to 54Interception TDMarshall: Punt, from 98 yards out to 90PuntOld Dominion: Interception, from 34 yards out to 34InterceptionMarshall: Punt, from 80 yards out to 91PuntOld Dominion: Interception, from 61 yards out to 61InterceptionMarshall: Field goal, from 31 yards out to 16Field goalOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntMarshall: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 12Field goalQ4Old Dominion: Turned over on downs, from 57 yards out to 38DownsMarshall: Punt, from 62 yards out to 60PuntOld Dominion: Interception, from 80 yards out to 80InterceptionMarshall: Field goal, from 12 yards out to 6Field goalOld Dominion: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Punt, from 46 yards out to 48PuntOld Dominion: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 50DownsMarshall: End of game, from 50 yards out to 52End of game

From Old Dominion’s side

Old Dominion’s best moment: Potter incomplete to Bedgood, turnover on downs (Q4 0:57). It lifted Old Dominion’s win chance by 22 points.

What it cost

Marshall’s chance to win the conference rose from 3% to 4%.

Win the conference

Marshall · won3% → ▲4%
Old Dominion · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Marshall plays at Georgia Southern on Sat Nov 7 with a 4% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Marshall 36, Old Dominion 23

Marshall covered −3 by 10. The total, 59, went over 45.5.

MarshallOld DominionTotal yardsMarshall 338Old Dominion 409338409Passing yardsMarshall 142Old Dominion 329142329Rushing yardsMarshall 196Old Dominion 8019680First downsMarshall 17Old Dominion 201720TurnoversMarshall 1Old Dominion 414Time of possessionMarshall 35:12Old Dominion 24:4835:1224:48
Team totalsMarshallOld Dominion
Total yards338409
Passing8 of 18, 142 yds23 of 45, 329 yds
Rushing54 for 196 yds29 for 80 yds
First downs1720
Third down2 of 145 of 13
Fourth down0 of 00 of 2
Turnovers14
Penalties12 for 94 yds10 for 92 yds
Time of possession35:1224:48

Marshall leaders

  • Passing Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 3 of 9, 66 yds
  • Rushing Judah Price 15 for 82 yds; TJ Lester 8 for 76 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Chris Culliver 2 for 67 yds; Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 1 for 37 yds

Old Dominion leaders

  • Passing Jaxon Potter 23 of 44, 329 yds, 3 INT
  • Rushing Trey Hall 8 for 41 yds; Maurki James 7 for 30 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Josh Rodriguez 9 for 143 yds; Kendall Harris 4 for 79 yds

No rain through the game

61° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at S.B. Ballard Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Old Dominion favoredMarshall favored0%Win chanceOld DominionRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Old Dominion favoredMarshall favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:57 left4:32 p.m.
Marshall 36, Old Dominion 23 · Old Dominion 22% to win
no rain · 61°
Potter incomplete to Bedgood, turnover on downs

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Norfolk Nas/chamber airport, 3.5 miles away, and Norfolk International Airport, 6.3 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Marshall · 4-3

Rated 23rd in our preseason ratings, 98th now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over South Alabama as a 1.5-point underdog.

W 20-13 vs South Alabama No. 94 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

Marshall won 20-13 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 56%, low 38%, high 94%.

L 21-27 vs Coastal Carolina No. 160 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite

Marshall lost 21-27 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 63%, low under 1%, high 73%.

L 17-45 @ James Madison No. 39 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 14.5-point underdog

Marshall lost 17-45 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 25%.

W 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb No. 142 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 24.5-point favorite

Marshall won 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 96%, low 20%, high better than 99%.

W 30-24 @ Missouri State No. 97 of 668 teams

won by 6 as a 4-point favorite

Marshall won 30-24 at Missouri State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 47%, high 93%.

W 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee No. 128 of 668 teams

won by 2 as an 11.5-point favorite

Marshall won 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 84%, low 34%, high better than 99%.

L 0-45 @ Penn StateTop 25 No. 38 of 668 teams

lost by 45 as a 23.5-point underdog

Marshall lost 0-45 at Penn State. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 4%.

Last three games

Old Dominion · 2-6

Rated 65th in our preseason ratings, 148th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 7-point win over App State as an 8.5-point underdog.

L 0-26 @ Louisiana Tech No. 55 of 668 teams

lost by 26 as a 13.5-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 0-26 at Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 14%.

L 15-23 vs Georgia Southern No. 70 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 3-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 15-23 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 48%, low under 1%, high 74%.

W 10-3 @ App State No. 114 of 668 teams

won by 7 as an 8.5-point underdog

Old Dominion won 10-3 at App State. Chance to win started at 21%, low 15%, high 95%.

L 10-42 @ Georgia State No. 95 of 668 teams

lost by 32 as a 1.5-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 10-42 at Georgia State. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 54%.

L 20-46 vs James Madison No. 48 of 668 teams

lost by 26 as a 7-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 20-46 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 36%.

L 17-20 vs East Carolina No. 82 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Old Dominion lost 17-20 vs East Carolina. Chance to win started at 65%, low 22%, high 88%.

L 21-44 @ Virginia Tech No. 43 of 668 teams

lost by 23 as a 17.5-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 21-44 at Virginia Tech. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 31-10 vs Norfolk State No. 247 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 41.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 31-10 vs Norfolk State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Old Dominion

Wk 4: L 20-46 vs James Madison▼26James Ma…Wk 5: L 10-42 at Georgia State▼32G. St.Wk 6: W 10-3 at App State▲7App StateWk 7: L 15-23 vs Georgia Southern▼8G. South…Wk 8: L 0-26 at Louisiana Tech▼26L. Tech
  • Wk 4Lvs James Madison20-46
  • Wk 5Lat Georgia State10-42
  • Wk 6Wat App State10-3
  • Wk 7Lvs Georgia Southern15-23
  • Wk 8Lat Louisiana Tech0-26

Marshall

Wk 3: W 30-24 at Missouri State▲6Missouri…Wk 4: W 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb▲1Gardner-…Wk 5: L 17-45 at James Madison▼28James Ma…Wk 6: L 21-27 vs Coastal Carolina▼6Coastal…Wk 8: W 20-13 vs South Alabama▲7S. Alaba…
  • Wk 3Wat Missouri State30-24
  • Wk 4Wvs Gardner-Webb36-35
  • Wk 5Lat James Madison17-45
  • Wk 6Lvs Coastal Carolina21-27
  • Wk 8Wvs South Alabama20-13

Power rating by week

Marshall is rated 4.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

102-7Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Old DominionMarshall

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Marshall’s explosive plays against Old Dominion, 74 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Marshall’s explosive plays against Old Dominion’s defense

    74 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Marshall offense, 17th percentile · Old Dominion defense, 91st

  2. Marshall’s EPA/play against Old Dominion’s defense

    49 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Marshall offense, 35th percentile · Old Dominion defense, 84th

  3. Marshall’s passing EPA against Old Dominion’s defense

    46 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Marshall offense, 32nd percentile · Old Dominion defense, 78th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MarshallOld Dominion
EPA/play, offense
Marshall · 35Old Dominion · 0
EPA/play, defense
Marshall · 13Old Dominion · 84
Success rate, offense
Marshall · 57Old Dominion · 0
Success rate, defense
Marshall · 25Old Dominion · 79
Explosive-play rate, offense
Marshall · 17Old Dominion · 58
Explosive-play rate, defense
Marshall · 12Old Dominion · 91
Rush EPA, offense
Marshall · 37Old Dominion · 1
Rush EPA, defense
Marshall · 13Old Dominion · 81
Pass EPA, offense
Marshall · 32Old Dominion · 2
Pass EPA, defense
Marshall · 11Old Dominion · 78

The series

Marshall leads the series 10-1

11 meetings since 2014 · Marshall has won the last 8

Old Dominion wonMarshall won2014: Marshall by 422015: Marshall by 202016: Old Dominion by 242017: Marshall by 322018: Marshall by 222019: Marshall by 142021: Marshall by 72022: Marshall by 122023: Marshall by 62024: Marshall by 72025: Marshall by 2420142025
  • 2025Marshall 48-24Old Dominion lost 24-48 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 88%.
  • 2024Marshall 42-35Old Dominion lost 35-42 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 52%, low under 1%, high 71%.
  • 2023Marshall 41-35Old Dominion lost 35-41 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 19%, low 2%, high 80%.
  • 2022Marshall 12-0Old Dominion lost 0-12 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 37%, low 3%, high 46%.
  • 2021Marshall 20-13

Each line is Old Dominion’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Marshall fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (77th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 32%
  • Line · 40%
  • Old Dominion fans · 1st
  • Marshall fans · 77th

Marshall favored by 3 · Total 45.5

How games like this usually go

Marshall by 3, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 304 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Marshall.

opened +2.5now +3

The total fell 1 point.

opened 46.5now 45.5

Spread: +2.5 → +3 · Total: 46.5 → 45.5

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Old Dominion is worth +2.7 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 23rd percentile.

41% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (17-24 home, 13-33 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.8 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 351 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings