East Carolina beats Old Dominion 20-17
Team pages: East Carolina · Old Dominion
East Carolina beat Old Dominion 20-17. Share this game
We had Old Dominion favored. East Carolina won.
How it swung
The turning point: Iles 23-yd fumble return TD, Old Dominion goes ahead 10-7 (Q2, 8:12). East Carolina went from 58% to 34% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave East Carolina a 34% chance, and the closing betting line (East Carolina was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.
East Carolina came back from 10 down, at one point just a 12% chance in the third quarter.
Old Dominion led by 10, was as high as 88% in the third quarter, and still lost.
Old Dominion · Q2 8:12Pick-six
East Carolina · Q3 12:36East Carolina 20-17 Old DominionEast Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Old Dominion 17-20 East CarolinaOld Dominion lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 8:12FumbleIles 23-yd fumble return TD, Old Dominion goes ahead 10-7East Carolina 58% → 34% (−24)
- 2Q3 12:36InterceptionHenicle intercepted by Duncanson at the ECU33 and returned for a TD, ties it 17-17East Carolina 15% → 37% (+22)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 8:12FumbleIles 23-yd fumble return TD, Old Dominion goes ahead 10-7Old Dominion 42% → 66% (+24)
- 2Q3 12:36InterceptionHenicle intercepted by Duncanson at the ECU33 and returned for a TD, ties it 17-17Old Dominion 85% → 63% (−22)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Old Dominion -2.5), at 35% for East Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
East Carolina scored on 3 of its 13 drives; Old Dominion on 2 of its 13.
East Carolina’s drives are teal, Old Dominion’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Old Dominion’s side
Old Dominion’s best moment: Iles 23-yd fumble return TD, Old Dominion goes ahead 10-7 (Q2 8:12). It lifted Old Dominion’s win chance by 24 points.
“Such an unfortunate timeout from ECU”
When fans got loud
Roaring
Fans saved their loudest stretch for the fourth quarter.
The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.
Too close to call on 48% of plays. The winner fell to 12%.
What it cost
Old Dominion’s chance to win the conference fell from 2% to 0%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
East Carolina 20, Old Dominion 17
East Carolina covered +2.5 by 5.5. The total, 37, stayed under 48.5.
| Team totals | East Carolina | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 276 | 274 |
| Passing | 11 of 21, 103 yds | 8 of 20, 94 yds |
| Rushing | 47 for 173 yds | 44 for 180 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 14 |
| Third down | 3 of 13 | 5 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 9 for 85 yds | 9 for 95 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:37 | 29:23 |
East Carolina leaders
- Passing Mitch Griffis 4 of 12, 58 yds
- Rushing TJ Engleman 16 for 99 yds; Ashton Gray 10 for 36 yds
- Receiving Dillon Lorick 1 for 27 yds; Ismael Smith Flores 3 for 27 yds
Old Dominion leaders
- Passing Quinn Henicle 8 of 20, 94 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Devin Roche 18 for 102 yds; Quinn Henicle 16 for 73 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Zialis Blackmon 1 for 42 yds; Devin Roche 1 for 25 yds
No rain through the game
78° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at S.B. Ballard Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Norfolk Nas/chamber airport, 3.5 miles away, and Norfolk International Airport, 6.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
East Carolina · 0-2
Rated 77th in our preseason ratings, 81st now.
Two straight losses.
Last two games
Old Dominion · 1-1
Rated 65th in our preseason ratings, 68th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Old Dominion
- Wk 1Wvs Norfolk State31-10
- Wk 2Lat Virginia Tech21-44
East Carolina
- Wk 1Lat Alabama10-48
- Wk 2Lvs App State24-27
Power rating by week
Old Dominion is rated 1.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Old Dominion’s passing EPA against East Carolina, 94 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Old Dominion’s EPA/play against East Carolina’s defense
Old Dominion offense, 0th percentile · East Carolina defense, 88th
Old Dominion’s passing EPA against East Carolina’s defense
Old Dominion offense, 3rd percentile · East Carolina defense, 97th
East Carolina’s explosive plays against Old Dominion’s defense
East Carolina offense, 53rd percentile · Old Dominion defense, 82nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
East Carolina leads the series 5-0
5 meetings since 2013 · East Carolina has won the last 5
- 2024East Carolina 20-14
- 2022East Carolina 39-21
- 2019East Carolina 24-21
- 2018East Carolina 37-35
- 2013East Carolina 52-38
Each line is Old Dominion’s chance to win through that meeting. Old Dominion is 0-4 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
East Carolina fans are in a better mood than Old Dominion fans (100th vs 18th among FBS fanbases), even with Old Dominion favored.
Old Dominion favored by 2.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
Old Dominion by 2.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 49.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 78° at kickoff.
East Carolina at Old Dominion · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk
- 78°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 98weather score, Comfortable
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At S.B. Ballard Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 98 at 6 pm.
- noon: 83, Mixed
- 1 pm: 82, Mixed
- 2 pm: 81, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
- 4 pm: 86, Mixed
- 6 pm: 98, Comfortable (this game)
- 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:45 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Old Dominion is worth +2.6 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 25th percentile.
42% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (17-23 home, 13-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 90 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 107 miles to get here.