No. 13 Alabama routs East Carolina 48-10
Team pages: East Carolina · Alabama
No. 13 Alabama routed East Carolina 48-10. Share this game
We had Alabama favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Is that a let’s go pirates chant?
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama an 83% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama was a 28.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.
Alabama led by 10 after the first quarter and by 31 at the half.
Alabama · Q2 9:15Alabama 48-10 East Carolina
Alabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.05 in of rainEast Carolina 10-48 AlabamaEast Carolina lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.05 in of rainNo single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 14:41Fans react to loud ECU chants and a missed sack on Alabama's opening driveQuoted at the top of the page.
On the opening drive no less. We have really good fans for a G6 school, but being ass for 8 years made a lot of people (including some ECU people) forget that
r/CFB game thread - Q1 7:28Fans call the roughing passer penalty on ECU soft and biased
That’s a weak ass call
r/CFB game threadweak ass roughing call
r/CFB game thread - Q1 0:14Alabama fans criticize Ryan Williams for dropping passes without gloves
Never seen a drop off as bad as Williams
r/CFB game threadRare drop there by the youngster
r/CFB game thread - Q2 13:41Alabama fans celebrate Keelon Russell's 58-yard pass to Ryan Coleman-Williams
I really wish Keelon would stop taking hits like that
r/CFB game threadWhole lotta ugly but definitely seeing some positives compared to last year
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Alabama -28.5), at 97% for Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Alabama’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 4:12Crowell 3-yd TD runAlabama leads 10-0Q1, 4:12 · Alabama 10, East Carolina 010-0score after the play10-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 14:48Hill 4-yd TD runAlabama leads 17-0Q2, 14:48 · Alabama 17, East Carolina 017-0score after the play17-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 13:41Griffis 1-yd TD pass to Melvincuts it to 17-7Q2, 13:41 · Alabama 17, East Carolina 717-7score after the play17-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 10:02Hill 2-yd TD runAlabama leads 24-7Q2, 10:02 · Alabama 24, East Carolina 724-7score after the play24-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 9:15Pierre 27-yd return TDAlabama leads 31-7Q2, 9:15 · Alabama 31, East Carolina 731-7score after the play31-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:14Russell 3-yd TD runAlabama leads 38-7Q2, 0:14 · Alabama 38, East Carolina 738-7score after the play38-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 14:25Griffis sackedQ3, 14:25 · Alabama 38, East Carolina 738-7score after the play38-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Alabama scored on 7 of its 11 drives; East Carolina on 2 of its 12.
Alabama’s drives are teal, East Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“I get protecting the QB but thats soft”
When fans got loud
Loud
Fans had the most to say in the opening quarter.
The jump was loud; the crowd was busy.
What it cost
Alabama’s chance to make the playoff rose from 42% to 44%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Alabama 48, East Carolina 10
Alabama covered −28.5 by 9.5. The total, 58, went over 52.5.
| Team totals | East Carolina | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 162 | 487 |
| Passing | 11 of 19, 160 yds | 19 of 32, 260 yds |
| Rushing | 22 for 2 yds | 49 for 227 yds |
| First downs | 5 | 28 |
| Third down | 0 of 9 | 8 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 7 for 61 yds | 6 for 29 yds |
| Time of possession | 21:07 | 38:53 |
East Carolina leaders
- Passing Mitch Griffis 10 of 16, 137 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Ashton Gray 6 for 17 yds; Michael Allen 6 for 15 yds
- Receiving Tyler Johnson 1 for 68 yds; Jeremiah Melvin 4 for 60 yds, 1 TD
Alabama leaders
- Passing Keelon Russell 18 of 30, 256 yds
- Rushing Keelon Russell 13 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Daniel Hill 9 for 47 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Ryan Williams 5 for 130 yds; Derek Meadows 3 for 44 yds
Rain for part of the game
93° at kickoff · feels like 96° to 106° · 0.02 in of rain by radar over the stadium · wind 7 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 20
A feels-like 106° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 68 other games played at Bryant-Denny Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 81°, with about 7 in 10 games between 73° and 89°.
September game-day temperatures at Bryant-Denny Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Tuscaloosa Muni airport, 3.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
East Carolina · 9-4
Rated 77th in our preseason ratings.
W 23-17 vs PittsburghTop 25 #40 of 667
won by 6 as a 13.5-point underdog
W 42-3 @ Florida Atlantic #136 of 667
won by 39 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 24-58 @ UTSA #54 of 667
lost by 34 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 31-27 vs MemphisTop 25 #43 of 667
won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 48-22 vs Charlotte #227 of 667
won by 26 as a 29.5-point favorite
W 45-14 @ Temple #141 of 667
won by 31 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 41-27 vs Tulsa #156 of 667
won by 14 as a 16.5-point favorite
L 19-26 @ TulaneTop 25 #56 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 28-6 vs Army #116 of 667
won by 22 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 13-34 vs BYUTop 25 #41 of 667
lost by 21 as a 5.5-point underdog
W 38-0 @ Coastal Carolina #135 of 667
won by 38 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 56-3 vs Campbell #244 of 667
won by 53 as a 30.5-point favorite
L 17-24 @ NC State #45 of 667
lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Alabama · 11-4
Rated 21st in our preseason ratings.
L 3-38 @ IndianaTop 25 #4 of 667
lost by 35 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 34-24 @ OklahomaTop 25 #19 of 667
won by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 7-28 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667
lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 27-20 @ AuburnTop 25 #18 of 667
won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 56-0 vs Eastern Illinois #241 of 667
won by 56 as a 50.5-point favorite
L 21-23 vs OklahomaTop 25 #15 of 667
lost by 2 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 20-9 vs LSUTop 25 #22 of 667
won by 11 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 29-22 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #34 of 667
won by 7 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 37-20 vs TennesseeTop 25 #15 of 667
won by 17 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 27-24 @ MissouriTop 25 #14 of 667
won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 30-14 vs VanderbiltTop 25 #28 of 667
won by 16 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 24-21 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667
won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 38-14 vs Wisconsin #47 of 667
won by 24 as an 18.5-point favorite
W 73-0 vs UL Monroe #136 of 667
won by 73 as a 34.5-point favorite
L 17-31 @ Florida StateTop 25 #39 of 667
lost by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: East Carolina’s rushing EPA against Alabama, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
East Carolina’s EPA/play against Alabama’s defense
East Carolina offense, 10th percentile · Alabama defense, 86th
East Carolina’s rushing EPA against Alabama’s defense
East Carolina offense, 8th percentile · Alabama defense, 96th
Alabama’s explosive plays against East Carolina’s defense
Alabama offense, 70th percentile · East Carolina defense, 32nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Alabama leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 1998 · Alabama won the last meeting
- 1998Alabama 23-22
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
East Carolina fans are in a better mood than Alabama fans (100th vs 28th among FBS fanbases), even with Alabama favored.
- Model · 83%
- Line · 99%
- Alabama fans · 28th
- East Carolina fans · 100th
Alabama favored by 28.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Alabama by 28.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Alabama.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −25.5 → −28.5 · Total: 53.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 3.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot, with rain. Feels like 101° at kickoff.
East Carolina at Alabama · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
- 101°feels like at kickoff
- 0.05 inrain at kickoff
- 29weather score, Harsh
- Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Bryant-Denny Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 78, against 29 at 11 am.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- 11 am: 29, Harsh (this game)
- noon: 29, Harsh
- 2:30 pm: 40, Harsh
- 3:15 pm: 41, Harsh
- 4 pm: 42, Harsh
- 6 pm: 64, Rough
- 7 pm: 78, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Alabama is worth +6.1 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 84th percentile.
92% at home, 78% on the road against FBS opponents (47-4 home, 32-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.6 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 603 miles to get here.