App State at East Carolina
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
App State · 5-8
Picked #99 in the preseason · now #104.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 2-point win over Marshall as a 3.5-point underdog.
L 10–29 vs Georgia Southern #103 of 668
lost by 19 as a 10-point underdog
L 29–30 vs Arkansas State #141 of 668
lost by 1 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 26–24 vs Marshall #78 of 668
won by 2 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 10–58 @ James MadisonTop 25 #18 of 668
lost by 48 as a 19.5-point underdog
L 23–25 vs Georgia Southern #115 of 668
lost by 2 as a 5-point favorite
L 21–24 @ Old Dominion #61 of 668
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 37–45 vs Coastal Carolina #133 of 668
lost by 8 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 41–20 @ Georgia State #170 of 668
won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 27–23 vs Oregon State #106 of 668
won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 14–47 @ Boise StateTop 25 #37 of 668
lost by 33 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 22–38 @ Southern Miss #193 of 668
lost by 16 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 20–13 vs Lindenwood #191 of 668
won by 7 as a 29.5-point favorite
W 34–11 @ Charlotte #225 of 668
won by 23 as a 3-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
East Carolina · 9-4
Picked #77 in the preseason · now #58 — better than expected.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 6-point win over Pittsburgh as a 6-point underdog.
W 23–17 vs PittsburghTop 25 #41 of 668
won by 6 as a 6-point underdog
W 42–3 @ Florida Atlantic #150 of 668
won by 39 as a 7-point favorite
L 24–58 @ UTSA #38 of 668
lost by 34 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 31–27 vs MemphisTop 25 #54 of 668
won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 48–22 vs Charlotte #240 of 668
won by 26 as a 28-point favorite
W 45–14 @ Temple #111 of 668
won by 31 as a 5-point favorite
W 41–27 vs Tulsa #148 of 668
won by 14 as a 16.5-point favorite
L 19–26 @ TulaneTop 25 #64 of 668
lost by 7 as a 7-point underdog
W 28–6 vs Army #80 of 668
won by 22 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 13–34 vs BYUTop 25 #21 of 668
lost by 21 as a 5.5-point underdog
W 38–0 @ Coastal Carolina #136 of 668
won by 38 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 56–3 vs Campbell #228 of 668
won by 53 as a 30.5-point favorite
L 17–24 @ NC State #28 of 668
lost by 7 as a 14-point underdog
What’s at stake
App State
- App State sits at 0% to make the CFP field — 1% with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- Dowell Loggains is ahead of Shawn Clark’s year-2 pace (2-0 vs. 1-1) — a win tonight widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
East Carolina
- East Carolina is the American Athletic program whose Skip Holtz era + Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium purple haze + 2024 8-5 turnaround under Blake Harrell define what eastern-North-Carolina football identity looks like.
The series
East Carolina leads the series 8-6
14 meetings since 1972 · App State has won the last 4
- 2026App State 27–24
- 2024App State 21–19
- 2023App State 43–28
- 2021App State 33–19
- 2012East Carolina 35–13
Best players
App State
- Malachi Singleton (QB) · 558 passing yards
- Sam Pickett III (WR) · 162 receiving yards
- Ja'Torian Mack (S) · 13 tackles
East Carolina
- DJ Johnson Jr. (LB) · 13 tackles
- Jeremiah Melvin (WR) · 154 receiving yards
- Crews Law (LB) · 12 tackles
The line, and the room
East Carolina fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (99th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 59%
- Market · 70%
- East Carolina fans · 99th
- App State fans · 94th
Home −6.5 · O/U 55.5
Conditions
84°F · 1 mph wind · Cloudy
East Carolina is worth +3.8 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 43rd percentile.
41% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (17–24 home, 16–29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 245 miles to get here.
App State 27 – East Carolina 24
Missed — picked East Carolina, App State won.
Recent games
East Carolina
- Wk 1Lat Alabama10-48
App State
- Wk 1Wvs Maine55-3
Trajectory
App State upset the pregame pick, beating East Carolina 27-24.