The rest of the season
Three real tests left: UTSA 20%, Tulane 41%, Florida Atlantic 67%
Win out 5% · expect 2.1 of 4 more wins
Tulsa's chance to win each game left, from our model: Tulane 41%, Florida Atlantic 67%, Charlotte 86%, UTSA 20%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 71% to 73%, peaking at 98% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 10th in the American Athletic · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Baylor Hayes 1,343 · Rushing Damari Alston 425 · Receiving Oran Singleton Jr. 535 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
Follow Tulsa:athletics siteAmerican AthleticX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #107 | #262 | +13.5✓ +27.5 | Oklahoma State | W 24-10 143 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hayes 227 · Rush Alston 73 · Rec Singleton Jr. 99 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #113 | #160 | −12.5✗ −6.5 | @Sam Houston | W 23-17 139 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hayes 126 · Rush Jones 125 · Rec Alston 39 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #125 | #229 | −41.5✓ +0.5 | East Texas A&M | W 42-0 141 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Williams II 164 · Rush Davis 90 · Rec Singleton Jr. 38 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #104 | #134 | +7✗ −21 | @Arkansas | L 6-34 134 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Williams II 176 · Rush Alston 27 · Rec Gee Jr. 49 |
| 5 | Oct 1 | #109 | #98 | +3✓ +2 | North Texas | L 44-45 164 | 3-2 | 0-1 | Pass Hayes 211 · Rush Alston 79 · Rec Singleton Jr. 104 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #111 | #74 | +3✗ −5 | @Navy | L 26-34 138 | 3-3 | 0-2 | Pass Hayes 268 · Rush Ross 36 · Rec Ross 90 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #111 | #133 | −3.5✓ +17.5 | @Rice | W 38-17 125 | 4-3 | 1-2 | Pass Hayes 249 · Rush Jones 77 · Rec Singleton Jr. 87 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | #97 | #45 | +1.5✗ −1.5 | Army | L 35-38 124 | 4-4 | 1-3 | Pass Hayes 262 · Rush Jones 66 · Rec Calloway 88 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #90 | #85 | −1.5 | @Tulane | 12 pm ET · ESPNU41% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #91 | #128 | Florida Atlantic | time TBA67% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Charlotte | time TBA86% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @UTSA | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Tulsa, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Tulsa: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | Army | L 35-38 | 410 | 1 | 26:26 | +0.369 | 45.2% | 1.49 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Rice | W 38-17 | 401 | 0 | 30:28 | +0.304 | 47.6% | 1.34 | |
| Oct 10 | @Navy | L 26-34 | 376 | 0 | 25:29 | +0.168 | 29.9% | 1.65 | Most explosive |
| Oct 1 | North Texas | L 44-45 | 352 | 0 | 25:18 | +0.174 | 40.7% | 1.20 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Arkansas | L 6-34 | 241 | 2 | 22:29 | -0.063 | 36.4% | 0.64 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | East Texas A&M | W 42-0 | 450 | 1 | 29:42 | +0.319 | 51.4% | 1.20 | Best success rate |
| Sep 12 | @Sam Houston | W 23-17 | 367 | 0 | 30:18 | +0.009 | 32.4% | 1.52 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | Oklahoma State | W 24-10 | 361 | 1 | 28:55 | +0.186 | 41.4% | 1.09 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 370 | 0.6 | +0.183 | 40.6% | 1.27 | ||||
Tulsa's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
It is a true free market system right now, and why the federal government needs to be involved confounds me.
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Tulsa, the Oklahoma private university with Todd Graham's 2010 11-3 season, now sits at 4-8, highlighting a gap between its historic G5 identity and current struggles.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Tulsa · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 2%; 5 wins 20%; 6 wins 44%; 7 wins 29%; 8 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 3 of 945 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Tulsa is the tiny Oklahoma private school that out-scored everybody for a decade — and is trying, under a first-year coach, to remember how the offense used to feel like a track meet.
Tulsa fans are tired of being the program everyone forgets is in the FBS — the 4,000-student private school nobody schedules out of respect. They'll remind you it has more bowl history than schools…
Tulsa · Game-day weather
Typical at Chapman Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm Saturdays 83
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Tulsa is the Oklahoma private university whose Todd Graham 2010 11-3 + 2012 Liberty Bowl + Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium define what historic-Oklahoma-G5-football looks like outside Norman + Stillwater.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
81st percentile among FBS programs
More
4Tre Lamb inherits a 4-8 losing record at Tulsa, a program defined by its historic Oklahoma-G5 identity but now navigating a fanbase in transition.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Tulsa · 2026