Tulsa

2-0

American Athletic · Tre Lamb, year 2 (6-8) · Chapman Stadium · 30,000 · 28,520 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#111 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #75 (-2.3) · FPI #79
The marketno line yetvs East Texas A&M · our model 87% Tulsa · a number, not a pick

LastW 23–17 at Sam Houston · Sat Sep 12 · Thomas Davis 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 4 tackles

Nextvs East Texas A&M · Sat Sep 19 · 8 pm ET · Chapman Stadium · first meeting on record · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
23.5
Pts allowed/game
13.5
Total yards/gm#99 / 138 · 29th pct
364.0
Rush yards/gm#58 / 138 · 58th pct
187.5
Pass yards/gm#107 / 138 · 23rd pct
176.5
Yards allowed/gm#92 / 138 · 34th pct
369.5
Rush yds allowed/gmT-#43 / 138 · 69th pct
91.0
SacksT-#11 / 138 · 89th pct
7
InterceptionsT-#29 / 115 · 61st pct
2
3rd-down conv#135 / 138 · 3rd pct
17.9%
All 95 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
728364.0/gm5.60/play#99 / 138 · 29th pct#59 / 70 · 16th pct#9 / 14 · 39th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
739369.5/gm4.86/play#92 / 138 · 34th pct#57 / 70 · 19th pct#8 / 14 · 46th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
375187.5/gm2.88/play#58 / 138 · 58th pct#32 / 70 · 55th pct#8 / 14 · 46th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
18291.0/gm1.20/playT-#43 / 138 · 69th pctT-#34 / 70 · 51st pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
7336.5/gmT-#76 / 138 · 45th pct#41 / 70 · 42nd pct#9 / 14 · 39th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6834.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#42 / 70 · 39th pct#5 / 14 · 68th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
52.5/gmT-#35 / 138 · 70th pctT-#23 / 70 · 60th pct#4 / 14 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 70 · 87th pctT-#1 / 14 · 93rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
353176.5/gm2.72/play#107 / 138 · 23rd pct#62 / 70 · 12th pct#8 / 14 · 46th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
557278.5/gm3.66/play#119 / 138 · 14th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5728.5/gmT-#74 / 138 · 46th pctT-#43 / 70 · 38th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
8442.0/gmT-#125 / 138 · 9th pctT-#64 / 70 · 7th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3316.5/gmT-#92 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#55 / 70 · 21st pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5326.5/gmT-#127 / 138 · 8th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
10.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 11th pctT-#60 / 70 · 9th pctT-#11 / 14 · 18th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#75 / 138 · 36th pctT-#47 / 70 · 23rd pctT-#6 / 14 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
108.7108.7#108 / 115 · 7th pct#59 / 60 · 2nd pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
128.2128.2#51 / 91 · 45th pct#30 / 42 · 30th pct#6 / 13 · 62nd pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 70 · 53rd pctT-#6 / 14 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#77 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#40 / 70 · 29th pctT-#9 / 14 · 29th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
73.5/gmT-#11 / 138 · 89th pctT-#7 / 70 · 88th pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#74 / 138 · 37th pctT-#42 / 70 · 31st pctT-#8 / 14 · 32nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
105.0/gmT-#79 / 138 · 38th pctT-#45 / 70 · 31st pctT-#7 / 14 · 50th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#81 / 138 · 34th pctT-#47 / 70 · 27th pctT-#7 / 14 · 39th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3316.5/gmT-#115 / 138 · 16th pct#64 / 70 · 9th pctT-#11 / 14 · 21st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4623.0/gmT-#114 / 138 · 16th pctT-#65 / 70 · 6th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
52.5/gmT-#131 / 138 · 4th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
105.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 48th pctT-#42 / 70 · 35th pctT-#6 / 14 · 57th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2814.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 64th pctT-#19 / 70 · 70th pctT-#5 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2914.5/gmT-#79 / 138 · 40th pctT-#41 / 70 · 39th pctT-#10 / 14 · 29th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
52.5/gmT-#4 / 138 · 95th pctT-#3 / 70 · 94th pctT-#1 / 14 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#8 / 14 · 39th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
73.5/gmT-#10 / 138 · 91st pctT-#5 / 70 · 91st pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
84.0/gmT-#131 / 138 · 3rd pctT-#68 / 70 · 2nd pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
59:1329:36/gm#91 / 138 · 34th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
60:4730:24/gm#83 / 138 · 40th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#9 / 14 · 39th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
-0.03 EPA/play10233 / 5362.33536.711120.75017.85.65.4
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
-0.05 EPA/play62281184.22
#43 FBS
29
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.14 EPA/play22712517.9156
-0.16 EPA/play7278512.1047
+0.31 EPA/play928637.9018

2026 stat leaders · Tulsa

through 2 games

Dax Collins leads Tulsa with 19 tackles through 2 games.

1. Dax Collins LB 19 tackles
2. Chris Thompson Jr. LB 18 tackles
3. Zane Woodham DB 13 tackles
4. Trequan Jones RB 160 rushing yards
5. Oran Singleton Jr. WR 125 receiving yards
How They Play · 2025

Tulsa fields a limited offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
31st pct EPA/play
Defense
53rd pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
67th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Tulsa · 2025

Tulsa reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 22%) and explosive plays allowed (top 33%); the crux lives in passing epa, where Tulsa sits at the 20th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.12
31st
Success Rate +0.40
33rd
Explosive Plays +1.26
51st
Rushing EPA +0.05
29th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.15
53rd
Success Rate Allowed +0.42
39th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.22
67th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.27
42nd

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.18
20th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.02
78th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Tulsa · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Tulsa is worth +1.4 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile of 133 programs

41% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (17–24 home, 16–32 away). Interval ±3.9.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Tulsa has beaten the number by −0.2 more at home than away over 74 games — inside the ±7.2 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Chapman Stadium seats 30,000 and has averaged 64% full (19,099, 24 games reported). Visitors cover a median 545 miles to get here since 2018 — 36th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 30% of the 2026 roster (30 of 101 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 46 home games since 2018.

Home17–24Away16–32Edge+1.4 ±3.9Visitor trip545 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Tulsa hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

56th percentile success on standard downs, 1st on passing downs — a 55-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantTulsaWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

Tulsa by half

1st-half offense ranks 6th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 62nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 6th pctile2nd half · 62nd pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Tulsa’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Josh Reardon / co-Mike Gray (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 42% → 2026: 44% · 3-pt range · #194 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 38% → 2026: 50% · 12-pt range · #122 of 200 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2025: 55% → 2026: 50% · 5-pt range · #183 of 189 · less than most
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Tulsa’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (65.6% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 77-play sample) — mid-pack, 11 of 18 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=77 short-zone plays, raw rate 66.2%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Tulsa

CFB Zeitgeist

#111

-4.3

SP+

#75

-2.3

FPI

#79

-3.4

Elo

#120

1271

The national models put Tulsa between 75th and 120th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 111th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Tulsa

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

Tulsa’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.

Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.

Virginia 1969–1974
kept sliding
Houston 1998–2003
clawed back
Kansas State 1973–1978
stayed down
Arizona State 1940–1948
clawed back

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

72°F average kickoff temp; 3% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 71 home games with weather data.

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