Next game: at Tulane
Tulsa’s best edge on Tulane is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Tulsa offense against Tulane defense
Tulane offense against Tulsa defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.16 EPA/play | 10 | 6 | 121 / 192 | 63.0 | 1343 | 7.0 | 10 #72 FBS | 2 | 136.9 | 30 | 55.5 | 7.0 | 4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 192 pass attempts and 35 carries in 6 games. About as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Hayes operates within the system without forcing anything. Veltkamp is the one who picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.0 bottom 25th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.0% 85th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Baylor Hayes's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.12 EPA/play | 5 | 5 | 34 / 59 | 57.6 | 340 | 5.8 | 3 | 0 | 122.8 | 28 | 20.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.00 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 102 | 425 | 4.2 | 6 #55 FBS | 29 | 8.9 | 8.9 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 102 carries and 15 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Damari Alston's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.00 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 60 | 388 | 6.5 | 4 | 81 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Speed merchant· Return threatCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. a house-call threat every time he fields it 60 carries and 3 catches in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Jones hits the crease and outruns the angle. Farrow is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry6.4 84th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share4.8% bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Trequan Jones's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.29 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 43 | 535 #63 FBS | 12.4 | 4 #70 FBS | 56 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Impact starter — 43 catches, 6 carries and 3 pass attempts in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Jr. wins underneath on volume and route precision. Messer is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Reception volume43 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Oran Singleton Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.63 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 28 | 327 | 11.7 | 3 | 39 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 28 catches and 3 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Ross moves the chains on third down. Messer is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception11.7 bottom 31th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.6 68th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javon Ross's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.10 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 23 | 215 | 9.3 | 1 | 47 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 23 catches and 6 carries in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jimmy Calloway's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.56 EPA/play | 1 | 6 | 15 | 194 | 12.9 | 3 | 53 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Jr. moves the chains on third down. Messer is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception11.5 bottom 29th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View David Wells Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| +0.30 EPA/play | — | 4 | 9 | 111 | 12.3 | 1 | 24 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.52 EPA/play | 82 | 3 | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 | 23 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 10 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — 33 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Arias Nash's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 15 | 8 | 31 | 13 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 4 | 9 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — 31 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.2% 79th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Thomas Davis's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 8 | 28 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 28 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate1.8% bottom 12th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaylen George's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | — | 8 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 #17 FBS | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 25 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.0% 79th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kyran Duhon's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 6 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 19 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tai Newhouse's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 58 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyler Rich's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 32 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Hudson Ball's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 88 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dailen Howard's full player page | |||||||
| 90 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 41 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 8 | 81 | 27 | 54 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 81 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume81 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.3% bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chris Thompson Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 9 | 8 | 61 | 24 | 37 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 61 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume61 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate4.9% 72th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dax Collins's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 25 | 8 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Sam Stone's full player page | |||||||||
| 50 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 8 | 47 | 5 | 2 #51 FBS | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 47 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.6% 64th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tyson Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 19 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 43 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume43 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Rylan Leathers's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 8 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 38 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Ashton Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 2 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 31 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume31 bottom 50th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Devin Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 27 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 31 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Zane Woodham's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Zach Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 16 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caldra Williford's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.0% bottom 37th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jordan Drew's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | 5/7 | 71.4 | 24/26 | 39 | 45 | |
| 18 | 1 | 1/3 | 33.3 | 1/1 | 4 | 40 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 29 | 8 | 36 | 1546 | 42.9 | 55 | 11 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.00 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 16 | 378 | 23.6 | 1 | 98 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.29 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
Biggest plays from Tulsa’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Tulsa’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q3, 4:15 · Tulsa down 7, ties itTrequan Jones runs 59 yards for a touchdownArmy at Tulsa, week 8Q3, 4:15 · Tulsa 28, Army 285959-yard touchdown run5959-yard touchdown run59-yard touchdown runT.Jones rush middle for 59 yards gain to the Army00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 13:25 · Tulsa breaks the tieBaylor Hayes finds Jimmy Calloway for a 13-yard touchdownArmy at Tulsa, week 8Q4, 13:25 · Tulsa 35, Army 28▲23%Tulsa’s chance to win, 62% to 85%▲23%Tulsa’s chance to win, 62% to 85%B.Hayes pass complete short right to J.Calloway caught at Army00, for 13 yards to the Army00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 7:00 · Tulsa up 7Baylor Hayes finds Oran Singleton Jr. for a 21-yard touchdownOklahoma State at Tulsa, week 1Q3, 7:00 · Tulsa 17, Oklahoma State 3▲20%Tulsa’s chance to win, 65% to 85%▲20%Tulsa’s chance to win, 65% to 85%B.Hayes pass complete short right to O.Singleton caught at OSU25, for 21 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 6:45 · North Texas breaks the tieTayven Jackson finds Justin Stevenson for a 13-yard touchdownNorth Texas at Tulsa, week 5Q4, 6:45 · North Texas 38, Tulsa 31Go-ahead touchdown for North Texas in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for North Texas in the fourth quarterT.Jackson pass complete short middle to J.Stevenson caught at TLS00, for 13 yards to the TLS00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 1:57 · Army down 4, takes the leadCale Hellums runs 1 yard for a touchdownArmy at Tulsa, week 8Q2, 1:57 · Army 17, Tulsa 14Army took the lead in the second quarterArmy took the lead in the second quarterC.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa00 touchdown. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q1, 9:11 · Army tiedCale Hellums runs 41 yards for a touchdownArmy at Tulsa, week 8Q1, 9:11 · Army 7, Tulsa 0Army opened the scoringArmy opened the scoringC.Hellums rush left for 41 yards gain to the Tulsa00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Tulsa lost to Army after being 94% to win; the closest win was at Rice, down to 16%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Tulsa during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Tulsa
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · TulsaChris Thompson Jr. leads Tulsa with 81 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+20 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Tulsa fields a strong offense behind a solid defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Tulsa reads strongest in red-zone defense (top 14%) and rushing EPA (top 16%); the crux lives in success rate, where Tulsa sits at the 33rd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Tulsa is worth +1.4 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile of 133 programs
40% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (17-26 home, 17-34 away). Interval ±3.7.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Tulsa has beaten the number by −4.0 more at home than away over 100 games. That is inside the ±6.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Chapman Stadium seats 30,000 and has averaged 63% full (18,883, 27 games reported). Visitors cover a median 545 miles to get here since 2018 — 39th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 29% of the 2026 roster (30 of 102 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 49 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- CloserDominic Richardson gets less work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict: not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Damari Alston and Trequan Jones split the carries (100/130 vs 30/130) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Trequan Jones produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Oran Singleton Jr. (WR) and Chris Gacayan II (TE) split the targets (56/66 vs 10/66) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Chris Gacayan II produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Tulsa actually scores
68th percentile quality, 28th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Tulsa’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 53rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 61st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Tulsa hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
49th percentile success on standard downs, 7th on passing downs — a 42-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Tulsa by half
1st-half offense ranks 45th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 87th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Tulsa’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.18; 67th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.19 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Tulsa’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Tulsa’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.2% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 216-play sample) — mid-pack, 50 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Tulsa’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.4% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 158-play sample) — mid-pack, 92 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
89% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
8 of 9 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
26% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~18% league average.
7 interceptions of 27 disrupted passes (20 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
40 penalties committed, 46 drawn on opponents — netting a 39-yard field-position edge.
363 penalty yards committed vs. 402 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Tulsa
Most similar programs · TulsaReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Tulsa’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 56°, between 45° and 66° in about 7 in 10 games (28 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 67°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 81° (54 of 59 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.