American Athletic Navy

Head coach Brian Newberry · 4th season · 28-18 at Navy

Record2-61-4 American Athletic · 13th
Bowl4 wins to goto bowl eligibility
Nextvs TempleSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network

The rest of the season

Three real tests left: Temple 27%, Memphis 36%, Army 40%

Win out 3% · expect 1.9 of 4 more wins

Navy's chance to win each game left, from our model: Temple 27%, Memphis 36%, Charlotte 82%, Army 40%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 7% to <1%, peaking at 7% before a game

7%4%L3%L1%L3%W2%L<1%L<1%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

Standing13th in the American Athletic · 1-4 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Jackson Gutierrez 717 · Rushing Jackson Gutierrez 982 · Receiving Jordan Collins 212 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#74 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #80 (-1.6) · FPI #91
The marketNavy by 7.5Betting line vs Temple · our model 27% Navy

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Navy:athletics siteAmerican AthleticX@navyathleticsYouTubeInstagram

Schedule and results

Navy · 2026 schedule and results2-6Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 62% · 1 opponent played so far is in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #72 to #76
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#72#188−31.5✗ −4.5TowsonW 42-15 79Navy won 42-15 vs Towson. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Woodson 21 · Rush Woodson 200 · Rec Barrow 11
2Sep 12#71#106−4.5✗ −12.5@Florida AtlanticL 30-38 136Navy lost 30-38 at Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 54%, low under 1%, high 66%.1-10-1Pass Gutierrez 100 · Rush Woodson 96 · Rec Collins 68
3Bye week
4Sep 25#80#63−6.5✗ −10.5@UABL 20-24 125Navy lost 20-24 at UAB. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 81%. Firestorm1-20-2Pass Gutierrez 104 · Rush Gutierrez 134 · Rec Listorti 39
5Oct 3#79#88+2.5✗ −2.5@Air ForceL 9-14 119Navy lost 9-14 at Air Force. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 46%.1-30-2Pass Gutierrez 140 · Rush Barrow 44 · Rec Brasfield 68
6Oct 10#74#111−3✓ +5TulsaW 34-26 138Navy won 34-26 vs Tulsa. Chance to win started at 68%, low 18%, high better than 99%.2-31-2Pass Gutierrez 95 · Rush Gutierrez 232 · Rec Brasfield 58
7Oct 17#73#26+5.5✓ +1.5@UTSAL 34-38 126Navy lost 34-38 at UTSA. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 74%.2-41-3Pass Gutierrez 120 · Rush Gutierrez 139 · Rec Collins 117
8Oct 24#67#66+3✗ −7North TexasL 39-49 129Navy lost 39-49 vs North Texas. Chance to win started at 45%, low 3%, high 58%.2-51-4Pass Gutierrez 133 · Rush Gutierrez 228 · Rec Barlow 64
9Oct 31#76#2+30.5✓ +8.5Notre Dame (N)L 13-35 116Navy lost 13-35 vs Notre Dame. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 26%.2-61-4Pass Gutierrez 25 · Rush Gutierrez 110 · Rec Hutchison 17
10Nov 7#76#121−7.5Temple3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network27% to win
11Bye week
12Nov 21Memphis12 pm ET36% to win
13Nov 28@Charlottetime TBA82% to win
14Bye week
15Dec 12−2.5Army (N)3 pm ET · CBS
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Navy, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Navy: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31Notre DameL 13-35245032:40+0.23648.3%1.04
Oct 24North TexasL 39-49506137:31+0.03645.6%1.29Defense's roughest night
Oct 17@UTSAL 34-38477028:15+0.41347.5%1.46One-score loss
Oct 10TulsaW 34-26481434:31+0.30952.1%1.11One-score win
Oct 3@Air ForceL 9-14253123:59-0.01328.6%1.22Season-low EPA/play
Sep 25@UABL 20-24353234:22+0.00347.9%1.01One-score loss
Sep 12@Florida AtlanticL 30-38393226:10+0.09738.6%1.62Most explosive
Sep 5TowsonW 42-15527039:50+0.48063.3%1.02Season-high EPA/play
Season average (8 games)4041.2+0.19546.5%1.22

Navy's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Offense strongRun-heavy, ground-controlDefense poor

Season expectations

AAC title#1 in market+325

Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 13-35 vs Notre Dame

Navy fans
r/CFB
“It was nice having that hope for an upset before Notre Dame took control, hopefully the offense can keep it going vs Temple next week”
4d ago
r/CFB
“We made the Irish play our brand of football in the first half. They made us play their brand in the second half.”
4d ago

L 39-49 vs North Texas

Navy fans
r/CFB
“At least our offense looks much better compared to earlier in the season”
1w ago
r/CFB
“Yep, even when we were up, I knew navy was still in this somehow, even though they don’t usually win from behind.”
1w ago
North Texas fans on Navy
r/CFB
“Now don’t let Navy score again. I’ve been out this whole second half so far but scorewatching always a roller coaster”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Dec 12Army-Navy Gamevs Army · neutral site

Recent form · last 10 games

Navy has won one of its last five.

4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last three.

Streak L3Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
Yeah, I think the history of it, the why, you know, it goes way back with the war and the agreement between presidents
Freeman · On3the day of Navy's 2026 game against Notre Dame

Range of outcomes · Navy · 2026

Navy’s most likely regular season is 4-8. 92% of outcomes land from 3-9 to 5-7.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

2 wins 5%; 3 wins 31%; 4 wins 41%; 5 wins 20%; 6 wins 3%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor3-9No postseason.
Base3-9No postseason.
Ceiling7-6A bowl game.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 58 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-6

Game feel58even gamescombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 14 in the American Athletic
Heart rate1-4white-knucklein one-score games (5 of 8)1st most one-score games of 14 in the American Athletic
Margin-2.2competitiveavg scoring margin9th best margin of 14 in the American Athletic
Tempo65average paceoffensive plays / game8th fastest of 14 in the American Athletic
Big plays1.22some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)10th most explosive of 14 in the American Athletic
Home crowd32,261avg attendance4th biggest crowds of 14 in the American Athletic

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Navy is the program where every man on the field has signed up to serve — and where a 17-16 December comeback over Army means more than any ranking the rest of the sport plays for.

Title DroughtSince 2015 · 11 yrs

Fans hear the option offense called a relic every December — and then watch the Midshipmen, with players half the size of their opponents, go 11-2 and beat a ranked Army team, and wait for the…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weather60° at kickoff, 5% chance of rain, 17 mph gusts

Navy · Game-day weather

This Saturday: Mild. No coat needed.

Temple at Navy · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.

  • 60°feels like
  • 5%average rain chance
  • 17 mphwind gusts
  • 99weather score, Comfortable

Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.

Typical at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 91 to 94

  • noon: 93, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, 112 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Navy is the Annapolis service academy whose triple-option offense + Army-Navy game + 2024 9-3 + Brian Newberry era keep the Midshipmen permanently in the December CFB calendar.

Offense: StrongRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Poor
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Read the Navy story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025 · Wk 15Entered the AP Top 25Week 14 · Won 28-17 at Memphisat No. 23

Roster and recruiting

Roster14% of production back, talent #138

Roster reload: Navy

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production14%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#138 nationally247 composite 195.7
Portal Additions0No clear position repair point
Portal Losses3Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2), 2 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#137Depth class
CBin 0out 1 - Justin Ross3.60Downgrade
OTin 0out 1 - Jaylin Acevedo3.50Downgrade
QBin 0out 1 - Brady McDonough2.00Downgrade
current room: 200 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
TE · departedEli HeidenreichRd 7, Pk 14
NowMerrick Barlow3★ · FR
Next man up
WR · departedEli HeidenreichRd 7, Pk 14
NowChris ViverosFR
Next man up
Full roster (197 players)
CCam Nichols, Gavin Dauby, Hunter Fay
CBBryce Allen, Caiden Anku, Eli Thompson, Garrison Edwards, Ira Oniha, Jaxson Jewell, Nick Bell, Phillip Hamilton, Sean Martin, Xavier Le Jeune
DEAiden Lyczek, Avery Hughes, Bryan Hall, Christian Smith, Elysha Campbell, Ikenna Ozurumba, Jaden Brock, Rhoen Breen, Romane Grant
DLDelan Massey-Wright, Todd Hammond
DTAlex McCalop, Bryce Rothwell, Clancy Orie, Clinton Anyagafu, Gabriel George, Griffen Willis, Matt Reyes
GBen Reiland, Hoke Smith II, Isaac Bunker, Jace Williams, Jack Heath, Jackson DeLoach, John Hebert, Matt McMahon, Paul McClune IV, Peter Vomvolakis, Will Hampton, Wyatt Ferguson, Zarian Simms
LBAllen Anderson, Amahd Clark, Anthony Giorgi, Bishop Rellah, Brady O'Connor, Brandon Ihle, Christian Johnson, Cody Fair, Coleman Cauley, Daveon Jones, Dom Purcell, E.J. Walker, Gavin Widener, Gavin Woods, Harry Beacham III, Ian Hall, JaSean McLean, Jacob Asbeck, Jaden Holder, Jaden Mangini, James Deyo, Job Grant, Julian Terry, Justin Coles, Kaleb Nelson, Kyle Ramos, Luke Lawson, Luke Mitchell, Mac Barrow II, Mackenzie Ardoin, Maddox Hayles, MarcAnthony Parker, Marcus Bleazard, Mason Frey, Matt Karpinsky, Nash Beenen, Nick Rose, Noah Beck, Nolan McCamy, Ronin Simms, Seth English, Teddy Androus, Terrez Boothe, Trent Gillis, Will Miller, Xavier Sanchez
LSEli Cronic, Jaxon Endres, Jonah Krueger, Landon Purcell, Rayne Fry, Thomas McDonald
OLChris Herock, Connor Young, Jake Polito, Terrence McCauley, Toran Smith, Xavyer Arrington
OTAlex Brewer, Connor Heater, Drew Fontana, Garison Millsaps, Hansen Collie, James Cardinali, Joe Alnwick, Karson Young, Logan Wegman, Mack Taylor, Malcolm Johnson, Matt Tomaszewski, Peter Bonnet, Sean Crowley
PJack Armbruster, Jacob Carlson, Roman Hyland
PKArchie Esh, Cooper Welch, Justin Welch, Lance Gossett, Nolan Bartley
QBBrady Carmical, Braxton Woodson, Evan Blouir, Jackson Gutierrez, Jason Williams Jr., Jett Taylor, Landon Walker, Maverick Chance, Michael Dove, Ryan Brass
RBAydin Woolfolk, Chris Daley II, Christian Cromer, Jacob Williams, Jadyn Jones, Jai Hundley, Jeremiah Wingfield, Julian Turney, Quinton Ezzard, Stefan Egbe, Tyler Wall, Vic Listorti
SAaron Rose, Cam Robinson, Carson de Avila, Collin Seals, Conner Lessane, Giuseppe Sessi, Gunnar Reger, Jonah Cali, Joshua Switzer, Kush'i Abraham, Matthew Seliga, Maxwell Williams, Tre Winters, Trent Gray, Zyon McKenzie
TEDrew Hall, Gavin Noe, Jake Norris, Jordan Collins, Merrick Barlow, Nick Spears, Theo Elwell
WRAkeem Clark, Andersen Cardoza, Andre Gilbert Jr., Armoni Spurlock, Arnel Heathington, Bash Bodily, Braeden George, Braeden Stuart, Casey Smith, Cayden Alula, Charles Robinson, Gage Leonard, Gus Anderson, Ihsaan Alozie, Isaiah Bryant, JP Donovan, James Cusick II, Jeremiah Chalmers, Joshua Guerin, Landon Dolhancyk, Luke Hutchison, Maddax Fayard, Michael Barrow, Noah Bull, Prosper Akanna, Santino Sanchez, Tre Jones III, Truman Brasfield, Tyler Breedlove
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats Army 17-16
2,561 upvotes · Dec 2025
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats Memphis 28-17
1,095 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats USF 41-38
849 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 36% of FBS programs
→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

36th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
36th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
7.5
Sportsbook win total
(57th among FBS)
Market 21pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
RivalsRival pulse: Air Force hopeful

Rival pulse

Army
Mixed
+4
Army-Navy Game
Face-off →
Air Force
Hopeful
+12
Commander-in-Chief (AF-Navy)

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Navy

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site