deep threatthis cycle✓ factnew
Eli Heidenreich is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
our readdeveloping
Navy
1-1Latest
American Athletic · Brian Newberry, year 4 (27-13) · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 34,000 · 32,654 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#74 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #55 (+3.6) · FPI #89
The marketno line yetat UAB · our model 37% Navy · a number, not a pick
LastL 30–38 at Florida Atlantic · Sat Sep 12 · Jackson Gutierrez 100 pass yds, 2 TD, 75 rush yds
Nextat UAB · Fri Sep 25 · 7 pm ET · Protective Stadium · series 3-0, won the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Navy · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #72 | #188 | -30.5✗ | Towson | W 42–15 79 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #71 | #106 | -4.5✗ | @Florida Atlantic | L 30–38 136 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 25 | #75 | #58 | @UAB | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Air Force | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Tulsa | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @UTSA | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | North Texas | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Notre Dame (N) | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Temple | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Memphis | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Charlotte | ||||||
| 15 | Dec 12 | Army (N) |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Florida Atlantic | L 30–38 | 393 | 2 | 26:10 | +0.281 | 38.6% | 178.6% | |
| Sep 5 | Towson | W 42–15 | 527 | 0 | 39:50 | +0.480 | 63.3% | 102.2% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 460 | 1.0 | +0.381 | 50.9% | 140.4% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Navy is the program where every man on the field has signed up to serve — and where a 17-16 December comeback over Army means more than any ranking the rest of the sport plays for.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 11 yrs
Fans hear the option offense called a relic every December — and then watch the Midshipmen, with players half the size of their opponents, go 11-2 and beat a ranked Army team, and wait for the analyst…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Navy fans
r/CFB
▲ 1284 · 1w ago
Towson fans on Navy
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 11-2 · last season
Game feel56even gamescombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 14 in the American Athletic
Heart rate5-0some dramain one-score games (5 of 13)5th most one-score games of 14 in the American Athletic
Margin+6.5competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 14 in the American Athletic
Tempo63methodicaloffensive plays / game12th fastest of 13 in the American Athletic
Big plays1.27some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)8th most explosive of 14 in the American Athletic
Home crowd31,960avg attendance3rd biggest crowds of 14 in the American Athletic
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Navy has won four of its last five.
Warming. 7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Next Sep 25
vs UAB · away
EliteRun-heavy, ground-controlPoor
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#50 in field+60000
AAC title#1 in market+325
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Navy · the story right now
5 storylines developing
What Navy's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
short yardage2025 cycle~attributednew
Alex Tecza: a short yardage signal screened this season.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Brandon Chatman is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Navy enters 2025 at No. 46 in SP+ — top-quintile returning production and an 11-2 record under Brian Newberry raise expectations for sustained December relevance.
what happenedNavy enters 2025 rated No. 46 in SP+ (+6.2), up 11 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
market_swing2026-09-10~readnew
Brian Newberry's 4th season opens with a 11-2 record and a 1.0 win total jump, but Navy's #138 talent rank and uneasy fan belief signal tension ahead.
what happenedNavy win total rose from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1 wins) between Sep 9 and Sep 10, 2026 (tier C). ✓ fact
the contextwin total up 1.0 from 7.5 to 8.5
our readdeveloping
How past storylines here turned out
Died downNavy's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Navy · 2026
Outcome band · Navy · 2026Navy's most likely season is 4-8 — no postseason. The floor is 2-10; the ceiling is 7-6.
Floor 2-10Ceiling 7-6Base 4-8
0 wins13 wins
Floor2-10No postseason, 2 fewer wins.
Base4-8No postseason.
Ceiling7-6A bowl game.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Navy · Season outlook Confidence
Navy enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Navy enters 2025 rated No. 46 in SP+ (+6.2), up 11 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The coverage is thin. Quiet preseasons end two ways.
Developing2 new this week
yesterdayAAC title odds: +412 → +825 (▼8.7pp implied)
5 days agoWin total: 7.5 → 8.5 (▲1)
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Navy enters 2025 at No. 46 in SP+ — top-quintile returning production and an 11-2 record under Brian Newberry raise expectations for sustained December relevance.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Navy enters 2025 rated No. 46 in SP+ (+6.2), up 11 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Caden Veltkamp throws 5 TDs as Florida Atlantic holds off Navy 38-30”
CBS Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Navy’s Furious Comeback Falls Short in 38-30 Loss at Florida Atlantic”
Naval Academy Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Navy football loses QB Braxton Woodson in 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic”
Capital Gazette · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards9% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (63%).›
This event was in 38 of 402 board posts (9%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Being both a Texas and Navy fan, watching both of them rally back at the same time was such an insane emotional flip its really hard to describe. Disappointed for Navy but its hard"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"All good. Also nobody is allowed to pick on the navy besides the marines. It’s weird. I’ve seen my unit hate the navy for something and then the army chimes in and immediately all"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (62 posts): 24% positive · 45% neutral · 31% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rival pulse
Air Force
Uneasy-7
Commander-in-Chief (AF-Navy)
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Navy is the Annapolis service academy whose triple-option offense + Army-Navy game + 2024 9-3 + Brian Newberry era keep the Midshipmen permanently in the December CFB calendar.
Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Poor
Open questions
The story
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 15Entered the AP Top 25Week 14 · Won 28-17 at Memphis
Roster
Roster Reload - Navy
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production14%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#138 nationally247 composite 195.7
Portal Additions0No clear position repair point
Portal Losses3Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2) — 2 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#137Depth class
QBin 0out 1 - Brady McDonoughDowngrade
current room: 200 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
Full roster (197 players)
CBBryce Allen, Caiden Anku, Eli Thompson, Garrison Edwards, Ira Oniha, Jaxson Jewell, Nick Bell, Phillip Hamilton, Sean Martin, Xavier Le Jeune
DEAiden Lyczek, Avery Hughes, Bryan Hall, Christian Smith, Elysha Campbell, Ikenna Ozurumba, Jaden Brock, Rhoen Breen, Romane Grant
DTAlex McCalop, Bryce Rothwell, Clancy Orie, Clinton Anyagafu, Gabriel George, Griffen Willis, Matt Reyes
GBen Reiland, Hoke Smith II, Isaac Bunker, Jace Williams, Jack Heath, Jackson DeLoach, John Hebert, Matt McMahon, Paul McClune IV, Peter Vomvolakis, Will Hampton, Wyatt Ferguson, Zarian Simms
LBAllen Anderson, Amahd Clark, Anthony Giorgi, Bishop Rellah, Brady O'Connor, Brandon Ihle, Christian Johnson, Cody Fair, Coleman Cauley, Daveon Jones, Dom Purcell, E.J. Walker, Gavin Widener, Gavin Woods, Harry Beacham III, Ian Hall, JaSean McLean, Jacob Asbeck, Jaden Holder, Jaden Mangini, James Deyo, Job Grant, Julian Terry, Justin Coles, Kaleb Nelson, Kyle Ramos, Luke Lawson, Luke Mitchell, Mac Barrow II, Mackenzie Ardoin, Maddox Hayles, MarcAnthony Parker, Marcus Bleazard, Mason Frey, Matt Karpinsky, Nash Beenen, Nick Rose, Noah Beck, Nolan McCamy, Ronin Simms, Seth English, Teddy Androus, Terrez Boothe, Trent Gillis, Will Miller, Xavier Sanchez
OTAlex Brewer, Connor Heater, Drew Fontana, Garison Millsaps, Hansen Collie, James Cardinali, Joe Alnwick, Karson Young, Logan Wegman, Mack Taylor, Malcolm Johnson, Matt Tomaszewski, Peter Bonnet, Sean Crowley
QBBrady Carmical, Braxton Woodson, Evan Blouir, Jackson Gutierrez, Jason Williams Jr., Jett Taylor, Landon Walker, Maverick Chance, Michael Dove, Ryan Brass
RBAydin Woolfolk, Chris Daley II, Christian Cromer, Jacob Williams, Jadyn Jones, Jai Hundley, Jeremiah Wingfield, Julian Turney, Quinton Ezzard, Stefan Egbe, Tyler Wall, Vic Listorti
SAaron Rose, Cam Robinson, Carson de Avila, Collin Seals, Conner Lessane, Giuseppe Sessi, Gunnar Reger, Jonah Cali, Joshua Switzer, Kush'i Abraham, Matthew Seliga, Maxwell Williams, Tre Winters, Trent Gray, Zyon McKenzie
WRAkeem Clark, Andersen Cardoza, Andre Gilbert Jr., Armoni Spurlock, Arnel Heathington, Bash Bodily, Braeden George, Braeden Stuart, Casey Smith, Cayden Alula, Charles Robinson, Gage Leonard, Gus Anderson, Ihsaan Alozie, Isaiah Bryant, JP Donovan, James Cusick II, Jeremiah Chalmers, Joshua Guerin, Landon Dolhancyk, Luke Hutchison, Maddax Fayard, Michael Barrow, Noah Bull, Prosper Akanna, Santino Sanchez, Tre Jones III, Truman Brasfield, Tyler Breedlove
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Navy
3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
AAC title odds: +412 → +825 (▼8.7pp implied)
Aac title odds dropped 8.7pp without an obvious public catalyst.
- News
Win total: 7.5 → 8.5 (▲1)
Win total climbed from 7.5 to 8.5 without a clear public catalyst — worth watching as the offseason firms up.
- Recruiting
Brennan Downing commits to Navy
CB pressure was already real with two draft exits and a #131 class rank — Newberry pulling a Florida Panhandle standout poised to start at South Walton tells you the portal window isn't the only pipeline he's working.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-14.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: -9.1 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB-3.6
low confidence
OT-3.5
low confidence
QB-2.0
low confidence
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Alex Brewer
#1358 national
★★★☆☆
Kaden Olson
#2052 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Kaden Glover
#2352 national
Profiles like a typical incoming tight end — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Complete TE archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
50
PA · 7TX · 5CA · 4FL · 4MD · 4IL · 3LA · 3MS · 3+11 more
PA leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 19 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
149 signees across 31 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Navy player grew up 563 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Middle 50%255–933 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi15%27 of 186 players
Farthest2,406 miTruman Brasfield · Corvallis, OR
Closest1 miCasey Smith · Annapolis, MD
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 186 of 197 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Service academies are left out of the national ranking: their rosters arrive through congressional nomination and a service commitment, not ordinary recruiting, so ranking them against it would compare two different things. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats Army 17-16
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats Memphis 28-17
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats USF 41-38
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Belief history
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
79th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market≈
79th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
8.5
Vegas O/U wins
(82nd among FBS)
(82nd among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 2 books
Penalties
Penalty battle
15 penalties committed, 11 drawn on opponents — ceding 40 yards of field position.
125 penalty yards committed vs. 85 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site