Navy

Home-field advantage · Navy · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Navy is worth +1.6 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 11th percentile of 133 programs

56% at home, 44% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (22–17 home, 18–23 away). Interval ±4.3.

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Navy has beaten the number by +1.8 more at home than away over 64 games — inside the ±8.0 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium seats 34,000 and has averaged 93% full (31,652, 22 games reported). Visitors cover a median 788 miles to get here (2018-present). 15% of the 2026 roster (27 of 186 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 45 home games since 2018. No national trip rank shown: the ranked field is FBS venues only and leaves out the service academies and venues with too few measured games. Service-academy rosters are filled by congressional nomination rather than ordinary recruiting and run well past normal FBS size — read the local share against that.