North Texas beats Navy 49-39

Team pages: North Texas · Navy

North Texas5-249
Navy2-539Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Md. · Crowd 33,166CBS Sports Network

North Texas beat Navy 49-39.

We had North Texas favored. It won.

Next: North Texas vs Florida Atlantic, Thu Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ET · North Texas favored by 13.5

Next: Navy vs Notre Dame, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Navy underdog by 30.5

How it swung

The turning point: White 59-yd TD run, North Texas leads 49-39 (Q4, 9:38). North Texas went from 65% to 92% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Texas a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (North Texas was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

A tight one: North Texas bottomed out at 42% and won.

Navy never had better than a 58% chance.

Punt return TDNorth Texas · Q2 4:22Fumble return TDNorth Texas · Q3 7:55
FinalNorth Texas 49-39 NavyNorth Texas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfNorth TexasNavyWon49-3912−20+27ScoresPunt return TDFumble return TD
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfNorth TexasNavyWon49-3912ScoresPunt return TDFumble return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfNavyNorth TexasLost39-4912+20−27ScoresPunt return TDFumble return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfNavyNorth TexasLost39-4912ScoresPunt return TDFumble return TD

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 10:49Barrow 4-yd TD run, cuts it to 42-39North Texas 86% → 66% (−20)
  2. 2Q4 9:38White 59-yd TD run, North Texas leads 49-39North Texas 65% → 92% (+27)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 10:49Barrow 4-yd TD run, cuts it to 42-39Navy 14% → 34% (+20)
  2. 2Q4 9:38White 59-yd TD run, North Texas leads 49-39Navy 35% → 8% (−27)
North Texas’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (North Texas -3), at 55% for North Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show North Texas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 10:05Jackson 45-yd TD pass to StevensonNorth Texas goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:05 · North Texas 7, Navy 0▲19%North Texas’s chance to win, 54% to 73%▲19%North Texas’s chance to win, 54% to 73%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q1, 0:26Jackson 5-yd TD pass to KochNorth Texas leads 14-3Q1, 0:26 · North Texas 14, Navy 3▲11%North Texas’s chance to win, 72% to 83%▲11%North Texas’s chance to win, 72% to 83%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q2, 11:28Gutierrez 18-yd TD runcuts it to 14-10Q2, 11:28 · North Texas 14, Navy 10▼10%North Texas’s chance to win, 79% to 69%▼10%North Texas’s chance to win, 79% to 69%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q2, 10:05White 3-yd TD runNorth Texas leads 21-10Q2, 10:05 · North Texas 21, Navy 10▲5%North Texas’s chance to win, 75% to 80%▲5%North Texas’s chance to win, 75% to 80%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q2, 4:22Carnes 76-yd punt return TDNorth Texas leads 28-10Q2, 4:22 · North Texas 28, Navy 10▲9%North Texas’s chance to win, 85% to 94%▲9%North Texas’s chance to win, 85% to 94%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q2, 0:11Gutierrez 1-yd TD runcuts it to 28-17Q2, 0:11 · North Texas 28, Navy 17▼3%North Texas’s chance to win, 92% to 89%▼3%North Texas’s chance to win, 92% to 89%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q3, 7:55Barker 63-yd fumble return TDNorth Texas leads 35-17Q3, 7:55 · North Texas 35, Navy 17▲16%North Texas’s chance to win, 80% to 96%▲16%North Texas’s chance to win, 80% to 96%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  8. Q3, 5:57Gutierrez 43-yd TD runcuts it to 35-25Q3, 5:57 · North Texas 35, Navy 25▼9%North Texas’s chance to win, 94% to 85%▼9%North Texas’s chance to win, 94% to 85%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  9. Q3, 4:30Jackson 53-yd TD pass to StevensonNorth Texas leads 42-25Q3, 4:30 · North Texas 42, Navy 25▲8%North Texas’s chance to win, 87% to 95%▲8%North Texas’s chance to win, 87% to 95%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  10. Q3, 1:55Jackson intercepted by Oniha at the Navy 50Q3, 1:55 · North Texas 42, Navy 2542-25score after the play42-25score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  11. Q3, 0:15Gutierrez 15-yd TD pass to Barrowcuts it to 42-32Q3, 0:15 · North Texas 42, Navy 32▼5%North Texas’s chance to win, 92% to 87%▼5%North Texas’s chance to win, 92% to 87%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  12. Q4, 10:49Barrow 4-yd TD runcuts it to 42-39Q4, 10:49 · North Texas 42, Navy 39▼20%North Texas’s chance to win, 86% to 66%▼20%North Texas’s chance to win, 86% to 66%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  13. Q4, 9:38White 59-yd TD runNorth Texas leads 49-39Q4, 9:38 · North Texas 49, Navy 39▲27%North Texas’s chance to win, 65% to 92%▲27%North Texas’s chance to win, 65% to 92%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

North Texas scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Navy on 6 of its 12.

North Texas’s drives are teal, Navy’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Navy: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 52DownsNorth Texas: Touchdown, from 48 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Field goalNorth Texas: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2North Texas: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Punt, from 84 yards out to 78PuntNorth Texas: Punt, from 65 yards out to 61PuntNavy: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 81 yards out to 73Punt TDNavy: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Texas: End of half, from 75 yards out to 77End of halfQ3North Texas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntNavy: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 80 yards out to 37Fumble Return TDNavy: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Texas: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 25DownsNorth Texas: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionNavy: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Texas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntQ4Navy: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Texas: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntNorth Texas: End of game, from 83 yards out to 22End of game

From Navy’s side

Navy’s best moment: Barrow 4-yd TD run, cuts it to 42-39 (Q4 10:49). It lifted Navy’s win chance by 20 points.

What it cost

North Texas’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.

Make the playoff

North Texas · won1% → ▲2%
Navy · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

North Texas · won19% → ▲21%19%▲ 21%
Navy · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

North Texas plays vs Florida Atlantic on Thu Oct 29 with a 2% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

North Texas 49, Navy 39

North Texas covered −3 by 7. The total, 88, went over 60.5.

North TexasNavyTotal yardsNorth Texas 477Navy 506477506Passing yardsNorth Texas 305Navy 143305143Rushing yardsNorth Texas 172Navy 363172363First downsNorth Texas 21Navy 302130TurnoversNorth Texas 1Navy 111Time of possessionNorth Texas 22:29Navy 37:3122:2937:31
Team totalsNorth TexasNavy
Total yards477506
Passing17 of 23, 305 yds8 of 12, 143 yds
Rushing29 for 172 yds65 for 363 yds
First downs2130
Third down3 of 75 of 12
Fourth down1 of 11 of 3
Turnovers11
Penalties7 for 80 yds1 for 5 yds
Time of possession22:2937:31

North Texas leaders

  • Passing Tayven Jackson 17 of 23, 305 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jahiem White 20 for 174 yds, 2 TD; Brendon Haygood 4 for 15 yds
  • Receiving Justin Stevenson 8 for 209 yds, 2 TD; Jahiem White 4 for 58 yds

Navy leaders

  • Passing Jackson Gutierrez 7 of 10, 133 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jackson Gutierrez 26 for 228 yds, 3 TD; Michael Barrow 21 for 92 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Merrick Barlow 2 for 64 yds; Charles Robinson 3 for 32 yds

No rain through the game

60° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Navy favoredNorth Texas favored0%Win chanceNavyRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Navy favoredNorth Texas favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 9:38 left6:29 p.m.
North Texas 49, Navy 39 · Navy 8% to win
no rain · 57°
White 59-yd TD run, North Texas leads 49-39

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Annapolis airport, 1.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

North Texas · 4-2

Rated 135th in our preseason ratings, 66th now, up 69 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 50-10 vs Charlotte No. 226 of 668 teams

won by 40 as a 27.5-point favorite

North Texas won 50-10 vs Charlotte. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 45-44 @ Tulsa No. 111 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 3-point favorite

North Texas won 45-44 at Tulsa. Chance to win started at 49%, low 15%, high better than 99%.

W 63-14 vs Houston Christian No. 234 of 668 teams

won by 49 as a 38.5-point favorite

North Texas won 63-14 vs Houston Christian. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 35-49 @ Texas State No. 38 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 3-point underdog

North Texas lost 35-49 at Texas State. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 51%.

W 44-6 vs UNLV No. 98 of 668 teams

won by 38 as a 3-point underdog

North Texas won 44-6 vs UNLV. Chance to win started at 49%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

L 16-52 @ IndianaTop 25 No. 8 of 668 teams

lost by 36 as a 39.5-point underdog

North Texas lost 16-52 at Indiana. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Last three games

Navy · 2-4

Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 67th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 34-38 @ UTSA No. 33 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 5.5-point underdog

Navy lost 34-38 at UTSA. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 74%.

W 34-26 vs Tulsa No. 111 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 3-point favorite

Navy won 34-26 vs Tulsa. Chance to win started at 68%, low 18%, high better than 99%.

L 9-14 @ Air Force No. 83 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 2.5-point underdog

Navy lost 9-14 at Air Force. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 46%.

L 20-24 @ UAB No. 64 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 6.5-point favorite

Navy lost 20-24 at UAB. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 81%.

L 30-38 @ Florida Atlantic No. 110 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 4.5-point favorite

Navy lost 30-38 at Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 54%, low under 1%, high 66%.

W 42-15 vs Towson No. 173 of 668 teams

won by 27 as a 31.5-point favorite

Navy won 42-15 vs Towson. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Navy

Wk 2: L 30-38 at Florida Atlantic▼8F. Atlan…Wk 4: L 20-24 at UAB▼4UABWk 5: L 9-14 at Air Force▼5Air ForceWk 6: W 34-26 vs Tulsa▲8TulsaWk 7: L 34-38 at UTSA▼4UTSA
  • Wk 2Lat Florida Atlantic30-38
  • Wk 4Lat UAB20-24
  • Wk 5Lat Air Force9-14
  • Wk 6Wvs Tulsa34-26
  • Wk 7Lat UTSA34-38

North Texas

Wk 2: W 44-6 vs UNLV▲38UNLVWk 3: L 35-49 at Texas State▼14Texas St.Wk 4: W 63-14 vs Houston Christian▲49Houston…Wk 5: W 45-44 at Tulsa▲1TulsaWk 6: W 50-10 vs Charlotte▲40Charlotte
  • Wk 2Wvs UNLV44-6
  • Wk 3Lat Texas State35-49
  • Wk 4Wvs Houston Christian63-14
  • Wk 5Wat Tulsa45-44
  • Wk 6Wvs Charlotte50-10

Power rating by week

North Texas is rated 0.1 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

3-2-7Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7NavyNorth Texas

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: North Texas’s explosive plays against Navy, 84 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. North Texas’s EPA/play against Navy’s defense

    79 pointsweakerstronger50th

    North Texas offense, 97th percentile · Navy defense, 18th

  2. North Texas’s explosive plays against Navy’s defense

    84 pointsweakerstronger50th

    North Texas offense, 87th percentile · Navy defense, 3rd

  3. Navy’s passing EPA against North Texas’s defense

    74 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Navy offense, 76th percentile · North Texas defense, 2nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

North TexasNavy
EPA/play, offense
North Texas · 97Navy · 63
EPA/play, defense
North Texas · 45Navy · 18
Success rate, offense
North Texas · 92Navy · 71
Success rate, defense
North Texas · 34Navy · 53
Explosive-play rate, offense
North Texas · 87Navy · 53
Explosive-play rate, defense
North Texas · 42Navy · 3
Rush EPA, offense
North Texas · 79Navy · 82
Rush EPA, defense
North Texas · 61Navy · 45
Pass EPA, offense
North Texas · 97Navy · 76
Pass EPA, defense
North Texas · 2Navy · 24

The series

Navy leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2007 · North Texas won the last meeting

  • 2025North Texas 31-17Navy lost 17-31 at North Texas. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 23%.
  • 2023Navy 27-24Navy won 27-24 vs North Texas. Chance to win started at 58%, low 38%, high 97%.
  • 2007Navy 74-62

Each line is Navy’s chance to win through that meeting. Navy is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Navy fans are in a better mood than North Texas fans (49th percentile vs 32nd among FBS fanbases), even with North Texas favored.

50-50Model 46% · Line 40%Navy fans · 49thNorth Texas fans · 32ndNorth TexasNavy

North Texas favored by 3 · Total 60.5

How games like this usually go

North Texas by 3, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward North Texas.

opened +1.5now +3

The total fell 1 point.

opened 61.5now 60.5

Spread: +1.5 → +3 · Total: 61.5 → 60.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Navy is worth +1.6 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 14th percentile.

56% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (23-18 home, 18-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.5 at home vs. away over 91 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,217 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full American Athletic standings