The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 3:39Navy fans rip Carlson's short punt as UAB fans mock the disasterBrutal punt for Carlsonr/CFB game thread
Q4 10:46McReynolds runs for a touchdown to give UAB a 24-20 leadThat was fast!r/CFB game thread
Q4 9:52Fans worry about a player after a brutal hit with poor tackling techniqueQuoted at the top of the page.Hope that kid is ok man that was a brutal hitr/CFB game thread
Q4 7:02Navy fans lament a fumble by Barrow that kills a drive with 7:02 left2 methodical drives killed by just dumb mistakesr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:47UAB misses a 47-yard field goal as Navy fans mock the quarterback's accuracyJuuuust a bit outside.r/CFB game threadWhy not go for it. Why trust a college kickerr/CFB game thread
UAB’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Navy -6.5), at 35% for UAB (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UAB or Navy flair (91 and 28); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show UAB’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.
Too close to call on 70% of plays.
What it cost
UAB’s chance to win the conference rose from 3% to 4%.
Win the conference
Navy · lost0% → 0%
UAB · won3% → ▲4%
Before the game (September 24, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
UAB 24, Navy 20
UAB covered +6.5 by 10.5. The total, 44, stayed under 50.5.
Team totals
Navy
UAB
Total yards
353
290
Passing
4 of 13, 104 yds
13 of 20, 174 yds
Rushing
58 for 249 yds
34 for 116 yds
First downs
24
15
Third down
7 of 15
6 of 13
Fourth down
2 of 3
0 of 0
Turnovers
2
1
Penalties
2 for 10 yds
4 for 40 yds
Time of possession
34:22
25:38
Navy leaders
Passing Jackson Gutierrez 4 of 13, 104 yds
Rushing Jackson Gutierrez 34 for 134 yds, 1 TD; Michael Barrow 9 for 48 yds
Receiving Vic Listorti 1 for 39 yds; Truman Brasfield 1 for 39 yds
UAB leaders
Passing Ryder Burton 13 of 20, 174 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Braylon McReynolds 8 for 71 yds, 2 TD; Roderick Robinson II 12 for 38 yds
Receiving Tiaquelin Mims 3 for 76 yds, 1 TD; C.J. Smith 3 for 39 yds
No rain and calm
79° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the northeast, gusts to 7
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Fourth quarter, 10:36 left8:45 p.m.
Navy 20, UAB 24 · UAB 59% to win
no rain · wind 3 mph from the east-northeast · 69°
McReynolds 48-yd TD run, UAB goes ahead 24-20
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Birmingham Muni airport, 4.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Navy · 1-1
Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 80th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
UAB is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Navy’s rushing EPA against UAB, 63 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Navy’s rushing EPA against UAB’s defense
Navy offense, 90th percentile · UAB defense, 27th
Navy’s explosive plays against UAB’s defense
Navy offense, 52nd percentile · UAB defense, 95th
Navy’s success rate against UAB’s defense
Navy offense, 72nd percentile · UAB defense, 18th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
NavyUAB
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Navy leads the series 3-0
3 meetings since 2023 · Navy has won the last 3
2025Navy 38-24
2024Navy 41-18
2023Navy 31-6
Each line is UAB’s chance to win through that meeting. UAB is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
UAB fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (97th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Model · 61%
Line · 30%
UAB fans · 97th
Navy fans · 21st
Navy favored by 6.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Navy by 6.5, on the usual path until 0:36 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward UAB.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +11.5 → +6.5 · Total: 53.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
UAB is worth +6.7 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.
71% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (29-12 home, 16-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.1 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 686 miles to get here.
UAB 24-20 Navy
UAB wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.