Tulsa beats Sam Houston 23-17

Team pages: Tulsa · Sam Houston

Tulsa2-023
Sam Houston0-217Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TexasESPN+

Tulsa beat Sam Houston 23-17.

We had Tulsa favored. It won.

Next: Tulsa beat East Texas A&M 42-0, Sat Sep 19

Next: Sam Houston beat Nicholls 59-0, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Locke 94-yd TD pass to Parker, Sam Houston goes ahead 14-7 (Q2, 6:48). Tulsa went from 75% to 51% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tulsa a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Tulsa was a 12.5-point favorite) put it at 84%.

A tight one: Tulsa bottomed out at 46% and won.

Sam Houston never had better than a 54% chance.

94-yard TD passSam Houston · Q2 6:4881-yard TD runTulsa · Q3 7:22
FinalTulsa 23-17 Sam HoustonTulsa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q446% at halfTulsaWon23-1712−24+17Scores81-yard TD run
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q446% at halfTulsaWon23-1712Scores81-yard TD run
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q454% at halfTulsaLost17-2312+24−17Scores81-yard TD run
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q454% at halfTulsaLost17-2312Scores81-yard TD run

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 6:48Locke 94-yd TD pass to Parker, Sam Houston goes ahead 14-7Tulsa 75% → 51% (−24)
  2. 2Q3 10:104th and 10Lawyer 56-yd TD run, Tulsa goes ahead 16-14Tulsa 57% → 74% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 6:48Locke 94-yd TD pass to Parker, Sam Houston goes ahead 14-7Sam Houston 25% → 49% (+24)
  2. 2Q3 10:104th and 10Lawyer 56-yd TD run, Tulsa goes ahead 16-14Sam Houston 43% → 26% (−17)
Tulsa’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Tulsa -12.5), at 74% for Tulsa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Tulsa scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Sam Houston on 3 of its 11.

Tulsa’s drives are teal, Sam Houston’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Sam Houston: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTulsa: Turned over on downs, from 63 yards out to 6DownsSam Houston: Punt, from 94 yards out to 89PuntTulsa: Punt, from 50 yards out to 48PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 88 yards out to 79PuntTulsa: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Sam Houston: Punt, from 67 yards out to 56PuntTulsa: Punt, from 86 yards out to 51PuntSam Houston: Touchdown, from 94 yards out to 0TouchdownTulsa: Field goal, from 67 yards out to 23Field goalSam Houston: Punt, from 76 yards out to 67PuntTulsa: Punt, from 80 yards out to 65PuntSam Houston: End of half, from 67 yards out to 52End of halfQ3Tulsa: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownSam Houston: Punt, from 74 yards out to 55PuntTulsa: Touchdown, from 89 yards out to 0TouchdownSam Houston: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 21Field goalTulsa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntQ4Sam Houston: Turned over on downs, from 72 yards out to 45DownsTulsa: Turned over on downs, from 55 yards out to 33DownsSam Houston: Fumble, from 67 yards out to 19FumbleTulsa: End of game, from 81 yards out to 84End of game

From Sam Houston’s side

Sam Houston’s best moment: Locke 94-yd TD pass to Parker, Sam Houston goes ahead 14-7 (Q2 6:48). It lifted Sam Houston’s win chance by 24 points.

When fans got loud

Fans had the most to say in the fourth quarter.

  1. first quarter
  2. second quarter
  3. third quarter
  4. fourth quarter
How we know

We look at when the most different fans were posting during the game thread, then name the part of the game it falls in. Only threads with a clear peak and enough fans get a word.

What it cost

Sam Houston’s chance to win the conference fell from 5% to 4%.

Win the conference

Tulsa · won4% → 4%
Sam Houston · lost5% → ▼4%5%▼ 4%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17

Sam Houston covered +12.5 by 6.5. The total, 40, stayed under 51.5.

TulsaSam HoustonTotal yardsTulsa 367Sam Houston 371367371Passing yardsTulsa 126Sam Houston 316126316Rushing yardsTulsa 241Sam Houston 5524155First downsTulsa 18Sam Houston 191819TurnoversTulsa 0Sam Houston 101Time of possessionTulsa 30:18Sam Houston 29:4230:1829:42
Team totalsTulsaSam Houston
Total yards367371
Passing16 of 33, 126 yds24 of 35, 316 yds
Rushing40 for 241 yds31 for 55 yds
First downs1819
Third down4 of 175 of 13
Fourth down4 of 60 of 2
Turnovers01
Penalties4 for 25 yds7 for 76 yds
Time of possession30:1829:42

Tulsa leaders

  • Passing Baylor Hayes 16 of 29, 126 yds
  • Rushing Trequan Jones 9 for 125 yds, 2 TD; Tristan Lawyer 1 for 56 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Damari Alston 5 for 39 yds; Javon Ross 4 for 33 yds

Sam Houston leaders

  • Passing Landyn Locke 24 of 34, 316 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Alton McCaskill 14 for 48 yds; Landan Brown 6 for 25 yds
  • Receiving Jerrian Parker 2 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Chris Reed 4 for 93 yds, 1 TD

Feels like 98° to 104° through the game

97° at kickoff · feels like 98° to 104° · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the south-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 23

A feels-like 104° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 104°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 104°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Sam Houston favoredTulsa favored0%Win chanceSam HoustonRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphTemperature and feels likedegrees F80°110°feels like 98°air 87°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Sam Houston favoredTulsa favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Temperature and feels like · degrees F80°110°feels like 98°air 87°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 6:48 left7:05 p.m.
Tulsa 7, Sam Houston 14 · Sam Houston 49% to win
no rain · wind 12 mph from the southeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 23 · 93°, feels like 101°
Locke 94-yd TD pass to Parker, Sam Houston goes ahead 14-7

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Huntsville Municipal Airport, 3.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Tulsa · 4-8

Rated 107th in our preseason ratings, 113th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Army as a 9.5-point underdog.

L 24-31 vs UAB #159 of 667

lost by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

Tulsa lost 24-31 vs UAB. Chance to win started at 81%, low 15%, high 91%.

W 26-25 @ Army #126 of 667

won by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog

Tulsa won 26-25 at Army. Chance to win started at 19%, low 1%, high better than 99%.

W 31-14 vs Oregon State #143 of 667

won by 17 as a 1.5-point favorite

Tulsa won 31-14 vs Oregon State. Chance to win started at 62%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

L 21-40 @ Florida Atlantic #100 of 667

lost by 19 as a 4.5-point underdog

Tulsa lost 21-40 at Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 34%.

L 37-38 vs Temple #110 of 667

lost by 1 as a 3.5-point underdog

Tulsa lost 37-38 vs Temple. Chance to win started at 54%, low under 1%, high 60%.

L 27-41 @ East Carolina #64 of 667

lost by 14 as a 16.5-point underdog

Tulsa lost 27-41 at East Carolina. Chance to win started at 10%, low under 1%, high 11%.

L 7-45 @ MemphisTop 25 #25 of 667

lost by 38 as a 21.5-point underdog

Tulsa lost 7-45 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 7%.

L 14-31 vs TulaneTop 25 #52 of 667

lost by 17 as a 14.5-point underdog

Tulsa lost 14-31 vs Tulane. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 32%.

W 19-12 @ Oklahoma State #87 of 667

won by 7 as a 10.5-point underdog

Tulsa won 19-12 at Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 17%, low 12%, high better than 99%.

L 23-42 vs NavyTop 25 #82 of 667

lost by 19 as a 13.5-point underdog

Tulsa lost 23-42 vs Navy. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 66%.

L 14-21 @ New Mexico State #201 of 667

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 35-7 vs Abilene Christian #131 of 667

won by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite

Tulsa won 35-7 vs Abilene Christian. Chance to win started at 72%, low 59%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Sam Houston · 2-10

Rated 165th in our preseason ratings, 160th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Delaware as a 13.5-point underdog.

L 16-56 vs Florida International #96 of 667

lost by 40 as a 10.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 16-56 vs Florida International. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 37%.

L 17-31 @ Middle Tennessee #190 of 667

lost by 14 as a 6.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 17-31 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 77%.

W 26-23 vs Delaware #157 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

Sam Houston won 26-23 vs Delaware. Chance to win started at 20%, low 7%, high better than 99%.

W 21-17 @ Oregon State #130 of 667

won by 4 as a 21.5-point underdog

Sam Houston won 21-17 at Oregon State. Chance to win started at 5%, low 1%, high 71%.

L 14-55 @ Louisiana Tech #94 of 667

lost by 41 as a 16.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 14-55 at Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 17-35 vs UTEP #150 of 667

lost by 18 as a 3.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 17-35 vs UTEP. Chance to win started at 53%, low under 1%, high 76%.

L 27-29 vs Jacksonville State #110 of 667

lost by 2 as a 7.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 27-29 vs Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 87%.

L 10-37 @ New Mexico State #189 of 667

lost by 27 as a 1.5-point favorite

Sam Houston lost 10-37 at New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 56%.

L 0-55 @ TexasTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 55 as a 39.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 0-55 at Texas. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 20-37 @ Hawai'i #151 of 667

lost by 17 as a 7.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 20-37 at Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 24%.

L 21-38 vs UNLV #71 of 667

lost by 17 as an 8.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 21-38 vs UNLV. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 35%.

L 24-41 @ Western Kentucky #83 of 667

lost by 17 as a 10.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 24-41 at Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 39%.

Week by week

Sam Houston

  • Wk 1Lat Troy21-24

Tulsa

  • Wk 1Wvs Oklahoma State24-10

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Tulsa’s rushing EPA against Sam Houston, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Tulsa’s rushing EPA against Sam Houston’s defense

    63 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Tulsa offense, 70th percentile · Sam Houston defense, 7th

  2. Sam Houston’s EPA/play against Tulsa’s defense

    43 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sam Houston offense, 11th percentile · Tulsa defense, 54th

  3. Sam Houston’s explosive plays against Tulsa’s defense

    19 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sam Houston offense, 54th percentile · Tulsa defense, 73rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TulsaSam Houston
EPA/play, offense
Tulsa · 52Sam Houston · 11
EPA/play, defense
Tulsa · 54Sam Houston · 39
Success rate, offense
Tulsa · 26Sam Houston · 12
Success rate, defense
Tulsa · 42Sam Houston · 50
Explosive-play rate, offense
Tulsa · 50Sam Houston · 54
Explosive-play rate, defense
Tulsa · 73Sam Houston · 56
Rush EPA, offense
Tulsa · 70Sam Houston · 12
Rush EPA, defense
Tulsa · 50Sam Houston · 7
Pass EPA, offense
Tulsa · 39Sam Houston · 15
Pass EPA, defense
Tulsa · 42Sam Houston · 78

The series

Tulsa leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2009 · Tulsa won the last meeting

  • 2009Tulsa 56-3

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Tulsa fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (93rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 38%
  • Line · 16%
  • Sam Houston fans · 63rd
  • Tulsa fans · 93rd

Tulsa favored by 12.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Tulsa by 12.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Tulsa.

opened +10.5now +12.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 53.5now 51.5

Spread: +10.5 → +12.5 · Total: 53.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 100° at kickoff.

Tulsa at Sam Houston · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville

  • 100°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 50weather score, Rough
  • 2ndbest of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's five kickoff times. At Elliott T. Bowers Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 59, against 50 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 41, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 39, Harsh
  • 3:15 pm: 39, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 50, Rough (this game)
  • 6:45 pm: 59, Rough

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Sam Houston is worth +8.4 points (±5.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

57% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (8-6 home, 5-18 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 40 games — inside the ±10.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 376 miles to get here.

Where next