The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 9 Alabama 53%, No. 16 Tennessee 67%, No. 10 Texas 67%
Win out 23% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
LSU's chance to win each game left, from our model: Alabama 53%, Texas 67%, Tennessee 67%, Arkansas 97%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.
Playoff chance went from 19% to 44%, peaking at 44% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
