SEC LSU

Head coach Lane Kiffin · 1st season · 6-2 at LSU

Record6-23-2 SEC · T-5th
CFPNo. 14week 10 poll
Playoff43%to make the field
Nextvs AlabamaSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET · ABC

The rest of the season

Three real tests left: No. 9 Alabama 53%, No. 16 Tennessee 67%, No. 10 Texas 67%

Win out 23% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins

LSU's chance to win each game left, from our model: Alabama 53%, Texas 67%, Tennessee 67%, Arkansas 97%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 19% to 44%, peaking at 44% before a game

19%31%W41%W31%L35%W25%L40%W44%W

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 5th in the SEC · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Sam Leavitt 2,171 · Rushing Dilin Jones 659 · Receiving Jackson Harris 634 All player stats

The nationAP #15 · Coaches #15 · CFP #14no change · week 10 poll
The model#7 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #3 (+25.2) · FPI #5
The marketLSU by 5.5Betting line vs Alabama · our model 53% LSU

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8

Follow LSU:athletics siteSECXYouTubeInstagram

Schedule and results

LSU · 2026 schedule and results6-2Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 61% · 2 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 3 wins over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #31 to #8
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#31#11−10✓ +31ClemsonTop 25 winW 51-10 142LSU won 51-10 vs Clemson. Chance to win started at 83%, low 73%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Leavitt 230 · Rush Leavitt 113 · Rec Watkins 110
2Sep 12#27#88−34.5✗ −3.5Louisiana TechW 45-14 140LSU won 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 99%, low 96%, high better than 99%.2-00-0Pass Leavitt 344 · Rush Jones 66 · Rec Green 104
3Sep 19#24#13−3✗ −11@Ole MissL 24-32 143LSU lost 24-32 at Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 62%. Firestorm2-10-1Pass Leavitt 158 · Rush Jones 106 · Rec Green 60
4Sep 26#20#8−8.5✓ +20.5Texas A&MTop 25 winW 35-6 126LSU won 35-6 vs Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 79%, low 73%, high better than 99%.3-11-1Pass Leavitt 312 · Rush Jones 63 · Rec Harris 163
5Oct 3#14#215−53.5✗ −4.5McNeeseW 63-14 148LSU won 63-14 vs McNeese. Never in doubt.4-11-1Pass Leavitt 176 · Rush Berry 125 · Rec Barber Jr. 83
6Oct 10#11#55−9.5✗ −10.5@KentuckyL 34-35 139LSU lost 34-35 at Kentucky. Chance to win started at 67%, low under 1%, high 95%. Loud4-21-2Pass Leavitt 275 · Rush Jones 56 · Rec Jones 84
7Oct 17#12#70−17.5✓ +13.5Mississippi StateTop 25 winW 31-0 137LSU won 31-0 vs Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 91%, low 91%, high better than 99%.5-22-2Pass Leavitt 289 · Rush Jones 84 · Rec Harris 85
8Oct 24#8#44−7✓ +14@AuburnW 38-17 145LSU won 38-17 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 63%, low 59%, high better than 99%.6-23-2Pass Leavitt 387 · Rush Jones 92 · Rec Harris 178
9Bye week
10Nov 7#6#8−5.5Alabama3:30 pm ET · ABC53% to win
11Nov 14#7#6+2.5Texastime TBA · ABC67% to win
12Nov 21−1.5@Tennesseetime TBA67% to win
13Nov 28@Arkansastime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for LSU, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for LSU: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 24@AuburnW 38-17552033:41+0.38346.9%1.34
Oct 17Mississippi StateW 31-0379129:50+0.26963.4%0.86Best success rate
Oct 10@KentuckyL 34-35410232:30+0.10650.0%1.22One-score loss
Oct 3McNeeseW 63-14731137:13+0.42257.8%1.14Season-high EPA/play
Sep 26Texas A&MW 35-6506130:19+0.32243.9%1.42Most explosive
Sep 19@Ole MissL 24-32330130:15+0.23245.7%1.11Defense's roughest night
Sep 12Louisiana TechW 45-14528434:09+0.02046.0%1.25Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5ClemsonW 51-10644136:09+0.41953.7%1.34Blowout win
Season average (8 games)5101.4+0.27250.9%1.21

LSU's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line8.5 winsover +110
Offense eliteDefense eliteDefensive shape bend-don't-break

Season expectations

Win total2 booksOver/under 8.5▲1 since Sep 9
CFP championship#8 in field+800
SEC title#3 in market+600

Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Projected playoff bracket: No. 10 seed

Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7LSU-Alabamavs AP #9 Alabama · at home
Sat Nov 14AP #10 Texasvs Texas · at home
Sat Nov 28Battle for the Golden Bootat Arkansas · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

LSU has won four of its last five.

6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.

Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
I mean, all I gotta do is do my job, and he’s gonna do his job, and then, you know, that trust comes naturally like that. The more passes he throws me, you know, the more plays I make, he’s gonna trust me to make that play on critical downs, and when we need plays
Harris · The Reveille4 days before LSU's 2026 game against Alabama

Playoff chance, day by day

44% now · ▼ 8 points in the last week

070%44%High 53%, Oct 29Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

2 storylines developing

What LSU’s program standing is really about

The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?

Dynastythis cyclenew

LSU has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-14% tier since 2024, and Brian Kelly’s fourth season raises the question of whether the program can sustain.

What happenedLSU has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 13% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 14%.
The contexta 24-12 record over the last three regular seasons

Statusdeveloping

Coachingthis cyclenew

Kiffin inherits a 7-6 roster with 66% production returning and a #6 talent rank — the unease lingers, but the cupboard isn’t bare, and the program’s nocturnal ambition demands answers.

What happenedLane Kiffin took over as LSU's head coach, replacing Frank Wilson.
The contextreplaces 4-year head coach Brian Kelly (34-14)

Statusbackground

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedLSU moved on from that hire — a new coaching change began the following season. See who's next →
AnsweredLSU's fall from dynasty-caliber territory held — it stayed out.
Died downLSU's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downLSU's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · LSU · 2026

LSU’s most likely regular season is 9-3. 94% of outcomes land from 8-4 to 10-2.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

7 wins 6%; 8 wins 28%; 9 wins 44%; 10 wins 23%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-5A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.
Base10-3A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · LSU · Program power

LSU is slipping in the power ratings.

LSU has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 13% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 14%. It is a 24-12 record over the last three regular seasons. The three-year power rating shows a slip, and the coverage is split on whether it is a dip or a trend.

bullish, with real dissent doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Skeptics1 doubtful post
Believers5 upbeat posts
Drama: simmering
Developing3 new this week
4 days agoBaylor seeks buyout money for Aranda
6 days agoFive-star G Reese Alston commits to LSU
last weekKiffin calls out SEC scheduling
last weekSEC sues LSU over eligibility
last weekBaylor fires Dave Aranda.
Our read
LSU has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-14% tier since 2024, and Brian Kelly’s fourth season raises the question of whether the program can sustain.
Source of record: LSU has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 13% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 14% — a 24-12 record over the last three regular seasons.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics dissent
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “Sorting out SEC chaos as LSU begins crucial November”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“Sorting out SEC chaos as LSU begins crucial November”
NOLA.com · Nov 2 · read ↗
📣Believers5 bullish/momentum items making the case that it's working.›

The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.

“Will Wade Era Sequel Debuts With 100-57 Win Over LSU-New Orleans”
TigerRag.com | · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Where is LSU football in first CFP committee rankings?”
LSU Wire · Nov 4 · read ↗
“LSU Lands On The Bubble In First College Football Playoff Rankings”
TigerRag.com | · Nov 4 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “LSU Has Plenty of Reasons to Question the First College…”.›

The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.

“LSU Has Plenty of Reasons to Question the First College Football Playoff Rankings”
Sports Illustrated · Nov 4 · read ↗
Following now · LSU · Coaching

New coverage keeps arriving on Lane Kiffin at LSU.

Lane Kiffin took over as LSU's head coach, replacing Frank Wilson. It is replaces 4-year head coach Brian Kelly (34-14). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The skeptical coverage is growing, and the evidence points both ways.

Developing6 new this week
yesterdayLane Kiffin says he's 'sad' about changes to LSU-Alabama rivalry, tells LSU fans to 'start drinking' early · Fox News
yesterdayLane Kiffin says it’s ‘sad’ that LSU won’t play Alabama in 2027 regular season · Saturday Down South
yesterdayLane Kiffin names one culprit as LSU-Alabama game disappears in 2027 · Yahoo Sports
4 days agoBaylor seeks buyout money for Aranda
6 days agoFive-star G Reese Alston commits to LSU
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Lane Kiffin Head coach
“Lane Kiffin says he's 'sad' about changes to LSU-Alabama rivalry, tells LSU fans to 'start drinking' early” — Fox News · 2026-11-03
Frank Wilson Out
Our read
Kiffin inherits a 7-6 roster with 66% production returning and a #6 talent rank — the unease lingers, but the cupboard isn’t bare, and the program’s nocturnal ambition demands answers.
Source of record: Lane Kiffin took over as LSU's head coach, replacing Frank Wilson — replaces 4-year head coach Brian Kelly (34-14).
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quietThe Dominoes active
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “Lane Kiffin suggests LSU’s SEC feud has led to key ‘advantage’…”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“Lane Kiffin suggests LSU’s SEC feud has led to key ‘advantage’ for Alabama in upcoming clash”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 1 · read ↗
“Lane Kiffin just sent a terrible message to his LSU team and he needs to fix it before it's too late”
Yahoo Sports · Oct 29 · read ↗
📣Believers0 bullish/hire items making the case that it's working.›

The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.

“Lane Kiffin's Latest Comments Detail Some Points of Emphasis Against Alabama”
Sports Illustrated · Nov 3 · read ↗
“LSU Favored Big Over Alabama: Can Kiffin and the Tigers Deliver?”
TigerBait.com · Nov 3 · read ↗
“Lane Kiffin says he's 'sad' about changes to LSU-Alabama rivalry, tells LSU fans to 'start drinking' early”
Fox News · Nov 3 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “"That's what we've been used to," Lane Kiffin on playing in…”.›

The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

“"That's what we've been used to," Lane Kiffin on playing in high pressure games in November”
The Reveille, LSU's student newspaper · Nov 3 · read ↗
💬The boards4% of recent board volume, less than the headlines suggest. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (72%).›

This event was in 569 of 15789 board posts (4%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"Not really. Kiffin to LSU happened, but that's kind of it. Of course there was also Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley, but they went from higher programs to even better programs. All 3"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Yes, LSU was forced to pay Kiffin millions bc he is a nepobaby. At least he wasn’t born on 3rd"
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (495 posts): 19% positive · 43% neutral · 38% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

🔗The dominoes14 downstream moves tied to the hire.›

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Where is LSU football in first CFP committee rankings?”
LSU Wire · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Recruiting Tidbits: LSU's push to lock down Louisiana and more”
On3 · Nov 3 · read ↗

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 56 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2

Game feel56even gamescombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate0-2some dramain one-score games (2 of 8)12th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+24.1comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo80uptempooffensive plays / game1st fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.21some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)9th most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd102,321avg attendance3rd biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind·Written June 2026

LSU has three national titles since 2003 and the loudest night in football — and just ate a $54M buyout to bet that Lane Kiffin is the wild card who finally ends the boom-bust.

AP Poll#15 AP

The take that LSU is a sleeping giant that keeps hiring wrong — all that talent, all that money, a revolving door of coaches. The fanbase made the boldest bet in the sport that Lane Kiffin is the…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

LSU · Game-day weather

Typical at Tiger Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 78

  • noon: 78, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 81, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayOffense: Elite, defense: Elite
The experience

LSU is the program that does its loudest thinking at night.

Offense: EliteDefense: EliteDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 8Climbed to No. 18 in the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 31-0 at home over Mississippi State↑4 · from No. 22
  • 2026 · Wk 7Fell to No. 22 in the AP Top 25Week 6 · Lost 34-35 at Kentucky↓12 · from No. 10
  • 2026Hired Lane Kiffin
  • 2025 · Wk 10Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 25-49 at home to Texas A&Mwas No. 20
  • 2025 · Wk 9Fell to No. 20 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Lost 24-31 at Vanderbilt↓10 · from No. 10
  • 2025 · Wk 6Fell to No. 13 in the AP Top 25Week 5 · Lost 19-24 at Ole Miss↓9 · from No. 4
  • 2025 · Wk 2Climbed to No. 3 in the AP Top 25Week 1 · Won 17-10 at Clemson↑6 · from No. 9
  • 2025Frank Wilson departs (interim)2-3
  • 2025Brian Kelly departs34-14
  • 2025Hired Frank Wilson (interim)

Roster and recruiting

Roster21% of production back, talent #8

Roster reload: LSU

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production21%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#8 nationally247 composite 931.8
Portal Additions44Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses41Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss7Heavy NFL Draft loss (7), 2 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#11Top-25 recruiting class
WRin 9 - Eugene Wilson4.38out 7 - Destyn Hill4.28Need Filled
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession ReceiverBoom-or-bustmoves the chains on third down his yards come in chunks — feast or famine
Former four-star
OTin 4 - Jordan Seaton5.00out 7 - Carius Curne4.50Starter Risk
current room: 323 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 4 - Ty Benefield4.50out 6 - Dashawn Spears4.28Starter Risk
current room: 201 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickelmoves between deep coverage and the slot
Transferred in
DLin 4 - Zxavian Harris4.28out 4 - Walter Mathis Jr.4.12Even
current room: 307 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchor2025 profilecontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
Unranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile
RBin 4 - Dilin Jones3.60out 4 - Caden Durham4.12Even
current room: 203 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Satellite Backwins in space out of the backfield
Former four-star
IOLin 4 - Aliou Bah4.25out 3 - Coen Echols3.70Upgrade
current room: 309 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
QB · departedGarrett Nussmeier4★ · Rd 7, Pk 33
Next man up
WR · departedBarion BrownRd 6, Pk 9
NowPhillip Wright III4★ · FR
Next man up
Full roster (113 players)
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★★☆
Peyton Houston
QB · Shreveport, LA
#85 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] LSU Defeats WKU 13-10
1,000 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Postgame Thread] LSU Defeats McNeese 63-14
117 upvotes · Oct 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is far more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
33rd
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
8.5
Sportsbook win total
(79th among FBS)
Market 46pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Where voters differAP voters range from #9 to #20 (week 9)
Voter spread

70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #9, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate), to #20, David Jablonski (Dayton Daily News).

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

RivalsRival pulse: Tulane bullish

Rival pulse

Alabama
Mixed
+4
LSU-Alabama
Face-off →
Tulane
Bullish
+29
Battle for the Rag

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow LSU

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

Who covers this team
TAThe Advocate

Scott Rabalais

LSU sports columnist

No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site