CFB Zeitgeist Score
49
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 54th percentile.
Caden Durham
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
505 RUSH YDS · 3 RUSH TD · 111 CARRIES
In Portal · 2026
In transfer portal
2025LSU
DestinationTBD
RB · LSU · SEC
Caden Durham
- 2
- #29
- 5-9 | 205 lb
- Oklahoma City, OK
Heisman Heat
#47
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025-33%
Sharp dropoff (-33%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
LSU
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-star | 0.9555 | No. 88 recruit | HighSchool | LSU |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LSU -> -- | 4-star | 0.9100 | Withdrawn |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (505).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to LSU
Composite
0.9555
#88 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Caden Durham
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
73
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=15
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Caden Durham
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.120
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #39 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 42nd
Why it matters
#39 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.120 EPA/carry on 105 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.120 (42th)
MODERATE · n=105 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Yards per carry#51 / 69
- Rushing yards (total)#53 / 69
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 12g
505Rush yards
111Carries
3Rush TDs
Per game
42.1Rush yards
9Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
547.1Rush yards
120Carries
3Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 505): needs 245/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 505): needs 495/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 505): needs 995/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 7/game over remaining 1.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 12/game over remaining 1.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 17/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Caden Durham's story is about how role and output meet each other. For LSU, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
111 82nd
YDS
505 78th
YPC
4.5 48th
TD
3 73rd
Receiving
REC
16 77th
YDS
91 66th
YPR
5.7 34th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 17-10@ Clemson | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 1 | 24 | |
| Wk 2 | W 23-7vs Louisiana Tech | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Wk 3 | W 20-10vs Florida | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 0 | 51 | Season-high 93 yds |
| Wk 4 | W 56-10vs SE Louisiana | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 7 | W 20-10vs South Carolina | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 8 | L 24-31@ Vanderbilt | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 | 51 | |
| Wk 9 | L 25-49vs Texas A&M | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 | 28 | |
| Wk 11 | L 9-20@ Alabama | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 12 | W 23-22vs Arkansas | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 1 | 27 | |
| Wk 13 | W 13-10vs Western Kentucky | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 14 | L 13-17@ Oklahoma | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Bowl | L 35-38@ Houston | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Total | 111 | 505 | 4.3 | 3 | 51 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024LSU9-4HC: Brian Kelly · Pass-leaning, fast tempo
2025LSU7-6HC: Brian Kelly · Balanced, slow tempo
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 505 | #160/735 | 78th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 3 | #204/739 | 73rd pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.5 | #383/735 | 48th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 16 | #127/552 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 91 | #185/548 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.12 | #173/362 | 52nd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 105 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 16.1% | #152/738 | 80th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 111 | #135/739 | 82nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 51 | #155/733 | 79th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 22 | #198/540 | 64th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 5.7 | #360/548 | 34th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 33.3% | #96/738 | 87th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 19.4% | #142/738 | 81st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 18.3% | #169/738 | 77th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 15.3% | #67/738 | 91st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 14.4% | #194/738 | 74th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 10.2% | #193/738 | 74th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.5% | #267/738 | 64th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 46.6 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 35.8 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 52.0 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Losses5g | 28.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 47.2 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 37.0 | 5.3 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
49Mid-pack
Production sits in the middle of the position cohort across the board.
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.12Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Caden DurhamLSUTae MeadowsTroy· 81% simJevon JacksonUAB· 77% simKamari MoultonIowa· 77% sim
Receptions
Carries
Long run
Rush yards
Rec yards
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Omiri Wiggins’s 2025 season.
Omiri Wiggins
78%match
#2
Pat Garwo III
76%
#3
James Peoples
76%
#4
Mario Anderson
76%
#5
Trevion Cooley
75%
Matches Omiri on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Receiving share
Rush TD rate
Differs from Omiri on
Class year (lower)
Height (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Cooper Wallace’s path through The Citadel.
Cooper Wallace
97%match
#2
Julius Loughridge
95%
#3
Corey Taylor II
95%
#4
CJ Marable
92%
#5
Jamious Griffin
91%
Matches Cooper on
Yards per carry
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to James Peoples's sophomore season at Ohio State (2025).
James Peoples
80%match
#2
Omiri Wiggins
80%
#3
Kirby Vorhees
79%
#4
King Doerue
74%
#5
Brandon Campbell
74%
Matches James on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Receiving share
Height
Differs from James on
Rush TD rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brian Kelly
Pass share
55.0%
443 pass / 363 run
Plays / game
62.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.8%
365 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Brian Kelly
LSU
2025
Brian Kelly
LSU
Played his entire career under Brian Kelly.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownOklahoma City, OK
Height5'9"
Weight205 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey29
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamLSU
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | LSU | RB2 | #47 | #46 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.