LSU 38-17 Auburn (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: LSU · Auburn

No. 18 LSU6-238

Auburn4-317Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala. · Crowd 88,043

No. 18 LSU beat Auburn 38-17.

We had LSU favored. It won.

Next: LSU vs Alabama, Sat Nov 7 · LSU favored by 3.5

Next: Auburn at Ole Miss, Sat Oct 31 · 12:45 PM ET · Auburn underdog by 13.5

Lmfao 70 yard touchdown after the "crowd now back in it" comment

An LSU fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave LSU an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (LSU was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Favored the whole way: LSU never fell below 59%.

Auburn never had better than a 41% chance.

FinalLSU 38-17 AuburnLSU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

I wish Leavitt would make up his mind too lmao

Q2 11:27 · An LSU fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 6:50Fans argue a no-call on Brown's pass to Nimrod was pass interferenceHe pushed nimrod out of bounds before ever turning aroundr/CFB game threadThat would have been called PI if it was Georgia last weekr/CFB game thread
Q2 14:28Officials overturn interception call on Leavitt pass, sparking fan outrageTHERE'S the Leavitt we all rememberr/CFB game thread
Q2 11:27Leavitt passes to Green for a touchdown as fans argue the callI wish they'd make up their mind and decide if Leavitt is a "poor decision-maker" or a "poised veteran".r/CFB game thread
Q2 6:13Fans argue over Brown's short run and LSU's poor third-down defenseBrown I’m sorry for calling you a dumbass as soon as that play startedr/CFB game threadI’m gonna keep saying Brown needs to stop running, so he can make runs like thatr/CFB game thread
Q2 4:29Leavitt throws 70-yard touchdown to Harris as Auburn safety is mocked for being slowHawaii thank you for Jackson Harrisr/CFB game threadLmfao 70 yard touchdown after the "crowd now back in it" commentr/CFB game thread

LSU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (LSU -7), at 63% for LSU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Auburn or LSU flair (906 and 868); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show LSU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

LSU scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Auburn on 3 of its 11.

LSU’s drives are teal, Auburn’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Auburn’s side

Auburn’s best moment: Brown 13-yd pass to Mabson (Q1 8:54). It lifted Auburn’s win chance by 10 points.

How Auburn fans took it: “GG Tiger breauxs War Eagle anyways” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Busy

The second quarter is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

LSU fans

harris“Harris has rapidly improved the last few weeks. He’s definitely the number 1 receiver now”

Auburn fans

line“Can have all the talent in the world and it won’t mean anything until we have an o-line”

talent“Can have all the talent in the world and it won’t mean anything until we have an o-line”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, every, getting.

What it cost

LSU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 39% to 46%.

Make the playoff

LSU · won39% → ▲46%

Auburn · lost4% → ▼2%

Win the conference

LSU · won6% → ▲8%

Auburn · lost0% → 0%

Win the title

LSU · won4% → ▲5%

Auburn · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

LSU plays vs Alabama on Sat Nov 7 with a 46% chance to make the playoff. Auburn plays at Ole Miss on Sat Oct 31 with a 2% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

LSU 38, Auburn 17

LSU covered −7 by 14. The total, 55, went over 51.5.

Team totals	LSU	Auburn
Total yards	552	271
Passing	32 of 46, 387 yds	20 of 30, 204 yds
Rushing	34 for 165 yds	35 for 67 yds
First downs	29	16
Third down	5 of 13	5 of 16
Fourth down	3 of 4	3 of 3
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	7 for 50 yds	6 for 48 yds
Time of possession	33:41	26:19

LSU leaders

Passing Sam Leavitt 32 of 45, 387 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Dilin Jones 21 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Sam Leavitt 8 for 54 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jackson Harris 9 for 178 yds, 2 TD; Trey'Dez Green 5 for 50 yds, 1 TD

Auburn leaders

Passing Byrum Brown 15 of 24, 160 yds
Rushing Byrum Brown 19 for 21 yds, 1 TD; Tristan Ti'a 4 for 18 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Keshaun Singleton 4 for 64 yds; DeShawn Spencer 4 for 41 yds

No rain through the game

65° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Game-day temperatures at Jordan-Hare Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:22 left11:09 a.m.

LSU 0, Auburn 0 · Auburn 37% to win

no rain · 66°

Brown 1-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Auburn-opelika Apt airport, 3.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

LSU · 5-2

Rated 31st in our preseason ratings, 8th now, up 23 spots.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 31-0 vs Mississippi StateTop 25 No. 79 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 34-35 @ KentuckyTop 25 No. 44 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 63-14 vs McNeese No. 212 of 668 teams

won by 49 as a 53.5-point favorite

W 35-6 vs Texas A&MTop 25 No. 15 of 668 teams

won by 29 as an 8.5-point favorite

L 24-32 @ Ole MissTop 25 No. 14 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 3-point favorite

W 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech No. 83 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 51-10 vs ClemsonTop 25 No. 12 of 668 teams

won by 41 as a 10-point favorite

Last three games

Auburn · 4-2

Rated 71st in our preseason ratings, 44th now, up 27 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Georgia as a 19.5-point underdog.

W 27-24 @ GeorgiaTop 25 No. 4 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 19.5-point underdog

L 14-24 @ TennesseeTop 25 No. 26 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 6-point underdog

W 21-15 vs Vanderbilt No. 46 of 668 teams

won by 6 as a 10-point favorite

L 39-44 vs FloridaTop 25 No. 17 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 43-8 vs Southern Miss No. 59 of 668 teams

won by 35 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 17-16 vs Baylor No. 36 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

Week by week

Auburn

Wk 2Wvs Southern Miss43-8
Wk 3Lvs Florida39-44
Wk 4Wvs Vanderbilt21-15
Wk 5Lat Tennessee14-24
Wk 7Wat Georgia27-24

LSU

Wk 3Lat Ole Miss24-32
Wk 4Wvs Texas A&M35-6
Wk 5Wvs McNeese63-14
Wk 6Lat Kentucky34-35
Wk 7Wvs Mississippi State31-0

Power rating by week

LSU is rated 7.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Auburn’s passing EPA against LSU, 80 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Auburn’s passing EPA against LSU’s defense
Auburn offense, 20th percentile · LSU defense, 100th
Auburn’s success rate against LSU’s defense
Auburn offense, 27th percentile · LSU defense, 96th
LSU’s explosive plays against Auburn’s defense
LSU offense, 36th percentile · Auburn defense, 69th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

LSUAuburn

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

LSU leads the series 33-23-1

57 meetings since 1902 · LSU has won the last 2

2023LSU 48-18
2022LSU 21-17
2021Auburn 24-19
2020Auburn 48-11
2019LSU 23-20

Each line is Auburn’s chance to win through that meeting. Auburn is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Auburn fans are in a better mood than LSU fans (45th percentile vs 30th among FBS fanbases), even with LSU favored.

LSU favored by 7 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

LSU by 7, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 395 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward LSU.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Auburn is worth +5.3 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 70th percentile.

55% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (29-24 home, 14-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 368 miles to get here.

The story going in

Xavier Atkins dismissed from AuburnOct 20, 2026

Last meeting in our History pages

LSU 23, Auburn 20Oct 26, 2019

Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2017.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Auburn9th2-2
LSU10th2-2

Full SEC standings

No. 18 LSU beats Auburn 38-17