Florida at Auburn
Florida (2‑0) travels to Auburn (2‑0), with Florida favored by 2.5. The model gives Florida a 65% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Florida · 2-0
Picked #22 in the preseason · now #21 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 52–3 vs Campbell #200 of 669
won by 49 as a 51.5-point favorite
W 66–21 vs Florida Atlantic #106 of 669
won by 45 as a 25.5-point favorite
Last two games
Auburn · 2-0
Picked #71 in the preseason · now #63 — about right.
Two straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
W 43–8 vs Southern Miss #59 of 669
won by 35 as a 32.5-point favorite
W 17–16 vs Baylor #35 of 669
won by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
The series
Auburn leads the series 44-39-2
85 meetings since 1904 · Florida won the last meeting
- 2019Florida 24–13
- 2011Auburn 17–6
- 2007Auburn 20–17
- 2006Auburn 27–17
- 2002Florida 30–23
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Florida
The chip · vs the national mediaThe same analysts who buried the Sumrall hire as 'another Group-of-Five retread from Louisiana, Napier 2.0' will be the first to call it a steal if it works. Gainesville is keeping the receipts.
What this game touches
The long fall from the Spurrier–Meyer summit. Three titles and three Heismans by 2008, then fifteen years of coaching misfires (Muschamp, McElwain, the Mullen collapse, Napier) — bottoming out at 4-8 in 2025 with Napier fired mid-October.
Auburn
The chip · vs big brotherAuburn fans know exactly what the ledger says across the state and refuse to wear the role it implies; the chip is that the same recruiting ground and the same league bid go to two programs, and one of them is told to be grateful for the scraps. War Eagle is said with an edge for a reason.
What this game touches
The Freeze firing and the reset under it. Hugh Freeze was let go in November 2025 at 15-19 — fired mid-season after a 4-5 start and an SEC record that never matched the recruiting — the third straight regime to leave Auburn searching, and proof the resources still aren't translating into Saturdays.
Best players
Florida
- Jadan Baugh (RB) · 296 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 62nd (+15000)
- Myles Graham (LB) · 17 tackles
- Vernell Brown III (WR) · 160 receiving yards
Auburn
- Elijah Melendez (LB) · 18 tackles
- Eric Winters (S) · 14 tackles
- Byrum Brown (QB) · 482 passing yards — Heisman odds: 21st (+5000)
The line, and the room
Florida fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (66th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home +2.5 · O/U 53
Conditions
92°F · 4 mph wind
Auburn is worth +5.7 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 76th percentile.
56% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (28–22 home, 13–23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.1 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 276 miles to get here.
Recent games
Auburn
- Wk 1Wvs Baylor17-16
- Wk 2Wvs Southern Miss43-8
Florida
- Wk 1Wvs Florida Atlantic66-21
- Wk 2Wvs Campbell52-3
Trajectory
The market
Book hold: 4.0%
Conference standings
- Auburn#130-0
- Florida#90-0