Florida 44-39 Auburn (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Florida · Auburn

Florida3-044

Auburn2-139Final

Sat, Sep 19 · Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala. · Crowd 88,043

Florida beat Auburn 44-39.

We had Florida favored. It won.

Next: Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28, Sat Sep 26

Next: Auburn beat Vanderbilt 21-15, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

TOUCHDOWN GATORS I have to delay these comments for the inevitable flags in this game

Q4 12:47 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Clark 20-yd TD run, Florida leads 14-3 (Q2, 14:49). Florida went from 65% to 86% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

The edge changed hands 4 times before Florida won it.

The edge changed hands 4 times and Auburn came out on the wrong end.

FinalFlorida 44-39 AuburnFlorida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 14:49Clark 20-yd TD run, Florida leads 14-3Florida 65% → 86% (+21)
2Q2 5:21Brown 4-yd TD pass to Singleton, ties it 17-17Florida 69% → 50% (−19)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 14:49Clark 20-yd TD run, Florida leads 14-3Auburn 35% → 14% (−21)
2Q2 5:21Brown 4-yd TD pass to Singleton, ties it 17-17Auburn 31% → 50% (+19)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:07Officials overturn a catch by Vernell Brown III on a pass from PhiloSurprised the refs didn't throw a flag on Florida for gaining yards there. Showing some real restraint right now.r/CFB game threadCall that one back you bumsr/CFB game thread
Q2 6:04Florida fans rage as officials gift Auburn a touchdown on a late hit penaltyNot gonna call the massive HOLD but of course get the personal foul flagr/CFB game thread
Q4 12:47Florida fans celebrate Baugh's touchdown and accept a flagQuoted at the top of the page.You know what, ill take it. You dont even have to show the penalty, I know you wont.r/CFB game thread

Florida’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Florida -2.5), at 51% for Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Auburn or Florida flair (1,147 and 3,166); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Florida’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Florida scored on 8 of its 11 drives; Auburn on 6 of its 11.

Florida’s drives are teal, Auburn’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Auburn’s side

Auburn’s best moment: Brown 4-yd TD pass to Singleton, ties it 17-17 (Q2 5:21). It lifted Auburn’s win chance by 19 points.

How Auburn fans took it: “Even though we lost, I'm excited to see these two teams play each other more often now.” r/CFB game thread

“Even a penalty on an extra kick? This is special”

A Florida fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Florida fans

baugh“I literally said to my friends "alright Jaden Baugh rip it for a touchdown" and he did, insane levels of dopamine achieved.”

refs“Both teams are honestly playing pretty evenly but dear God the refs are doing everything in their power to make this game insufferable”

call“Auburn hit Philo when both his feet were out of bounds with no call btw”

flags“TOUCHDOWN GATORS I have to delay these comments for the inevitable flags in this game”

Auburn fans

durkin“I think we can see why Sumrall didn't want to be stuck with Durkin when offered the job. Thanks Cohen.”

glad“10 penalties per quarter you say? Glad I have an entire bottle. Cheers, gentlemen!”

tackle“Well GG gators, much better prepared team today. Can’t tackle, catch, or run”

voodoo“I have officially made the switch from October fest to mango cart. Havent had to tap into the emergency reserve of voodoo ranger yet”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, back, don.

What it cost

Florida’s chance to make the playoff rose from 38% to 47%.

Make the playoff

Florida · won38% → ▲47%

Auburn · lost10% → ▼7%

Win the conference

Florida · won4% → ▲6%

Auburn · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Florida 44, Auburn 39

Florida covered −2.5 by 2.5. The total, 83, went over 53.5.

Team totals	Florida	Auburn
Total yards	495	373
Passing	16 of 23, 252 yds	20 of 35, 271 yds
Rushing	53 for 243 yds	31 for 102 yds
First downs	24	22
Third down	7 of 15	6 of 12
Fourth down	3 of 3	1 of 2
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	16 for 138 yds	6 for 65 yds
Time of possession	39:16	20:44

Florida leaders

Passing Aaron Philo 15 of 22, 204 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jadan Baugh 26 for 162 yds, 3 TD; Duke Clark 7 for 50 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Vernell Brown III 5 for 86 yds; Dallas Wilson 4 for 74 yds, 1 TD

Auburn leaders

Passing Byrum Brown 20 of 35, 271 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Byrum Brown 18 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Jeremiah Cobb 9 for 32 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Keshaun Singleton 7 for 99 yds, 1 TD; Chas Nimrod 6 for 95 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Jordan-Hare Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 14:49 left6:49 p.m.

Florida 14, Auburn 3 · Auburn 14% to win

no rain

Clark 20-yd TD run, Florida leads 14-3

Measured at Auburn-opelika Apt airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Florida · 2-0

Rated 22nd in our preseason ratings, 21st now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 52-3 vs Campbell #196 of 668

won by 49 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 66-21 vs Florida Atlantic #106 of 668

won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite

Last two games

Auburn · 2-0

Rated 71st in our preseason ratings, 62nd now.

Two straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 43-8 vs Southern Miss #59 of 668

won by 35 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 17-16 vs Baylor #36 of 668

won by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

Week by week

Auburn

Wk 1Wvs Baylor17-16
Wk 2Wvs Southern Miss43-8

Florida

Wk 1Wvs Florida Atlantic66-21
Wk 2Wvs Campbell52-3

Power rating by week

Florida is rated 5.9 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Florida’s explosive plays against Auburn, 27 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Florida’s explosive plays against Auburn’s defense
Florida offense, 49th percentile · Auburn defense, 76th
Florida’s success rate against Auburn’s defense
Florida offense, 69th percentile · Auburn defense, 47th
Florida’s passing EPA against Auburn’s defense
Florida offense, 84th percentile · Auburn defense, 66th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

FloridaAuburn

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Auburn leads the series 44-39-2

85 meetings since 1904 · Florida won the last meeting

2019Florida 24-13
2011Auburn 17-6
2007Auburn 20-17
2006Auburn 27-17
2002Florida 30-23

Each line is Auburn’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Florida fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (51st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Florida favored by 2.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Florida by 2.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Florida.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Auburn is worth +5.6 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 75th percentile.

56% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (29-23 home, 14-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 276 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Florida 24, Auburn 13Oct 5, 2019

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Auburn12th0-0
Florida10th0-0

Full SEC standings

Florida beats Auburn 44-39