No. 11 LSU routs No. 23 Clemson 51-10

Clemson0-110
No. 11 LSU1-051Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Tiger Stadium (LA), Baton Rouge, La. · Crowd 102,321ABC

No. 11 LSU routed No. 23 Clemson 51-10.

We had Clemson favored. LSU won.

Top comment in the game thread

It's okay you guys, Leavitt just didn't want to complete 5 passes this early in the game out of respect for Jayden Daniels.

Q1 14:30 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave LSU a 41% chance, and the closing betting line (LSU was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.

Pick-sixLSU · Q1 2:07
FinalLSU 51-10 ClemsonLSU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4LSUWon51-10ScoresPick-sixLSUClemsonLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 3 comments a minuteLSU fans: 5 comments a minuteLSU fans: 5 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 3 comments a minuteLSU fans: 14 comments a minuteLSU fans: 16 comments a minuteLSU fans: 16 comments a minuteLSU fans: 14 comments a minuteLSU fans: 16 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 7 comments a minuteLSU fans: 3 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 7 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 15 comments a minuteLSU fans: 16 comments a minuteLSU fans: 3 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 7 comments a minuteLSU fans: 5 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 13 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 14 comments a minuteLSU fans: 13 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 9 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 13 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 15 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 15 comments a minuteLSU fans: 14 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 9 comments a minuteClemson fans: 1 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 9 comments a minuteClemson fans: 13 comments a minuteClemson fans: 15 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 9 comments a minuteClemson fans: 9 comments a minuteClemson fans: 8 comments a minuteClemson fans: 17 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 8 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 8 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 1 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 1 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minute
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50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4LSULowest 0%Lost10-51ScoresPick-sixClemsonLSUClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 9 comments a minuteClemson fans: 1 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 9 comments a minuteClemson fans: 13 comments a minuteClemson fans: 15 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 9 comments a minuteClemson fans: 9 comments a minuteClemson fans: 8 comments a minuteClemson fans: 17 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 8 comments a minuteClemson fans: 10 comments a minuteClemson fans: 11 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 8 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 7 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 6 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 3 comments a minuteClemson fans: 1 comments a minuteClemson fans: 4 comments a minuteClemson fans: 5 comments a minuteClemson fans: 1 comments a minuteClemson fans: 2 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 3 comments a minuteLSU fans: 5 comments a minuteLSU fans: 5 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 4 comments a minuteLSU fans: 3 comments a minuteLSU fans: 14 comments a minuteLSU fans: 16 comments a minuteLSU fans: 16 comments a minuteLSU fans: 14 comments a minuteLSU fans: 16 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 7 comments a minuteLSU fans: 3 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 7 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 15 comments a minuteLSU fans: 16 comments a minuteLSU fans: 3 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 7 comments a minuteLSU fans: 5 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 13 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 14 comments a minuteLSU fans: 13 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 10 comments a minuteLSU fans: 6 comments a minuteLSU fans: 9 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 8 comments a minuteLSU fans: 13 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 15 comments a minuteLSU fans: 11 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 15 comments a minuteLSU fans: 14 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minuteLSU fans: 12 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 14:30Leavitt throws early interception, sparking chaos and hatewatching in the threadQuoted at the top of the page.
  2. Q1 2:07Ross intercepts Vizzina for a touchdown as LSU fans celebrate the pick-sixOoooh this may get uglyr/CFB game thread
LSU’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (LSU -10), at 83% for LSU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a LSU or Clemson flair (1,784 and 1,193); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Kickoff came 2 hours 10 minutes late. Thunder was reported at Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport (8.9 miles away) from 5:40 p.m. to 6:03 p.m., around the delay.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show LSU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 14:30Leavitt intercepted by Hampton at the LSU 34Q1, 14:30 · LSU 0, Clemson 0▼9%LSU’s chance to win, 83% to 74%▼9%LSU’s chance to win, 83% to 74%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 2:07Vizzina intercepted by Ross at the Clemson 30 and returned for a TDLSU leads 17-3Q1, 2:07 · LSU 17, Clemson 3▲5%LSU’s chance to win, 90% to 95%▲5%LSU’s chance to win, 90% to 95%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 1:10Leavitt 13-yd TD runLSU leads 31-3Q2, 1:10 · LSU 31, Clemson 331-3score after the play31-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 0:35Reynolds sacked for a 6-yd lossQ2, 0:35 · LSU 31, Clemson 331-3score after the play31-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 14:21Reynolds sacked for a 11-yd lossQ3, 14:21 · LSU 31, Clemson 331-3score after the play31-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q3, 8:21Leavitt 32-yd TD pass to WatkinsLSU leads 38-3Q3, 8:21 · LSU 38, Clemson 338-3score after the play38-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q3, 3:24Jones 12-yd TD runLSU leads 44-3Q3, 3:24 · LSU 44, Clemson 344-3score after the play44-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q4, 6:43Clark 30-yd TD pass to Wright; unsportsmanlike conduct on LSULSU leads 51-3Q4, 6:43 · LSU 51, Clemson 351-3score after the play51-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q4, 3:13Eziomume 11-yd TD runcuts it to 51-10Q4, 3:13 · LSU 51, Clemson 1051-10score after the play51-10score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

LSU scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Clemson on 2 of its 13.

LSU’s drives are teal, Clemson’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1LSU: Interception, from 75 yards out to 67InterceptionClemson: Field goal, from 33 yards out to 31Field goalLSU: Field goal, from 90 yards out to 31Field goalClemson: Punt, from 80 yards out to 51PuntLSU: Touchdown, from 89 yards out to 0TouchdownClemson: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 79 yards out to 75Interception TDClemson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntQ2LSU: Missed field goal, from 66 yards out to 30Missed FGClemson: Punt, from 70 yards out to 67PuntLSU: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownClemson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntLSU: Punt, from 66 yards out to 39PuntClemson: Punt, from 91 yards out to 88PuntLSU: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownClemson: End of half, from 75 yards out to 74End of halfQ3Clemson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntLSU: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownClemson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 65PuntLSU: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownClemson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 59PuntLSU: Punt, from 84 yards out to 39PuntQ4Clemson: Punt, from 88 yards out to 87PuntLSU: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownClemson: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownLSU: End of game, from 75 yards out to 24End of game
“On the second play of the game!”
A Clemson fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The jump was busy; the crowd was loud.

FirstSecondThirdFourthLSU fansClemson fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

LSU fans

lane“Bro lane with the “imagine if we had pro players” half time interview *insane*”

Clemson fans

dabo“Thank god, it's over. Please let the Dabo era be over after tonight, this was brutal to watch.”

least“Put Tate in! Vizzina is not playing well but his O line is playing like a wet blanket, we need a QB who can at least somewhat scramble out.”

look“Look, we may not be able to run the ball, throw the ball, stop the run, or stop the pass but”

former“Dabo started hiring all of his former players as coaches instead of the likes of Tony Elliott, Brent Venables and Jeff Scott. They can’t coach.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: getting, coach, start, put.

What it cost

Clemson’s chance to make the playoff fell from 13% to 9%.

Make the playoff

Clemson · lost13% → ▼9%13%▼ 9%
LSU · won19% → ▲23%19%▲ 23%

Win the conference

Clemson · lost8% → ▼7%8%▼ 7%
LSU · won2% → 2%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

LSU 51, Clemson 10

LSU covered −10 by 31. The total, 61, went over 48.5.

ClemsonLSUTotal yardsClemson 145LSU 644145644Passing yardsClemson 105LSU 335105335Rushing yardsClemson 40LSU 30940309First downsClemson 8LSU 37837TurnoversClemson 1LSU 111Time of possessionClemson 23:51LSU 36:0923:5136:09
Team totalsClemsonLSU
Total yards145644
Passing14 of 22, 105 yds22 of 36, 335 yds
Rushing26 for 40 yds58 for 309 yds
First downs837
Third down1 of 1311 of 16
Fourth down0 of 01 of 1
Turnovers11
Penalties5 for 41 yds6 for 75 yds
Time of possession23:5136:09

Clemson leaders

  • Passing Christopher Vizzina 10 of 16, 83 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jarvis Green 4 for 21 yds; Gideon Davidson 7 for 20 yds
  • Receiving T.J. Moore 4 for 31 yds; Bryant Wesco Jr. 2 for 29 yds

LSU leaders

  • Passing Sam Leavitt 16 of 28, 230 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Sam Leavitt 12 for 113 yds, 2 TD; Dilin Jones 23 for 113 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Winston Watkins 7 for 110 yds, 1 TD; Phillip Wright III 3 for 70 yds, 1 TD

Kickoff came 2 hours 10 minutes late

76° at kickoff · no rain during play; another 0.08 in fell before the late kickoff · wind 3 mph from the northeast, gusts to 8

Thunder was reported at Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport (8.9 miles away) from 5:40 p.m. to 6:03 p.m., around the delay.

September game-day temperatures at Tiger Stadium (LA)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4LSU favoredClemson favored100%Win chanceLSURaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphThunder reported
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4LSU favoredClemson favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Thunder reported

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:49 left8:42 p.m.
Clemson 0, LSU 0 · LSU 83% to win
no rain · wind 1 mph from the north-northwest · 76°
Leavitt 8-yd pass to Wilson
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport, 8.9 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Clemson · 7-6

Rated 11th in our preseason ratings.

L 10-22 vs Penn StateTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 12 as a 2.5-point favorite

Clemson lost 10-22 vs Penn State. Chance to win started at 64%, low 2%, high 65%.

W 28-14 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #31 of 667

won by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

Clemson won 28-14 at South Carolina. Chance to win started at 43%, low 30%, high better than 99%.

W 45-10 vs Furman #217 of 667

won by 35 as a 43.5-point favorite

Clemson won 45-10 vs Furman. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 20-19 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #34 of 667

won by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

Clemson won 20-19 at Louisville. Chance to win started at 38%, low 14%, high 90%.

W 24-10 vs Florida StateTop 25 #29 of 667

won by 14 as a 1.5-point favorite

Clemson won 24-10 vs Florida State. Chance to win started at 65%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

L 45-46 vs Duke #53 of 667

lost by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

Clemson lost 45-46 vs Duke. Chance to win started at 71%, low under 1%, high 96%.

L 24-35 vs SMUTop 25 #21 of 667

lost by 11 as a 5.5-point favorite

Clemson lost 24-35 vs SMU. Chance to win started at 68%, low under 1%, high 75%.

W 41-10 @ Boston College #99 of 667

won by 31 as a 13.5-point favorite

Clemson won 41-10 at Boston College. Chance to win started at 79%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

W 38-10 @ North Carolina #86 of 667

won by 28 as a 15.5-point favorite

Clemson won 38-10 at North Carolina. Chance to win started at 92%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

L 21-34 vs Syracuse #50 of 667

lost by 13 as a 17.5-point favorite

Clemson lost 21-34 vs Syracuse. Chance to win started at 91%, low 2%, high 91%.

L 21-24 @ Georgia TechTop 25 #40 of 667

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Clemson lost 21-24 at Georgia Tech. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 61%.

W 27-16 vs Troy #80 of 667

won by 11 as a 29.5-point favorite

Clemson won 27-16 vs Troy. Chance to win started at 97%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

L 10-17 vs LSUTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

Clemson lost 10-17 vs LSU. Chance to win started at 66%, low 8%, high 89%.

Last three games · 2025 season

LSU · 7-6

Rated 31st in our preseason ratings.

L 35-38 @ HoustonTop 25 #61 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

LSU lost 35-38 vs Houston. Chance to win started at 64%, low under 1%, high 72%.

L 13-17 @ OklahomaTop 25 #13 of 667

lost by 4 as an 11.5-point underdog

LSU lost 13-17 at Oklahoma. Chance to win started at 17%, low under 1%, high 69%.

W 13-10 vs Western Kentucky #82 of 667

won by 3 as a 25.5-point favorite

LSU won 13-10 vs Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 96%, low 80%, high better than 99%.

W 23-22 vs Arkansas #32 of 667

won by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

LSU won 23-22 vs Arkansas. Chance to win started at 69%, low 22%, high 90%.

L 9-20 @ AlabamaTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 11 as a 10.5-point underdog

LSU lost 9-20 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 25-49 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 24 as a 1.5-point underdog

LSU lost 25-49 vs Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 55%, low under 1%, high 71%.

L 24-31 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

LSU lost 24-31 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 50%.

W 20-10 vs South CarolinaTop 25 #24 of 667

won by 10 as an 8.5-point favorite

LSU won 20-10 vs South Carolina. Chance to win started at 75%, low 63%, high better than 99%.

L 19-24 @ Ole MissTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 5 as a 3.5-point underdog

LSU lost 19-24 at Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 32%, low 1%, high 62%.

W 56-10 vs SE Louisiana #150 of 667

won by 46 as a 48.5-point favorite

LSU won 56-10 vs SE Louisiana. Never in doubt.

W 20-10 vs FloridaTop 25 #14 of 667

won by 10 as a 5.5-point favorite

LSU won 20-10 vs Florida. Chance to win started at 73%, low 50%, high 99%.

W 23-7 vs Louisiana Tech #147 of 667

won by 16 as a 36.5-point favorite

LSU won 23-7 vs Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 17-10 @ ClemsonTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

LSU won 17-10 at Clemson. Chance to win started at 34%, low 11%, high 92%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Clemson’s passing EPA against LSU, 94 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Clemson’s EPA/play against LSU’s defense

    91 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Clemson offense, 8th percentile · LSU defense, 99th

  2. Clemson’s passing EPA against LSU’s defense

    94 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Clemson offense, 5th percentile · LSU defense, 99th

  3. Clemson’s explosive plays against LSU’s defense

    66 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Clemson offense, 17th percentile · LSU defense, 83rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ClemsonLSU
EPA/play, offense
Clemson · 8LSU · 82
EPA/play, defense
Clemson · 80LSU · 99
Success rate, offense
Clemson · 8LSU · 95
Success rate, defense
Clemson · 63LSU · 97
Explosive-play rate, offense
Clemson · 17LSU · 34
Explosive-play rate, defense
Clemson · 78LSU · 83
Rush EPA, offense
Clemson · 34LSU · 50
Rush EPA, defense
Clemson · 43LSU · 76
Pass EPA, offense
Clemson · 5LSU · 88
Pass EPA, defense
Clemson · 91LSU · 99

The series

LSU leads the series 4-1

5 meetings since 1958 · LSU has won the last 2

  • 2025LSU 17-10LSU won 17-10 at Clemson. Chance to win started at 34%, low 11%, high 92%.
  • 2019 · neutral siteLSU 42-25LSU won 42-25 vs Clemson. Chance to win started at 64%, low 29%, high better than 99%.The 2019 game and what was said
  • 2012 · neutral siteClemson 25-24
  • 1996 · neutral siteLSU 10-7
  • 1958 · neutral siteLSU 7-0

Each line is LSU’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Clemson fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (33rd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

  • Model · 41%
  • Line · 79%
  • LSU fans · 1st
  • Clemson fans · 33rd

LSU favored by 10 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

LSU by 10, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Clemson.

opened −11.5now −10

Spread: −11.5 → −10

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 81° at kickoff.

Clemson at LSU · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge

  • 81°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 84weather score, Mixed
  • 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Tiger Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 96, against 84 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 50, Rough
  • noon: 47, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 46, Harsh
  • 3:15 pm: 50, Rough
  • 4 pm: 54, Rough
  • 6 pm: 84, Mixed (this game)
  • 7 pm: 96, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

LSU is worth +7.1 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 92nd percentile.

82% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (42-9 home, 19-19 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 568 miles to get here.

The story going in

Last meeting in our History pages

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2020.

Where next