The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Syracuse 45%
Win out <1% · expect 0.9 of 4 more wins
Boston College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Florida State 38%, Notre Dame 1%, Syracuse 45%, Miami 3%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 14% to 21%, peaking at 38% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 9th in the ACC · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Mason McKenzie 1,450 · Rushing Mason McKenzie 638 · Receiving Javarius Green 308 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Boston College:athletics siteACCX@bceaglesYouTubeInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #130 | #109 | +7✗ −12 | @Cincinnati | L 15-34 134 Loud | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass McKenzie 223 · Rush McKenzie 78 · Rec Green 74 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | #131 | #75 | −3✓ +4 | Rutgers | W 28-21 129 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass McKenzie 252 · Rush McKenzie 94 · Rec Pough 106 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #136 | #208 | −37.5✗ −31.5 | Maine | W 22-16 60 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass McKenzie 173 · Rush Dickens 102 · Rec Montague Jr. 72 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #146 | #40 | +14.5✓ +7.5 | Virginia Tech | L 14-21 138 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass McKenzie 111 · Rush McKenzie 138 · Rec Skeete 37 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #138 | #18 | +21.5✓ +12.5 | @SMU | L 16-25 127 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass McKenzie 208 · Rush McKenzie 74 · Rec Dickens 45 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #123 | #40 | +6.5✓ +12.5 | Pittsburgh | W 27-21 132 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass McKenzie 295 · Rush Dickens 57 · Rec Wright 122 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #116 | #89 | +6.5✓ +28.5 | @Georgia Tech | W 49-27 125 | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass McKenzie 101 · Rush McKenzie 170 · Rec Green 57 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #91 | #52 | +7✗ −38 | @Duke | L 2-47 126 Roaring | 4-4 | 2-3 | Pass McKenzie 87 · Rush MacCormack III 24 · Rec Wade 36 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #107 | #68 | +6.5 | Florida State | 12 pm ET · ACC Network38% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #111 | #1 | @Notre Dame | 3:30 pm ET · NBC1% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Syracuse | time TBA45% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Miami | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Boston College, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Boston College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Duke | L 2-47 | 213 | 2 | 0:15 | -0.547 | 36.1% | 0.60 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Georgia Tech | W 49-27 | 500 | 0 | 33:53 | +0.411 | 55.2% | 1.09 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Pittsburgh | W 27-21 | 398 | 2 | 31:38 | +0.058 | 38.2% | 1.62 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | @SMU | L 16-25 | 322 | 1 | 33:05 | +0.131 | 40.0% | 1.60 | |
| Sep 26 | Virginia Tech | L 14-21 | 261 | 0 | 31:20 | -0.011 | 35.9% | 1.12 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | Maine | W 22-16 | 359 | 2 | 29:51 | -0.058 | 44.3% | 0.97 | One-score win |
| Sep 11 | Rutgers | W 28-21 | 402 | 3 | 25:28 | -0.021 | 35.9% | 1.24 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | @Cincinnati | L 15-34 | 388 | 2 | 31:19 | +0.115 | 39.7% | 1.32 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 355 | 1.5 | +0.010 | 40.7% | 1.20 | ||||
Boston College's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
It’s hard when you start out the drive like that. There was a lot of [penalties on] the first play of the drives
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Bill O'Brien's third season at Boston College follows a 2-10 losing record, with the program's identity rooted in its 1984 Heisman-winning legacy and academic-private tradition.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Boston College · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 33%; 5 wins 48%; 6 wins 18%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 46 of 1268 board posts (4%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Boston College is the Power-conference program that holds onto a frozen-rope miracle from 1984 because the four decades since haven't given Chestnut Hill anything bigger to point to.
Eagles fans hear the same shrug every fall, that Northeast football doesn't travel, that the league forgets BC is in it, and they answer with a Heisman, a Hail Mary, and a checkbook the school…
Boston College · Game-day weather
Typical at Alumni Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 89 to 92
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Boston College is the ACC academic-private program whose 1984 Doug Flutie Hail Mary + 1984 Heisman + Alumni Stadium tradition define what Catholic-Northeast-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
59th percentile among FBS programs
More
3Bill O'Brien's third season at Boston College follows a 2-10 losing record, with the fanbase cautiously building confidence amid a program defined by its historic Flutie legacy and academic identity.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Boston College · 2026