The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Bill O'Brien

Followed Jeff Hafley. Bill O'Brien held Boston College at Regional Program I for 3 seasons.

Peak, then fade

24–25

2012–now · 2 stints

Penn State Boston College

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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Penn State, 2 seasons

−1.0

Power Program I → Power Program II.

Boston College, 3 seasons (active)

+1.7

Regional Program I → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Boston College16.0pt#37 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–2 against his rivals.

Rivalry record

0–2

0.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

8–8

50.0% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–3

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Ohio State0–20%

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–3 0.0%

Power Program

5–7 41.7%

National Program

5–11 31.2%

Regional Program

9–3 75.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.13

#206 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.14

#245 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2024–now

Boston Collegecaretaker

Regional Program I → Regional Program I

Bill O'Brien held Boston College at Regional Program I for 3 seasons.

18th-best Boston College tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-11.7 pts

#156 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-19.7 pts

#174 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jeff Hafley (2020–2023).

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	7–6	2–10	0–0
Postseason	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#95	#59	#53
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	38.7	54.7	47.8
Coordinators
OC	Will Lawing	Will Lawing	—
DC	Tim Lewis	Tim Lewis	Ted Roof
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	32	47	58
Defense	50	13	47
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	23.2	51.9	33.3
Red-zone pass%	34.1	50.5	47.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	60.5	47.4	—

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-15

#57 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 242 lbs

across 42 of 51 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+5.5 lbs

#72 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#252 of 255 · less than most

Top states: GA (8), FL (6), TX (3), NC (3), VA (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

55.1

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.7

position-weighted

Net

-1.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Dylan Lonergan (QB) from Alabama

Biggest loss: Thomas Castellanos (QB) to Florida State

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Tim Lewis → Ted Roof · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

211 lbs

6′2″ avg · #419 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

206 lbs

5′10″ avg · #437 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

194 lbs

6′0″ avg · #335 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

244 lbs

6′3″ avg · #416 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

313 lbs

6′5″ avg · #243 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

274 lbs

6′3″ avg · #591 of 753 · less than most

Linebacker

228 lbs

6′1″ avg · #410 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

191 lbs

5′11″ avg · #329 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Tight end via the portal

67%

#23 of 188 stints

Buys Tackle via the portal

56%

#54 of 223 stints

Grows Cornerback from high school

78%

#205 of 236 stints

Postseason detail2024: Lost to Nebraska 15–20 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Elijah Jones (2024), Christian Mahogany (2024), Donovan Ezeiruaku (2025), Ozzy Trapilo (2025), Drew Kendall (2025), Jude Bowry (2026), Logan Taylor (2026), Lewis Bond (2026) + 1 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Donovan Ezeiruaku (2024)

9–16

2012–2013

Penn Stateinheritor

Power Program I → Power Program I

Bill O'Brien inherited a Power Program I Penn State and won with it.

5th-best Penn State tenure of 8 by the numbers.

Followed Joe Paterno (1966–2011) · succeeded by James Franklin (2014–2025).

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Interior line from high school

100%

#198 of 224 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

11 NFL Draft picks: Devon Still (2012), Johnnie Troutman (2012), Jack Crawford (2012), Nathan Stupar (2012), Jordan Hill (2013), Gerald Hodges (2013), Justin Brown (2013), Michael Mauti (2013) + 3 more

15–9