The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Curtis Johnson

Followed Bob Toledo. Curtis Johnson held Tulane at Regional Program V for 4 seasons.

15–34
2012–2015 · 1 stint
Tulane
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerTULANERegional Programthe building-block levelTulane, 2012: 2-10, Regional Program VI2012Tulane, 2013: 7-6, Regional Program V2013Tulane, 2014: 3-9, Regional Program V2014Tulane, 2015: 3-9, Regional Program V2015+1.7One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Tulane, 4 seasons
+1.7
Regional Program VI → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%Tulane2012–2015▼ 1.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

One-score games
4–8
33.3% · margin ≤8
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–2 0.0%
National Program
1–6 14.3%
Regional Program
8–15 34.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.31
#262 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.08
#213 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2012–2015
Tulanecaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program V
Curtis Johnson held Tulane at Regional Program V for 4 seasons.

22nd-best Tulane tenure of 23 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-35.9 pts
#206 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-17.6 pts
#168 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bob Toledo (2007–2011) · succeeded by Willie Fritz (2016–2023).

Season2012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record2–107–63–93–9
Postseason————
Recruiting rank——#90#91
Style — pass rate
Pass rate——51.450.4
Coordinators
OC——Eric PriceEric Price
DC——Jon Sumrall / Lionel WashingtonJason Rollins / Lionel Washington
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense——710
Defense——7529
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%——38.039.3
Red-zone pass%——46.734.9
4th-down go%opp. territory——35.919.0
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: co-Jon Sumrall / co-Lionel Washington → co-Jason Rollins / co-Lionel Washington · 2015
75th pct29th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Ryan Grant (2014), Lorenzo Doss (2015), Taurean Nixon (2015)

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