The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 4 Notre Dame 4%
Win out <1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Syracuse's chance to win each game left, from our model: Clemson 38%, NC State 35%, Boston College 55%, Notre Dame 4%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 50% to 46%, peaking at 50% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 12th in the ACC · 2-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Steven Angeli 1,186 · Rushing Tylik Hill 522 · Receiving Umari Hatcher 952 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #143 | #173 | −35.5✓ +27.5 | New Hampshire | W 66-3 77 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Angeli 263 · Rush Anderson Jr. 102 · Rec Hatcher 147 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #133 | #63 | −4✗ −7 | California | L 18-21 146 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Angeli 306 · Rush Hill 56 · Rec Ross-Simmons 105 |
| 3 | Sep 17 | #127 | #48 | +10.5✗ −3.5 | @Pittsburgh | L 13-27 130 | 1-2 | 0-2 | Pass Angeli 161 · Rush Miller 78 · Rec Hatcher 58 |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #127 | #103 | −6.5✗ −5.5 | @UConn | W 42-41 159 | 2-2 | 0-2 | Pass Odom 335 · Rush Hill 140 · Rec Hatcher 152 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #118 | #53 | +14✓ +11 | @Virginia | L 25-28 137 | 2-3 | 0-3 | Pass Nelson 217 · Rush Hill 118 · Rec Hatcher 126 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #105 | #36 | +14.5✓ +6.5 | Louisville | L 26-34 144 | 2-4 | 0-4 | Pass Nelson 315 · Rush Miller 123 · Rec Hatcher 224 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #112 | #61 | +7.5✓ +8.5 | @North Carolina | W 31-30 152 Firestorm | 3-4 | 1-4 | Pass Angeli 256 · Rush Miller 125 · Rec Hatcher 103 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #107 | #27 | +8.5✓ +11.5 | SMUTop 25 win | W 30-27 139 Firestorm | 4-4 | 2-4 | Pass Angeli 200 · Rush Miller 56 · Rec Hatcher 65 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #97 | #43 | +2.5 | Clemson | 12 pm ET · ESPN238% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #101 | #64 | @NC State | time TBA · ACC Network35% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Boston College | time TBA55% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Notre Dame | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Syracuse, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Syracuse: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | SMU | W 30-27 | 338 | 0 | 29:34 | +0.157 | 43.1% | 0.99 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 24 | @North Carolina | W 31-30 | 455 | 0 | 31:25 | +0.098 | 43.7% | 1.21 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | Louisville | L 26-34 | 462 | 3 | 32:24 | -0.114 | 42.5% | 1.07 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @Virginia | L 25-28 | 430 | 0 | 35:07 | +0.107 | 38.6% | 1.45 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | @UConn | W 42-41 | 509 | 2 | 35:27 | +0.204 | 50.0% | 1.25 | One-score win |
| Sep 17 | @Pittsburgh | L 13-27 | 347 | 2 | 33:12 | -0.080 | 35.6% | 1.24 | |
| Sep 12 | California | L 18-21 | 436 | 3 | 34:10 | -0.143 | 32.2% | 1.44 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | New Hampshire | W 66-3 | 513 | 0 | 32:34 | +0.351 | 52.6% | 1.31 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 436 | 1.2 | +0.073 | 42.3% | 1.25 | ||||
Syracuse's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and won the last two.
With everybody that’s on our team, to go out and step into this arena, whether it be the Dome or anywhere around the world, or anywhere across the country, to put our best forward
Range of outcomes · Syracuse · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 17%; 5 wins 42%; 6 wins 32%; 7 wins 8%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Syracuse owns the first Black Heisman, a 1959 national title, and the number 44 — and is betting that Fran Brown, the Camden kid who came home to coach, is the one who finally makes the Orange matter again, even after a torn Achilles cost them their breakout season.
Fans are tired of being the program everyone files under 'historic Northeast football' and forgets — the place pundits treat as a recruiting pit stop, a job Fran Brown is supposed to use as a…
Syracuse is the ACC program whose Carrier Dome dome-roof era + Donovan McNabb / Marvin Harrison Sr. canon + 2018 10-3 + 2024 10-3 under Fran Brown define what historic-northeast-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
73rd percentile among FBS programs
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Syracuse · 2026