California at Syracuse
Fan take
California fans
Syracuse fans
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
California · 7-6
Picked #67 in the preseason · now #59 — about right.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over SMU as a 13.5-point underdog.
L 31–35 @ Hawai'i #90 of 668
lost by 4 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 38–35 vs SMUTop 25 #10 of 668
won by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 10–31 @ Stanford #99 of 668
lost by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 29–26 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #33 of 668
won by 3 as a 18-point underdog
L 21–31 vs VirginiaTop 25 #43 of 668
lost by 10 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 34–42 @ Virginia Tech #72 of 668
lost by 8 as a 6-point underdog
W 21–18 vs North Carolina #138 of 668
won by 3 as a 8.5-point favorite
L 21–45 vs Duke #49 of 668
lost by 24 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 28–24 @ Boston College #69 of 668
won by 4 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 0–34 @ San Diego State #75 of 668
lost by 34 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 27–14 vs Minnesota #24 of 668
won by 13 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 35–3 vs Texas Southern #202 of 668
won by 32 as a 44.5-point favorite
W 34–15 @ Oregon State #87 of 668
won by 19 as a 3-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Syracuse · 3-9
Picked #144 in the preseason · now #142 — about right.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 12–34 vs Boston College #103 of 668
lost by 22 as a 3-point underdog
L 7–70 @ Notre DameTop 25 #2 of 668
lost by 63 as a 36.5-point underdog
L 10–38 @ MiamiTop 25 #10 of 668
lost by 28 as a 28.5-point underdog
L 10–27 vs North Carolina #107 of 668
lost by 17 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 16–41 @ Georgia TechTop 25 #30 of 668
lost by 25 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 13–30 vs PittsburghTop 25 #34 of 668
lost by 17 as a 8.5-point underdog
L 18–31 @ SMUTop 25 #23 of 668
lost by 13 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 3–38 vs Duke #54 of 668
lost by 35 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 34–21 @ ClemsonTop 25 #11 of 668
won by 13 as a 17.5-point underdog
W 66–24 vs Colgate #241 of 668
won by 42 as a 36.5-point favorite
W 27–20 vs UConn #69 of 668
won by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 26–45 @ TennesseeTop 25 #22 of 668
lost by 19 as a 13.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
California
- A win puts California a step closer to a 1% shot at the CFP field.
- California is the Pac-12-to-ACC transition program whose 'The Play' 1982 + Joe Roth tribute + Memorial Stadium fault-line setting define what Bay Area football looks like.
Syracuse
- A win would be one of Syracuse’s biggest of the season — a 83-spot gap in the power ratings.
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 1967 · California won the last meeting
- 2026California 21–18
- 2024Syracuse 33–25
- 1968California 43–0
- 1967Syracuse 20–14
Best players
California
- Ian Strong (WR) · 158 receiving yards
- Adam Mohammed (RB) · 194 rushing yards
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) · 453 passing yards — Heisman odds: 27th (+6000)
Syracuse
- Umari Hatcher (WR) · 224 receiving yards
- Chris D'Appolonia (LB) · 15 tackles
- Steven Angeli (QB) · 569 passing yards
The line, and the room
Syracuse fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (59th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home −4 · O/U 56.5
Conditions
Syracuse is worth +3.8 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 42nd percentile.
51% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (23–22 home, 14–27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 70 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 2,420 miles to get here.
California 21 – Syracuse 18
Missed — picked Syracuse, California won.
Recent games
Syracuse
- Wk 1Wvs New Hampshire66-3
California
- Wk 1Lvs UCLA24-45
Trajectory
Conference standings
- Syracuse#170-1
- California#31-0
California upset the pregame pick, beating Syracuse 21-18.