The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 4 Notre Dame 13%, No. 14 Wake Forest 34%, Virginia Tech 69%
Win out 3% · expect 2.1 of 4 more wins
SMU's chance to win each game left, from our model: Virginia Tech 69%, Wake Forest 34%, Notre Dame 13%, Stanford 90%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 12% to 12%, peaking at 33% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 3rd in the ACC · 4-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Kevin Jennings 2,433 · Rushing Kendrick Raphael 697 · Receiving Yamir Knight 523 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 7 | #15 | #82 | −3= | @Florida State | W 27-24 135 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Jennings 430 · Rush Raphael 75 · Rec Smith 107 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #15 | #115 | −32.5✓ +13.5 | UC Davis | W 56-10 116 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Jennings 337 · Rush McFall 46 · Rec Knight 62 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #12 | #56 | +3✗ −7 | @Louisville | L 31-41 140 | 2-1 | 1-1 | Pass Jennings 222 · Rush Raphael 197 · Rec Knight 70 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #13 | #97 | −30.5✗ −20.5 | Missouri State | W 34-24 141 Loud | 3-1 | 1-1 | Pass Jennings 464 · Rush Raphael 98 · Rec Knight 164 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #18 | #138 | −21.5✗ −12.5 | Boston College | W 25-16 127 | 4-1 | 2-1 | Pass Jennings 160 · Rush Raphael 45 · Rec Cooper 45 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #33 | #61 | −10= | Virginia | W 23-13 123 | 5-1 | 3-1 | Pass Jennings 246 · Rush Raphael 124 · Rec Smith 87 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #36 | #113 | −18.5✓ +20.5 | California | W 59-20 134 | 6-1 | 4-1 | Pass Jennings 223 · Rush Raphael 104 · Rec Cooper 37 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #27 | #107 | −8.5✗ −11.5 | @Syracuse | L 27-30 139 Firestorm | 6-2 | 4-2 | Pass Jennings 351 · Rush Raphael 51 · Rec Smith 95 |
| 10 | Nov 6 | #33 | #56 | −6 | Virginia Tech | 7 pm ET · ESPN69% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #33 | #17 | Wake Forest | time TBA34% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | +17.5 | @Notre Dame | 7:30 pm ET · NBC13% to win | |||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Stanford | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for SMU, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for SMU: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Syracuse | L 27-30 | 421 | 2 | 30:26 | +0.279 | 49.3% | 1.15 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | California | W 59-20 | 492 | 0 | 28:38 | +0.482 | 51.4% | 1.31 | Blowout win |
| Oct 17 | Virginia | W 23-13 | 404 | 0 | 30:59 | +0.149 | 45.1% | 1.26 | |
| Oct 3 | Boston College | W 25-16 | 218 | 0 | 26:55 | +0.076 | 35.9% | 1.38 | |
| Sep 26 | Missouri State | W 34-24 | 592 | 2 | 34:14 | +0.189 | 55.1% | 0.98 | |
| Sep 19 | @Louisville | L 31-41 | 479 | 3 | 31:56 | -0.000 | 42.7% | 1.24 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | UC Davis | W 56-10 | 547 | 0 | 27:20 | +0.577 | 56.4% | 1.60 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 7 | @Florida State | W 27-24 | 585 | 4 | 27:44 | +0.373 | 55.2% | 1.29 | One-score win |
| Season average (8 games) | 467 | 1.4 | +0.266 | 48.9% | 1.27 | ||||
SMU's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
After that throw, I saw Derrick [McFall] put his hand up, and I was like, ‘Oh yeah, he’s going to make this play,’
12% now · ▼ 10 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · SMU · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 2%; 7 wins 21%; 8 wins 49%; 9 wins 25%; 10 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
SMU is the only program the NCAA ever shut down entirely — and the Mustangs spent thirty years clawing back to make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff in their very first ACC season.
Mustang fans are done being a cautionary tale. They'll tell you SMU paid its debt twice over, made the first 12-team Playoff in year one of the ACC, and that anyone still leading with the penalty is…
SMU · Game-day weather
Typical at Gerald J. Ford Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm Saturdays 79
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
SMU is the Pony Express program that survived the death penalty, returned to the ACC in 2024, and went 11-3 with a CFP appearance in year one of the P5 reboot.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
30th percentile among FBS programs
9 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #19, Javon Edmonds (Syracuse Post-Standard), to #25, Tom Murphy (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette). 61 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · SMU · 2026