CFB Zeitgeist Score
66
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 95th percentile.
Kendrick Raphael
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
Kendrick Raphael arrives at California with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
952RUSH YDS13RUSH TD233CARRIES
PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP
-44
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to SMU
2025California
2026SMU
RB · CALIFORNIA · ACC
Kendrick Raphael
- 3
- #1
- 5-11 | 200 lb
- Naples, FL
Heisman Heat
#2567
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025+206%
Up 206% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8875 | No. 489 recruit | HighSchool | NC State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | California -> SMU | 4-star | 0.9200 | Immediate |
| 2025 | NC State -> California | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (952).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to NC State
Composite
0.8875
#489 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Kendrick Raphael
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
- Rivals · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Kendrick Raphael
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing yards (total)
952
yds
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #16 of 69
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 78th
Why it matters
#16 of 69 P4 + Notre Dame RBs in total rushing yards — 952 yards on 233 carries.
Vs cohort
This player 952 (78th)
HIGH · n=233 cohort 69
- Also strong
- Rushing WEPA per carry#61 / 66
- Yards per carry#62 / 69
Signature Moment
Week 2 vs Texas Southern — 131 rushing_yards_total
Result W 35-3
The week the volume broke through — put up 131 yds vs Texas Southern.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 13g
952Rush yards
233Carries
13Rush TDs
Per game
73.2Rush yards
18Carries
1Rush TDs
Final
952Rush yards
233Carries
13Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 952.
✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 13.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Kendrick Raphael is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 952 rushing yards, 34 catches, and 0 return yards for California. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
233 99th
YDS
952 94th
YPC
4.1 36th
TD
13 98th
Receiving
REC
34 97th
YDS
245 95th
YPR
7.2 55th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-15@ Oregon State | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 2 | W 35-3vs Texas Southern | 18 | 131 | 7.3 | 1 | 33 | Season-high 131 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 27-14vs Minnesota | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 4 | L 0-34@ San Diego State | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 5 | W 28-24@ Boston College | 25 | 119 | 4.8 | 1 | 20 | |
| Wk 6 | L 21-45vs Duke | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 2 | 29 | |
| Wk 8 | W 21-18vs North Carolina | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 1 | 16 | |
| Wk 9 | L 34-42@ Virginia Tech | 20 | 71 | 3.6 | 3 | 11 | 3 rushing TDs |
| Wk 10 | L 21-31vs Virginia | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 2 | 18 | |
| Wk 11 | W 29-26@ Louisville | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 1 | 24 | |
| Wk 13 | L 10-31@ Stanford | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 14 | W 38-35vs SMU | 33 | 111 | 3.4 | 1 | 10 | |
| Bowl | L 31-35@ Hawai'i | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 1 | 19 | |
| Total | 233 | 952 | 4.0 | 13 | 33 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023NC State9-4HC: Dave Doeren · Run-leaning
2025California7-6HC: Justin Wilcox · Pass-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | California | 233 | 952 | 4.1 | 13 | -- |
| 2023 | NC State | 67 | 311 | 4.6 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 300 | 1,263 | 4.2 | 14 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | California | 34 | 245 | 7.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | NC State | 10 | 96 | 9.6 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 44 | 341 | 7.8 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 952 | #44/735 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 13 | #16/739 | 98th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.1 | #475/735 | 36th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 34 | #20/552 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 245 | #31/548 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.04 | #309/362 | 15th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 211 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 29.2% | #14/738 | 98th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 233 | #10/739 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 33 | #282/733 | 62nd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 42 | #63/540 | 89th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 7.2 | #250/548 | 55th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 61.8% | #3/738 | 100th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 37.2% | #7/738 | 99th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 36.2% | #7/738 | 99th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 26.9% | #34/738 | 96th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 16.5% | #56/738 | 93rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 13.5% | #98/738 | 87th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 7.7% | #64/738 | 91st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #205/256 | 20th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 79.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Road7g | 67.7 | 4.0 | 0.9 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 86.3 | 4.4 | 0.7 |
| Losses6g | 58.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 73.3 | 4.4 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 73.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
66Solid starter
Elite: carries (97th). Strength: rush tds (95th). Concern: fumbles lost (13th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.04Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Kendrick RaphaelCaliforniaAl-Jay HendersonBuffalo· 89% simAdam RandallClemson· 87% simJadan BaughFlorida· 81% sim
Carries
Rush TDs
Receptions
Rec yards
Rush yards
Long run
Yards / carry
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Rodrigues Clark’s 2021 season.
Rodrigues Clark
83%match
#2
Larry McCammon III
78%
#3
Anthony Watkins
78%
#4
Frank Peasant
78%
#5
Zylan Perry
76%
Matches Rodrigues on
Weight
Rush TD rate
Recruiting rating
Differs from Rodrigues on
Yards / reception (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Gerrid Doaks’s path through Cincinnati.
Gerrid Doaks
99%match
All-AACNFL Rd 7
#2
Josh Mack
96%
#3
Marcel Dancy
89%
#4
Lorenzo Lingard
88%
#5
Austin Jones
88%
Matches Gerrid on
Yards per carry
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Isaiah Johnson's junior season at North Texas (2022).
Isaiah Johnson
78%match
#2
Frank Peasant
75%
#3
Trent Battle
74%
#4
Dewayne Coleman
70%
#5
Trevion Cooley
72%
Matches Isaiah on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
EPA / carry (adj)
Height
Differs from Isaiah on
Weight (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Justin Wilcox
Pass share
57.0%
502 pass / 379 run
Plays / game
67.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
8.2%
353 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Justin Wilcox
California
2025
Justin Wilcox
California
Played his entire career under Justin Wilcox.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownNaples, FL
Height5'11"
Weight200 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamCalifornia
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | California | ACC | RB | 3 | No. 1 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Naples, FL |
| 2024 | NC State | ACC | RB | 3 | No. 1 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Naples, FL |
| 2023 | NC State | ACC | RB | 3 | No. 1 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Naples, FL |