SMU 27-24 Florida State (Sep 7, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: SMU · Florida State

No. 19 SMU1-027

Florida State1-124Final

Mon, Sep 7 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla. · Crowd 60,107

No. 19 SMU beat Florida State 27-24.

We had SMU favored. It won.

Next: SMU beat UC Davis 56-10, Sat Sep 12

Next: Florida State lost to Alabama 50-36, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

Thankfully this puts all Jennings Heisman talk to bed. What a joke

Q4 7:00 · r/CFB game thread · Mon, Sep 7

How it swung

The turning point: Jennings 79-yd TD pass to Smith, SMU goes ahead 24-17 (Q4, 12:37). SMU went from 51% to 79% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave SMU a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (SMU was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

A tight one: SMU bottomed out at 47% and won.

Florida State never had better than a 53% chance.

79-yard TD pass

SMU · Q4 12:37

FinalSMU 27-24 Florida StateSMU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 2:08Kromah 6-yd TD run, ties it 17-17SMU 73% → 52% (−21)
2Q4 12:37Jennings 79-yd TD pass to Smith, SMU goes ahead 24-17SMU 51% → 79% (+28)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 2:08Kromah 6-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Florida State 27% → 48% (+21)
2Q4 12:37Jennings 79-yd TD pass to Smith, SMU goes ahead 24-17Florida State 49% → 21% (−28)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 6:58SMU has gone full brain deadr/CFB game threadSMU is doing everything they can to keep FSU in this gamer/CFB game thread
Q4 7:00Kevin Jennings throws an interception, ending his Heisman hopesQuoted at the top of the page.Heisman campaign lolololr/CFB game thread

SMU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (SMU -3), at 52% for SMU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Florida State or SMU flair (1,841 and 416); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Kickoff came 1 hour 47 minutes late. No thunder was reported at Tallahassee Rgnl airport (4.2 miles away) around the delay.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show SMU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

SMU scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Florida State on 4 of its 12.

SMU’s drives are teal, Florida State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Florida State’s side

Florida State’s best moment: Kromah 6-yd TD run, ties it 17-17 (Q3 2:08). It lifted Florida State’s win chance by 21 points.

How Florida State fans took it: “Ok that was kinda funny” r/CFB game thread

“SMU scored, let's see how SMU responds to keep FSU in this game”

A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Quiet

The jump was quiet; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

SMU fans

jennings“I love that they keep talking about Jennings being a potential Heisman candidate. Really goes to show the power of propaganda.”

undisciplined“Lashlee is easily the best we can do but his undisciplined teams would get so exposed in the SEC. Guy needs to do something different.”

completely“Still completely undisciplined. Same story every year.”

mistakes“We are terrible in openers but we are seeing the same mistakes.”

Florida State fans

norvell“Never forget: football terrorist Mike Norvell has more ACC titles than Miami. The more you know”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, don, ball, god.

Too close to call on 49% of plays.

What it cost

SMU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 12% to 15%.

Make the playoff

SMU · won12% → ▲15%

Florida State · lost1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

SMU · won9% → ▲12%

Florida State · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (September 6, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

SMU 27, Florida State 24

The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 51, stayed under 52.5.

Team totals	SMU	Florida State
Total yards	585	324
Passing	26 of 36, 430 yds	12 of 23, 125 yds
Rushing	31 for 155 yds	45 for 199 yds
First downs	23	16
Third down	8 of 14	2 of 15
Fourth down	0 of 0	2 of 4
Turnovers	4	1
Penalties	6 for 47 yds	3 for 27 yds
Time of possession	27:44	32:16

SMU leaders

Passing Kevin Jennings 26 of 36, 430 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Kendrick Raphael 12 for 75 yds; Dramekco Green 13 for 43 yds
Receiving Yannick Smith 5 for 107 yds, 1 TD; Randy Pittman 5 for 75 yds, 1 TD

Florida State leaders

Passing Ashton Daniels 12 of 23, 125 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Ousmane Kromah 22 for 116 yds, 1 TD; Ashton Daniels 16 for 71 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Samuel Singleton 2 for 40 yds, 1 TD; Duce Robinson 2 for 25 yds

Kickoff came 1 hour 47 minutes late

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the east, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 20

No thunder was reported at Tallahassee Rgnl airport (4.2 miles away) around the delay.

September game-day temperatures at Doak Campbell Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 12:37 left11:53 p.m.

SMU 24, Florida State 17 · Florida State 21% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the east-northeast · 80°

Jennings 79-yd TD pass to Smith, SMU goes ahead 24-17

Measured at Tallahassee Rgnl airport, 4.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

SMU · 9-4

Rated 15th in our preseason ratings.

W 24-19 vs ArizonaTop 25 #43 of 667

won by 5 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 35-38 @ California #91 of 667

lost by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 38-6 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #44 of 667

won by 32 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 45-13 @ Boston College #132 of 667

won by 32 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 26-20 vs MiamiTop 25 #8 of 667

won by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 12-13 @ Wake Forest #47 of 667

lost by 1 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 35-24 @ ClemsonTop 25 #24 of 667

won by 11 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 34-10 vs Stanford #108 of 667

won by 24 as a 19.5-point favorite

W 31-18 vs Syracuse #64 of 667

won by 13 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 24-35 @ TCUTop 25 #25 of 667

lost by 11 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 28-10 @ Missouri State #127 of 667

won by 18 as a 28.5-point favorite

L 45-48 vs Baylor #25 of 667

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 42-13 vs East Texas A&M #204 of 667

won by 29 as a 50.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Florida State · 5-7

Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 82nd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 21-40 @ FloridaTop 25 #38 of 667

lost by 19 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 11-21 @ NC State #55 of 667

lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 34-14 vs Virginia Tech #84 of 667

won by 20 as a 13.5-point favorite

L 10-24 @ ClemsonTop 25 #23 of 667

lost by 14 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 42-7 vs Wake Forest #60 of 667

won by 35 as a 12.5-point favorite

L 13-20 @ Stanford #99 of 667

lost by 7 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 31-34 vs PittsburghTop 25 #43 of 667

lost by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite

L 22-28 vs MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 38-46 @ VirginiaTop 25 #43 of 667

lost by 8 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 66-10 vs Kent State #233 of 667

won by 56 as a 45.5-point favorite

W 77-3 vs East Texas A&M #226 of 667

won by 74 as a 43.5-point favorite

W 31-17 vs AlabamaTop 25 #8 of 667

won by 14 as a 13.5-point underdog

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: SMU’s passing EPA against Florida State, 65 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

SMU’s EPA/play against Florida State’s defense
SMU offense, 76th percentile · Florida State defense, 15th
SMU’s passing EPA against Florida State’s defense
SMU offense, 89th percentile · Florida State defense, 24th
Florida State’s explosive plays against SMU’s defense
Florida State offense, 92nd percentile · SMU defense, 33rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

SMUFlorida State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

SMU leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · SMU won the last meeting

2024SMU 42-16

Each line is Florida State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

SMU fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (53rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

SMU favored by 3 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

SMU by 3, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward SMU.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Florida State is worth +7.2 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 93rd percentile.

58% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 12-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.5 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 752 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Florida State4th0-0
SMU5th0-0

Full ACC standings

No. 19 SMU beats Florida State 27-24