SMU hosts Missouri State. Too early for a market line, but the model likes SMU (91%).
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 3, 2026
The series
SMU leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2025 · SMU won the last meeting
- 2025SMU 28–10
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Missouri State
The chip · vs the national mediaMissouri State keeps building real, credentialed coaching success -- a 30-year title drought broken, an FBS jump that produced a bowl bid in year one -- and keeps losing the architect to a bigger job right as it happens. Fans see a program other places keep raiding rather than one that can't win.
What this game touches
Losing Bobby Petrino, then Ryan Beard, right after each breakthrough. Petrino ended a 30-year title drought and reached back-to-back FCS Playoffs, then left for UNLV in December 2022. Beard led the program's FBS debut to a 7-6 season and the program's first-ever bowl bid, then left for Coastal Carolina before the bowl game itself was even played -- forcing an interim coach, Bobby's son Nick Petrino, to coach it instead.
SMU
The chip · vs the national mediaMustang fans are done being a cautionary tale. They'll tell you SMU paid its debt twice over, made the first 12-team Playoff in year one of the ACC, and that anyone still leading with the penalty is forty years behind the program.
Best players
SMU
- Ahmaad Moses (S) · 2025: 104 tackles
- Kevin Jennings (QB) · 2025: 3,641 passing yards — Heisman odds: 30th (+7500)
- Isaiah Nwokobia (S) · 2025: 80 tackles
Missouri State
- Jacob Clark (QB) · 2025: 3,244 passing yards
- Kanye Young (LB) · 2025: 77 tackles
- Jared Lloyd (LB) · 2025: 76 tackles
The line, and the room
Missouri State fans are feeling better about their season (96th percentile) than SMU fans are (58th) — even with SMU favored here.
Conditions
SMU is 81% at home, 58% on the road since 2018 (38-9 home, 29-21 away).