SMU 34-24 Missouri State (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Missouri State · SMU

Missouri State1-324

No. 22 SMU3-134Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas · Crowd 31,987

No. 22 SMU beat Missouri State 34-24.

We had SMU favored. It won.

Next: Missouri State lost to Western Kentucky 34-13, Thu Oct 8

Next: SMU beat Boston College 25-16, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

SMU kicker tryouts on Monday.

Q3 1:39 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave SMU a 92% chance, and the closing betting line (SMU was a 30.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Favored the whole way: SMU never fell below 86%.

Missouri State led by 10 but, as a 30.5-point underdog, never had better than a 14% chance.

Pick-six

Missouri State · Q1 0:4121 unanswered

SMU · Q2 0:04

FinalSMU 34-24 Missouri StateSMU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:41Boamah intercepts Jennings for a touchdown as SMU fans mock the quarterbackLol. Can someone post a gif of Jennings hitting the Heisman last week when we were losing to Louisville? That feels appropriate right now.r/CFB game thread
Q3 1:39SMU fans mock Baird's missed field goal attemptQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 8:36Officials call Missouri State for a facemask penalty on Raphael's runThey've actually been Mo. State for like 20 years nowr/CFB game thread

SMU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (SMU -30.5), at 98% for SMU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a SMU or Missouri State flair (110 and 43); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show SMU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

SMU scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Missouri State on 3 of its 10.

SMU’s drives are teal, Missouri State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“SMU kicker tryouts on Monday.”

A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Loud

The loudest stretch came in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

SMU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 20% to 21%.

Make the playoff

Missouri State · lost0% → 0%

SMU · won20% → ▲21%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

SMU 34, Missouri State 24

Missouri State covered +30.5 by 20.5. The total, 58, stayed under 60.5.

Team totals	Missouri State	SMU
Total yards	239	592
Passing	22 of 34, 171 yds	33 of 39, 464 yds
Rushing	28 for 68 yds	40 for 128 yds
First downs	14	28
Third down	4 of 16	8 of 12
Fourth down	2 of 3	0 of 1
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	8 for 60 yds	12 for 111 yds
Time of possession	25:46	34:14

Missouri State leaders

Passing Skyler Locklear 15 of 19, 102 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Jambres Dubar 7 for 76 yds; Ramone Green Jr. 10 for 27 yds
Receiving Isaiah Myers 5 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Mekhi Miller 5 for 40 yds

SMU leaders

Passing Kevin Jennings 33 of 39, 464 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Kendrick Raphael 23 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Dramekco Green 10 for 26 yds
Receiving Yamir Knight 11 for 164 yds, 1 TD; Jalen Cooper 8 for 125 yds

No rain and calm

88° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the south-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 21

September game-day temperatures at Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:25 left8:12 p.m.

Missouri State 0, SMU 0 · SMU 98% to win

no rain · wind 12 mph from the south-southeast, mostly at an angle to the field · 87°

Raphael 10-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Dallas/love Field, 4.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Missouri State · 1-2

Rated 94th in our preseason ratings, 97th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 24-30 vs Marshall #39 of 668

lost by 6 as a 4-point underdog

W 48-14 vs Lindenwood #180 of 668

won by 34 as a 16.5-point favorite

L 0-50 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #6 of 668

lost by 50 as a 38.5-point underdog

Last three games

SMU · 2-1

Rated 15th in our preseason ratings, 13th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 31-41 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #43 of 668

lost by 10 as a 3-point underdog

W 56-10 vs UC Davis #102 of 668

won by 46 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 27-24 @ Florida State #84 of 668

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Week by week

SMU

Wk 1Wat Florida State27-24
Wk 2Wvs UC Davis56-10
Wk 3Lat Louisville31-41

Missouri State

Wk 1Lat Texas A&M0-50
Wk 2Wvs Lindenwood48-14
Wk 3Lvs Marshall24-30

Power rating by week

SMU is rated 10.0 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: SMU’s passing EPA against Missouri State, 78 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

SMU’s EPA/play against Missouri State’s defense
SMU offense, 76th percentile · Missouri State defense, 6th
SMU’s passing EPA against Missouri State’s defense
SMU offense, 89th percentile · Missouri State defense, 11th
SMU’s explosive plays against Missouri State’s defense
SMU offense, 68th percentile · Missouri State defense, 88th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Missouri StateSMU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

SMU leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2025 · SMU won the last meeting

2025SMU 28-10

Each line is SMU’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Missouri State fans are in a better mood than SMU fans (99th vs 20th among FBS fanbases), even with SMU favored.

SMU favored by 30.5 · Total 60.5

How games like this usually go

SMU by 30.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Missouri State.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 2.7%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 85° at kickoff.

Missouri State at SMU · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park

85°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
89weather score, Mixed
Bestof the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Gerald J. Ford Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm kickoff would have scored 55, against 89 at 8 pm.

11 am: 65, Rough
2:30 pm: 55, Rough
3:15 pm: 56, Rough
5 pm: 66, Rough
6 pm: 76, Mixed
7 pm: 85, Mixed
8 pm: 89, Mixed (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

SMU is worth +5.5 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 73rd percentile.

79% at home, 58% on the road against FBS opponents (34-9 home, 30-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.7 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 361 miles to get here.

No. 22 SMU beats Missouri State 34-24