Marshall beats Missouri State 30-24

Team pages: Marshall · Missouri State

Marshall2-130
Missouri State1-224Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Plaster Sports Complex, Springfield, Mo. · Crowd 16,010CBS Sports Network

Marshall beat Missouri State 30-24.

We had Marshall favored. It won.

Next: Marshall beat Gardner-Webb 36-35, Sat Sep 26

Next: Missouri State lost to SMU 34-24, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Del Rio-Wilson 39-yd TD pass to Lester, Marshall goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 9:24). Marshall went from 57% to 75% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Marshall a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Marshall was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

A tight one: Marshall bottomed out at 47% and won.

Missouri State never had better than a 53% chance.

Blocked field goalQ2 1:00
FinalMarshall 30-24 Missouri StateMarshall wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q485% at halfMarshallHigh 93%Won30-2412+18−15ScoresBlocked field goal
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q485% at halfMarshallHigh 93%Won30-2412ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q415% at halfMarshallLowest 7%Lost24-3012−18+15ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q415% at halfMarshallLowest 7%Lost24-3012ScoresBlocked field goal

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 9:244th and 2Del Rio-Wilson 39-yd TD pass to Lester, Marshall goes ahead 7-0Marshall 57% → 75% (+18)
  2. 2Q3 2:06Locklear 25-yd TD pass to Askren, cuts it to 27-24Marshall 83% → 68% (−15)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 9:244th and 2Del Rio-Wilson 39-yd TD pass to Lester, Marshall goes ahead 7-0Missouri State 43% → 25% (−18)
  2. 2Q3 2:06Locklear 25-yd TD pass to Askren, cuts it to 27-24Missouri State 17% → 32% (+15)
Marshall’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Marshall -4), at 48% for Marshall (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Marshall’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 9:24Del Rio-Wilson 39-yd TD pass to LesterMarshall goes ahead 7-0Q1, 9:24 · Marshall 7, Missouri State 0▲18%Marshall’s chance to win, 57% to 75%▲18%Marshall’s chance to win, 57% to 75%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q1, 2:25Barbie 1-yd TD runMarshall leads 14-3Q1, 2:25 · Marshall 14, Missouri State 3▲10%Marshall’s chance to win, 74% to 84%▲10%Marshall’s chance to win, 74% to 84%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q1, 0:12Locklear 38-yd TD pass to Edwardscuts it to 14-10Q1, 0:12 · Marshall 14, Missouri State 10▼4%Marshall’s chance to win, 80% to 76%▼4%Marshall’s chance to win, 80% to 76%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q2, 6:27Locklear intercepted by Pleasant at the Marshall 20Q2, 6:27 · Marshall 17, Missouri State 10▲8%Marshall’s chance to win, 75% to 83%▲8%Marshall’s chance to win, 75% to 83%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q2, 5:57Del Rio-Wilson pass to Sweeney for a loss of 1fumbledQ2, 5:57 · Marshall 17, Missouri State 10▼2%Marshall’s chance to win, 83% to 81%▼2%Marshall’s chance to win, 83% to 81%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q2, 0:22Del Rio-Wilson 15-yd runfumblesQ2, 0:22 · Marshall 17, Missouri State 1017-10score after the play17-10score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q3, 13:36Del Rio-Wilson 6-yd TD runMarshall leads 24-10Q3, 13:36 · Marshall 24, Missouri State 10▲9%Marshall’s chance to win, 84% to 93%▲9%Marshall’s chance to win, 84% to 93%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  8. Q3, 9:56Dubar 1-yd TD runcuts it to 24-17Q3, 9:56 · Marshall 24, Missouri State 17▼6%Marshall’s chance to win, 91% to 85%▼6%Marshall’s chance to win, 91% to 85%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  9. Q3, 2:06Locklear 25-yd TD pass to Askrencuts it to 27-24Q3, 2:06 · Marshall 27, Missouri State 24▼15%Marshall’s chance to win, 83% to 68%▼15%Marshall’s chance to win, 83% to 68%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  10. Q4, 4:59Del Rio-Wilson 8-yd runfumblesQ4, 4:59 · Marshall 30, Missouri State 24▼12%Marshall’s chance to win, 92% to 80%▼12%Marshall’s chance to win, 92% to 80%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Marshall scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Missouri State on 4 of its 9.

Marshall’s drives are teal, Missouri State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Missouri State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntMarshall: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 8Field goalMarshall: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Field goal, from 74 yards out to 9Field goalQ2Missouri State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 58InterceptionMarshall: Punt, from 77 yards out to 68PuntMissouri State: Missed field goal, from 78 yards out to 5Missed FGMarshall: End of half, from 80 yards out to 58End of halfQ3Marshall: Touchdown, from 48 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 14Field goalMissouri State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Field goal, from 77 yards out to 13Field goalQ4Missouri State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntMarshall: Fumble, from 72 yards out to 7FumbleMissouri State: Turned over on downs, from 93 yards out to 7DownsMarshall: End of game, from 93 yards out to 81End of game

From Missouri State’s side

Missouri State’s best moment: Kneel-down (Q4 0:55). It lifted Missouri State’s win chance by 15 points.

What it cost

Marshall’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Marshall · won1% → ▼0%
Missouri State · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Marshall · won7% → ▼6%7%▼ 6%
Missouri State · lost8% → ▼0%8%▼ 0%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Marshall 30, Missouri State 24

Marshall covered −4 by 2. The total, 54, went over 52.5.

MarshallMissouri StateTotal yardsMarshall 464Missouri State 506464506Passing yardsMarshall 197Missouri State 320197320Rushing yardsMarshall 267Missouri State 186267186First downsMarshall 25Missouri State 242524TurnoversMarshall 1Missouri State 111Time of possessionMarshall 34:29Missouri State 25:3134:2925:31
Team totalsMarshallMissouri State
Total yards464506
Passing17 of 26, 197 yds20 of 29, 320 yds
Rushing45 for 267 yds36 for 186 yds
First downs2524
Third down7 of 134 of 9
Fourth down1 of 10 of 1
Turnovers11
Penalties5 for 60 yds11 for 87 yds
Time of possession34:2925:31

Marshall leaders

  • Passing Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 16 of 25, 176 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Joshon Barbie 12 for 81 yds, 1 TD; Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 16 for 73 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 6 for 73 yds; TJ Lester 3 for 64 yds, 1 TD

Missouri State leaders

  • Passing Skyler Locklear 19 of 28, 309 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Ramone Green Jr. 15 for 76 yds; Skyler Locklear 8 for 53 yds
  • Receiving Isaiah Myers 7 for 141 yds; Jeron Askren 3 for 40 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

95° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the south-southwest, mostly along the field, gusts to 17

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Missouri State favoredMarshall favored0%Win chanceMissouri StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Missouri State favoredMarshall favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 9:24 left5:42 p.m.
Marshall 7, Missouri State 0 · Missouri State 25% to win
no rain · wind 12 mph from the southwest, mostly at an angle to the field · 95°
Del Rio-Wilson 39-yd TD pass to Lester, Marshall goes ahead 7-0

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Springfield, 6.7 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Marshall · 1-1

Rated 23rd in our preseason ratings, 33rd now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee #128 of 668

won by 2 as an 11.5-point favorite

Marshall won 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 84%, low 34%, high better than 99%.

L 0-45 @ Penn StateTop 25 #38 of 668

lost by 45 as a 23.5-point underdog

Marshall lost 0-45 at Penn State. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 4%.

Last two games

Missouri State · 1-1

Rated 94th in our preseason ratings, 97th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 48-14 vs Lindenwood #180 of 668

won by 34 as a 16.5-point favorite

Missouri State won 48-14 vs Lindenwood. Chance to win started at 90%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

L 0-50 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #6 of 668

lost by 50 as a 38.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 0-50 at Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Week by week

Missouri State

Wk 1: L 0-50 at Texas A&M▼50Texas A&MWk 2: W 48-14 vs Lindenwood▲34Lindenwood
  • Wk 1Lat Texas A&M0-50
  • Wk 2Wvs Lindenwood48-14

Marshall

Wk 1: L 0-45 at Penn State▼45Penn StateWk 2: W 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee▲2Middle Tennessee
  • Wk 1Lat Penn State0-45
  • Wk 2Wvs Middle Tennessee28-26

Power rating by week

Marshall is rated 7.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

103-4Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2Missouri StateMarshall

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Marshall’s explosive plays against Missouri State, 67 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Marshall’s explosive plays against Missouri State’s defense

    67 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Marshall offense, 21st percentile · Missouri State defense, 88th

  2. Marshall’s success rate against Missouri State’s defense

    55 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Marshall offense, 58th percentile · Missouri State defense, 3rd

  3. Missouri State’s passing EPA against Marshall’s defense

    47 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Missouri State offense, 53rd percentile · Marshall defense, 6th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MarshallMissouri State
EPA/play, offense
Marshall · 42Missouri State · 26
EPA/play, defense
Marshall · 8Missouri State · 6
Success rate, offense
Marshall · 58Missouri State · 27
Success rate, defense
Marshall · 19Missouri State · 3
Explosive-play rate, offense
Marshall · 21Missouri State · 36
Explosive-play rate, defense
Marshall · 17Missouri State · 88
Rush EPA, offense
Marshall · 35Missouri State ·…
Rush EPA, defense
Marshall · 16Missouri State · 18
Pass EPA, offense
Marshall · 46Missouri State · 53
Pass EPA, defense
Marshall · 6Missouri State · 11

The series

Missouri State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2025 · Missouri State won the last meeting

  • 2025Missouri State 21-20Missouri State won 21-20 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 22%, low 6%, high 77%.

Each line is Missouri State’s chance to win through that meeting. Missouri State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Missouri State fans are in a better mood than Marshall fans (98th vs 88th among FBS fanbases), even with Marshall favored.

50-50Model 39% · Line 37%Missouri State fans · 98thMarshall fans · 88thMarshallMissouri State

Marshall favored by 4 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Marshall by 4, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Missouri State.

opened +4.5now +4

The total fell 1 point.

opened 53.5now 52.5

Spread: +4.5 → +4 · Total: 53.5 → 52.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 88° at kickoff.

Marshall at Missouri State · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Plaster Sports Complex, Springfield

  • 88°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 77weather score, Mixed
  • 3rdbest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Plaster Sports Complex that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 91, against 77 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 55, Rough
  • 11:45 am: 55, Rough
  • 1 pm: 54, Rough
  • 2:30 pm: 52, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 54, Rough
  • 6 pm: 77, Mixed (this game)
  • 6:30 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 91, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Missouri State is worth +5.7 points (±6.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 77th percentile.

30% at home, 20% on the road against FBS opponents (3-7 home, 4-16 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.5 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 598 miles to get here.

Where next