Middle Tennessee at Marshall
Fan take
Middle Tennessee fans
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Middle Tennessee · 3-9
Picked #131 in the preseason · now #155.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over New Mexico State as a 3.5-point underdog.
W 31–24 @ New Mexico State #212 of 668
won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 31–17 vs Sam Houston #225 of 668
won by 14 as a 7-point favorite
L 26–42 @ Western Kentucky #108 of 668
lost by 16 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 30–56 vs Florida International #124 of 668
lost by 26 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 21–24 vs Jacksonville State #89 of 668
lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 28–31 @ Delaware #124 of 668
lost by 3 as a 8-point underdog
L 20–22 vs Missouri State #143 of 668
lost by 2 as a 3-point underdog
L 16–24 @ Kennesaw State #163 of 668
lost by 8 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 28–42 vs Marshall #90 of 668
lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 14–13 @ Nevada #142 of 668
won by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 10–42 @ Wisconsin #54 of 668
lost by 32 as a 28.5-point underdog
L 14–34 vs Austin Peay #137 of 668
lost by 20 as a 16.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Marshall · 5-7
Picked #20 in the preseason · now #20 — about right.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 19–24 vs Georgia Southern #124 of 668
lost by 5 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 24–26 @ App State #158 of 668
lost by 2 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 30–18 @ Georgia State #198 of 668
won by 12 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 23–35 vs James MadisonTop 25 #23 of 668
lost by 12 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 27–44 @ Coastal Carolina #129 of 668
lost by 17 as a 7-point favorite
W 40–37 vs Texas State #66 of 668
won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 48–24 vs Old Dominion #40 of 668
won by 24 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 51–54 @ Louisiana #89 of 668
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 42–28 @ Middle Tennessee #169 of 668
won by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 38–7 vs Eastern Kentucky #154 of 668
won by 31 as a 15-point favorite
L 20–21 vs Missouri State #118 of 668
lost by 1 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 7–45 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #8 of 668
lost by 38 as a 38.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 13, 2026
The series
Marshall leads the series 6-5
11 meetings since 2013 · Marshall has won the last 2
- 2026Marshall 28–26
- 2025Marshall 42–28
- 2021Middle Tennessee 34–28
- 2020Marshall 42–14
- 2019Middle Tennessee 24–13
Best players
Middle Tennessee
- Korey Smith (LB) · 16 tackles
- Cam'Ron Lacy (WR) · 190 receiving yards
- Kalen Woods (S) · 13 tackles
Marshall
- Jaydyn Johnson (LB) · 24 tackles
- Caleb Clark-Glover (DB) · 20 tackles
- Cannon Lewis (LB) · 17 tackles
The line, and the room
Marshall fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (90th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 92%
- Market · 82%
- Marshall fans · 90th
- Middle Tennessee fans · 47th
Home −11.5 · O/U 56.5
Conditions
75°F · 4 mph wind · Rain Shower
Marshall is worth +1.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.
67% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (28–14 home, 24–22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.6 at home vs. away over 75 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 281 miles to get here.
Middle Tennessee 26 – Marshall 28
Called it — picked Marshall to win.
Recent games
Marshall
- Wk 1Lat Penn State0-45
Middle Tennessee
- Wk 1Wvs Murray State38-14
Trajectory
Marshall handled Middle Tennessee 28-26, matching the pregame favorite.