Middle Tennessee beats Nevada 27-20
Team pages: Nevada · Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee beat Nevada 27-20. Share this game
We had Middle Tennessee favored. It won.
Next: Nevada lost to Air Force 36-33, Sat Sep 26
Next: Middle Tennessee lost to Jacksonville State 23-13, Sat Sep 26
How it swung
The turning point: Kelley 1-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 10:03). Middle Tennessee went from 43% to 25% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Middle Tennessee a 74% chance, and the closing betting line (Middle Tennessee was a 3.5-point underdog) put it at 39%.
Middle Tennessee 27-20 Nevada
Play-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Nevada 20-27 Middle TennesseePlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:034th and 1Kelley 1-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 7-0Middle Tennessee 43% → 25% (−18)
- 2Q1 4:35Gagliano 23-yd TD pass to Perdue, ties it 7-7Middle Tennessee 33% → 50% (+17)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:034th and 1Kelley 1-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 7-0Nevada 57% → 75% (+18)
- 2Q1 4:35Gagliano 23-yd TD pass to Perdue, ties it 7-7Nevada 67% → 50% (−17)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Nevada -3.5), at 48% for Middle Tennessee (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Middle Tennessee scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Nevada on 4 of its 10.
Middle Tennessee’s drives are teal, Nevada’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Nevada’s side
Nevada’s best moment: Kelley 1-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 10:03). It lifted Nevada’s win chance by 18 points.
What it cost
Middle Tennessee’s chance to win the conference fell from 7% to 2%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Middle Tennessee 27, Nevada 20
Middle Tennessee covered +3.5 by 10.5. The total, 47, stayed under 50.5.
| Team totals | Nevada | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 263 | 330 |
| Passing | 15 of 25, 185 yds | 16 of 29, 173 yds |
| Rushing | 34 for 78 yds | 38 for 157 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 19 |
| Third down | 5 of 13 | 4 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Penalties | 6 for 54 yds | 10 for 84 yds |
| Time of possession | 25:32 | 34:28 |
Nevada leaders
- Passing Carter Jones 15 of 25, 185 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Dominic Kelley 13 for 45 yds, 1 TD; Carter Jones 11 for 31 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Damien Moun 4 for 60 yds; Gary Givens III 2 for 38 yds
Middle Tennessee leaders
- Passing Roman Gagliano 16 of 29, 173 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Antonio Martin 23 for 104 yds, 1 TD; Brooklen Davis 3 for 20 yds
- Receiving Markus Allen 3 for 65 yds; Cam'Ron Lacy 6 for 32 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
95° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 54 other games played at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 83°.
September game-day temperatures at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Murfreesboro airport, 1.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Nevada · 1-1
Rated 229th in our preseason ratings, 176th now, up 53 spots.
1-1 in its last two, including a 35-point win over Western Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog.
Last two games
Middle Tennessee · 1-1
Rated 133rd in our preseason ratings, 128th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Middle Tennessee
- Wk 1Wvs Murray State38-14
- Wk 2Lat Marshall26-28
Nevada
- Wk 1Wvs Western Kentucky49-14
- Wk 2Lvs Montana State7-20
Power rating by week
Middle Tennessee is rated 3.1 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Nevada’s rushing EPA against Middle Tennessee, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Nevada’s rushing EPA against Middle Tennessee’s defense
Nevada offense, 74th percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 16th
Middle Tennessee’s success rate against Nevada’s defense
Middle Tennessee offense, 22nd percentile · Nevada defense, 63rd
Middle Tennessee’s explosive plays against Nevada’s defense
Middle Tennessee offense, 74th percentile · Nevada defense, 43rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Middle Tennessee leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2025 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting
- 2025Middle Tennessee 14-13
Each line is Middle Tennessee’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Middle Tennessee fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (86th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 74%
- Line · 39%
- Middle Tennessee fans · 86th
- Nevada fans · 12th
Nevada favored by 3.5 · Total 50.5
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Middle Tennessee.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +6.5 → +3.5 · Total: 49.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 91° at kickoff.
Nevada at Middle Tennessee · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro
- 91°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 74weather score, Rough
- 3rdbest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 82, against 74 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 47, Harsh
- 11:45 am: 47, Harsh
- 1 pm: 47, Harsh
- 2:30 pm: 46, Harsh
- 3:30 pm: 51, Rough
- 6 pm: 74, Rough (this game)
- 6:30 pm: 80, Mixed
- 7 pm: 82, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Middle Tennessee is worth +5.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.
50% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (19-19 home, 16-38 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,836 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Middle Tennessee 14, Nevada 13Sep 13, 2025