Air Force travels to Nevada. No market line yet; the model gives Air Force a 76% shot.
What’s at stake
Nevada
- Nevada hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2019.
Air Force
- Air Force hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
The series
Air Force leads the series 6-2
8 meetings since 2012 · Air Force has won the last 3
- 2024Air Force 22–19
- 2022Air Force 48–20
- 2021Air Force 41–39
- 2018Nevada 28–25
- 2017Air Force 45–42
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Air Force
The chip · vs the national mediaFalcons fans say the talking heads write the academy off every August — too small, too slow, the offense from another century — then act surprised when those cadets out-discipline a more talented roster on a Saturday in Colorado Springs.
Nevada
The chip · vs the national mediaFans point out that half of college football borrowed the Pistol from a chalkboard in Reno, and that nobody outside the Mountain West remembers the offense was theirs — or that they once put a future Super Bowl quarterback on the biggest stage.
What this game touches
Two straight three-win years. Jeff Choate went 3-10 in 2024 and 3-9 in 2025 — two seasons at the bottom of the Mountain West for a program that once finished ranked and beat Boise State. The fear in Reno is that the great era is receding into history.
Best players
Nevada
- Dylan Labarbera (DL) · 2025: 88 tackles
- Murvin Kenion III (DB) · 2025: 59 tackles
- A.J. Odums (CB) · 2025: 49 tackles
Air Force
- Blake Fletcher (LB) · 2025: 108 tackles
- Roger Jones Jr. (DB) · 2025: 76 tackles
- Owen Allen (RB) · 2025: 749 rushing yards
The line, and the room
Nevada fans are feeling better about their season (85th percentile) than Air Force fans are (0th) — even with Air Force favored here.
Conditions
Nevada is 49% at home, 33% on the road since 2018 (23-24 home, 15-31 away).