North Dakota State at Air Force
Fan take
North Dakota State fans
Air Force fans
How they got here
Last two games
North Dakota State · 2-0
Picked #88 in the preseason · now #87 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 38–0 vs Fordham #241 of 669
won by 38 as a 41.5-point favorite
W 33–7 vs Jacksonville State #73 of 669
won by 26 as a 6.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Air Force · 4-8
Picked #80 in the preseason · now #94.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 42–21 @ Colorado State #192 of 668
won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 3–20 vs New Mexico #79 of 668
lost by 17 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 16–26 @ UConn #65 of 668
lost by 10 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 26–16 @ San José State #93 of 668
won by 10 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 17–20 vs Army #77 of 668
lost by 3 as a 1-point underdog
W 24–21 vs Wyoming #99 of 668
won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 48–51 @ UNLV #78 of 668
lost by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 31–34 @ NavyTop 25 #41 of 668
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 35–44 vs Hawai'i #103 of 668
lost by 9 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 37–49 vs Boise StateTop 25 #33 of 668
lost by 12 as a 11.5-point underdog
L 30–49 @ Utah State #121 of 668
lost by 19 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 49–13 vs Bucknell #169 of 668
won by 36 as a 30.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
North Dakota State
- North Dakota State needs 3 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 96% to get there with a win here, 86% with a loss.
- North Dakota State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
Air Force
- Air Force hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
The series
North Dakota State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · North Dakota State won the last meeting
- 2026North Dakota State 38–32
Best players
North Dakota State
- Donovan Woolen (LB) · 22 tackles
- Nathan Hayes (QB) · 598 passing yards
- Gavin Sell (LB) · 14 tackles
Air Force
- Blake Fletcher (LB) · 21 tackles
- Dallas Daley (LB) · 12 tackles
- Liam Szarka (QB) · 139 rushing yards
The line, and the room
North Dakota State fans are feeling better about their season (82nd percentile) than Air Force fans are (55th) — even with Air Force favored here.
Home +1.5 · O/U 48.5
Conditions
61°F · 12 mph wind · Rain Shower
Air Force is worth +2.7 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 26th percentile.
62% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (24–15 home, 20–21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.2 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 6,643 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 680 miles to get here.
North Dakota State 38 – Air Force 32
Missed — picked Air Force, North Dakota State won.
The thread's loudest minute was 04:07 — 11 comments, 5.5× its usual pace.
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- BoxThe line
Blake Fletcher (Air Force): 14 tackles
Top 1% tackles game since 2021.
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Air Force
- Wk 1Wvs Duquesne34-0
North Dakota State
- Wk 1Wvs Jacksonville State33-7
- Wk 1Wvs Fordham38-0
Trajectory
Conference standings
- Air Force#100-1
- North Dakota State#11-0
The pregame pick missed: North Dakota State beat Air Force 38-32.