North Dakota State beats Air Force 38-32
Team pages: North Dakota State · Air Force
North Dakota State beat Air Force 38-32. Share this game
We had Air Force favored. North Dakota State won.
Top comment in the game thread
Nathan Hayes, Quarterback, North Dakota State University
How it swung
The turning point: Hayes 17-yd TD run, North Dakota State leads 14-0 (Q2, 14:08). North Dakota State went from 79% to 61% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota State a 47% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota State was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.
A tight one: North Dakota State bottomed out at 47% and won.
Air Force never had better than a 53% chance.
Air Force · Q2 1:48TargetingQ4 1:20
North Dakota State 38-32 Air ForceNorth Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Air Force 32-38 North Dakota StateAir Force lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:08Hayes 17-yd TD run, North Dakota State leads 14-0North Dakota State 79% → 61% (−18)
- 2Q2 12:1640-yd puntNorth Dakota State 63% → 81% (+18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:08Hayes 17-yd TD run, North Dakota State leads 14-0Air Force 21% → 39% (+18)
- 2Q2 12:1640-yd puntAir Force 37% → 19% (−18)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 4:03NDSU fans celebrate playoff eligibility after Szarka interception
They pushed HARD to have the rule changed and were successful, they can play in the playoffs and bowl game year one
r/CFB game threadWe're postseason eligible for all post season things. Playoffs are an option.
r/CFB game thread - Q2 1:48Hayes throws pick-six to Fletcher; blocked PAT keeps Bison ahead
What was that a dump off too.. boneheaded play by Hayes
r/CFB game thread - Q3 12:02Hayes throws deep touchdown pass to Conklin as NDSU fans celebrateQuoted at the top of the page.
- Q3 10:05Fans criticize the broadcast announcer for mispronouncing Nathan Hayes as Mason Hayes
I know when he said Nathan Hayes it sounded like "Mason Hayes"
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (North Dakota State -1.5), at 47% for North Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show North Dakota State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 9:54Mitchell 31-yd TD runNorth Dakota State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 9:54 · North Dakota State 7, Air Force 0▲13%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 57% to 70%▲13%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 57% to 70%▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 14:08Hayes 17-yd TD runNorth Dakota State leads 14-0Q2, 14:08 · North Dakota State 14, Air Force 0▼18%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 79% to 61%▼18%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 79% to 61%▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 8:14Hayes 29-yd TD pass to Hrynciwcuts it to 14-7Q2, 8:14 · North Dakota State 14, Air Force 7▲6%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 68% to 74%▲6%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 68% to 74%▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 5:20Hayes 44-yd TD pass to CollinsNorth Dakota State leads 21-7Q2, 5:20 · North Dakota State 21, Air Force 721-7score after the play21-7score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 3:25Szarka intercepted by Sell at the Air Force 50returned 25 yardsQ2, 3:25 · North Dakota State 21, Air Force 7▲13%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 76% to 89%▲13%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 76% to 89%▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 1:48Hayes intercepted by Fletcher at the Air Force 5 and returned for a TDblockedQ2, 1:48 · North Dakota State 21, Air Force 13▼17%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 90% to 73%▼17%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 90% to 73%▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 0:29Mitchell 1-yd TD runNorth Dakota State leads 28-13Q2, 0:29 · North Dakota State 28, Air Force 13▲14%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 68% to 82%▲14%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 68% to 82%▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q3, 12:02Hayes 41-yd TD pass to ConklinNorth Dakota State leads 35-13Q3, 12:02 · North Dakota State 35, Air Force 13▲2%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 10:59Szarka 2-yd TD runcuts it to 35-19Q4, 10:59 · North Dakota State 35, Air Force 1935-19score after the play35-19score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 4:26Hodges 2-yd TD runcuts it to 35-25Q4, 4:26 · North Dakota State 35, Air Force 2535-25score after the play35-25score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 0:50Medders 20-yd TD pass to Longcuts it to 38-32Q4, 0:50 · North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32▲6%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 93% to 99%▲6%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 93% to 99%▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
Every drive
North Dakota State scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Air Force on 4 of its 10.
North Dakota State’s drives are teal, Air Force’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Air Force’s side
Air Force’s best moment: Hayes 17-yd TD run, North Dakota State leads 14-0 (Q2 14:08). It lifted Air Force’s win chance by 18 points.
“Guys. We don't have to play Murray State ever again.”
How fans reacted
Steady
The biggest reaction came in the third quarter.
The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
North Dakota State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 12, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32
North Dakota State covered −1.5 by 4.5. The total, 70, went over 48.5.
| Team totals | North Dakota State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 374 | 386 |
| Passing | 15 of 23, 228 yds | 9 of 15, 179 yds |
| Rushing | 37 for 146 yds | 51 for 207 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 21 |
| Third down | 4 of 12 | 6 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 5 for 45 yds | 6 for 55 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:05 | 30:55 |
North Dakota State leaders
- Passing Nathan Hayes 15 of 23, 228 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Myles Mitchell 15 for 61 yds, 2 TD; DJ Scott 12 for 34 yds
- Receiving Logan Conklin 2 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Jackson Williams 2 for 53 yds
Air Force leaders
- Passing Liam Szarka 5 of 10, 103 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Liam Szarka 21 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Owen Allen 13 for 53 yds
- Receiving Matt Long 2 for 55 yds, 1 TD; Adam Hrynciw 2 for 42 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
67° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 68°, with about 7 in 10 games between 56° and 77°.
September game-day temperatures at Falcon Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Air Force Academy airport, 2.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
North Dakota State · 2-0
Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 80th now.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games · 2025 season
Air Force · 4-8
Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 82nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 42-21 @ Colorado State #195 of 667
won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 3-20 vs New Mexico #79 of 667
lost by 17 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 16-26 @ UConn #69 of 667
lost by 10 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 26-16 @ San José State #106 of 667
won by 10 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 17-20 vs Army #101 of 667
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 24-21 vs Wyoming #125 of 667
won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 48-51 @ UNLV #71 of 667
lost by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 31-34 @ NavyTop 25 #82 of 667
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 35-44 vs Hawai'i #142 of 667
lost by 9 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 37-49 vs Boise StateTop 25 #53 of 667
lost by 12 as an 11.5-point underdog
L 30-49 @ Utah State #116 of 667
lost by 19 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 49-13 vs Bucknell #222 of 667
won by 36 as a 30.5-point favorite
Week by week
Air Force
- Wk 1Wvs Duquesne34-0
North Dakota State
- Wk 1Wvs Jacksonville State33-7
- Wk 1Wvs Fordham38-0
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s passing EPA against North Dakota State, 96 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Air Force’s passing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
Air Force offense, 0th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 96th
Air Force’s explosive plays against North Dakota State’s defense
Air Force offense, 4th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 92nd
North Dakota State’s success rate against Air Force’s defense
North Dakota State offense, 35th percentile · Air Force defense, 74th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
North Dakota State fans are in a better mood than Air Force fans (85th vs 26th among FBS fanbases), even with Air Force favored.
North Dakota State favored by 1.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
North Dakota State by 1.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Air Force.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +6.5 → +1.5 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 62° at kickoff.
North Dakota State at Air Force · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs
- 62°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 5 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's five kickoff times. At Falcon Stadium that day, a 4 pm kickoff would have scored 86, against 100 at 8 pm.
- 1:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
- 4 pm: 86, Mixed
- 5 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
- 8 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Air Force is worth +2.5 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 23rd percentile.
63% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (26-15 home, 22-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.7 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 6,643 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 680 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Air Force6th0-0
- North Dakota State4th0-0