The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Oregon State 33%, Fresno State 48%, San Diego State 65%
Win out 10% · expect 1.5 of 3 more wins
Utah State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Fresno State 48%, San Diego State 65%, Oregon State 33%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 5% to 7%, peaking at 9% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Pac-12 · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Grady Brosterhous 1,120 · Rushing Javen Jacobs 491 · Receiving Eli Wood 479 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Utah State:athletics sitePac-12X@USUAthleticsInstagram@usuathletics
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #52 | #157 | −15.5✗ −27.5 | Idaho State | L 17-29 151 Roaring | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hillstead 178 · Rush Jacobs 80 · Rec Wood 90 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #56 | #25 | +28.5✓ +26.5 | @Washington | L 14-16 132 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Brosterhous 196 · Rush Brosterhous 81 · Rec Robinson 100 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #57 | #29 | +26.5✗ −6.5 | @Utah | L 0-33 128 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Brosterhous 130 · Rush Jacobs 31 · Rec Wood 47 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #55 | #113 | −3✓ +8 | Troy | W 21-10 139 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Brosterhous 242 · Rush Brosterhous 89 · Rec Wood 96 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #62 | #22 | +19.5✓ +0.5 | @Boise State | L 18-37 120 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Brosterhous 129 · Rush Jacobs 139 · Rec Wood 102 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | #64 | #63 | −4✗ −3 | Washington State | W 17-16 124 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Brosterhous 150 · Rush Jacobs 62 · Rec Wood 84 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #76 | #27 | +14.5✓ +11.5 | @Texas State | L 17-20 137 | 2-5 | 1-2 | Pass Brosterhous 206 · Rush Jacobs 42 · Rec Garcia 87 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #68 | #105 | −9.5✓ +7.5 | Colorado State | W 31-14 120 | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Hillstead 173 · Rush Hillstead 79 · Rec Garcia 121 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #57 | #49 | +2.5 | Fresno State | 9:30 pm ET · USA Network48% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #58 | #88 | @San Diego State | 9:30 pm ET · USA Network65% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Oregon State | 10:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network33% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Utah State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Utah State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Colorado State | W 31-14 | 464 | 0 | 36:08 | +0.397 | 50.0% | 1.25 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Texas State | L 17-20 | 285 | 0 | 31:44 | +0.092 | 40.0% | 1.06 | One-score loss |
| Oct 9 | Washington State | W 17-16 | 236 | 1 | 24:20 | -0.128 | 30.0% | 1.50 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Boise State | L 18-37 | 345 | 1 | 27:46 | -0.070 | 31.7% | 1.68 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | Troy | W 21-10 | 413 | 2 | 25:42 | +0.150 | 42.6% | 1.28 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | @Utah | L 0-33 | 188 | 1 | 24:46 | -0.170 | 23.6% | 1.25 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 12 | @Washington | L 14-16 | 271 | 3 | 24:55 | -0.224 | 31.0% | 1.67 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Idaho State | L 17-29 | 407 | 4 | 33:33 | +0.095 | 42.7% | 1.19 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 326 | 1.5 | +0.018 | 36.5% | 1.36 | ||||
Utah State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
I’ve been watching from the sidelines for the past year, and every time it’s like, ‘man, I can’t wait to get out there.’
Range of outcomes · Utah State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 12%; 4 wins 40%; 5 wins 38%; 6 wins 10%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Pac-12 teams the same season
Utah State is the high-altitude Cache Valley program that hands you a loss when you're not looking — now steadied by a veteran rebuilder and, improbably, packing its bags for the Pac-12.
Aggie fans have spent forever as the state's third program, behind Utah and BYU, told Logan is too small and too cold to matter. They'll point to the Pac-12 invitation and ask which little brother…
Utah State · Game-day weather
Typical at Maverik Stadium: noon Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm and 7:30 pm Saturdays 83
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Utah State is the Mountain West program whose 2012 11-2 + Famous Idaho Potato Bowl + Maverik Stadium altitude define what Logan-Utah-G5-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
72nd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Utah State · 2026