Utah State

0-2

Pac-12 · Bronco Mendenhall, year 2 (6-9) · Maverik Stadium · 25,513 · 20,723 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#56 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #108 (-11.5) · FPI #95
The marketUtah by 28at Utah · our model 22% Utah State · a number, not a pick

LastL 14–16 at Washington · Sat Sep 12 · James Jennette 1 sacks, 2 TFL, 2 tackles

Nextat Utah · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 pm ET · Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah by 28 · series 28-73-4, lost the last 3 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
15.5
Pts allowed/game
22.5
Total yards/gm#110 / 138 · 21st pct
339.0
Rush yards/gm#113 / 138 · 18th pct
118.5
Pass yards/gm#80 / 138 · 42nd pct
220.5
Yards allowed/gm#55 / 138 · 61st pct
298.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#50 / 138 · 64th pct
98.0
SacksT-#60 / 138 · 50th pct
4
3rd-down conv#21 / 138 · 85th pct
53.6%
All 86 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
678339.0/gm4.64/play#110 / 138 · 21st pct#64 / 70 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
597298.5/gm4.36/play#55 / 138 · 61st pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
237118.5/gm1.62/play#113 / 138 · 18th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
19698.0/gm1.43/play#50 / 138 · 64th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
7336.5/gmT-#76 / 138 · 45th pct#41 / 70 · 42nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6331.5/gmT-#39 / 138 · 70th pctT-#30 / 70 · 57th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
00.0/gmT-#134 / 138 · 2nd pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 50th pctT-#34 / 70 · 36th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
441220.5/gm3.02/play#80 / 138 · 42nd pct#51 / 70 · 28th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
401200.5/gm2.93/play#66 / 138 · 53rd pct#41 / 70 · 42nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
7336.5/gmT-#29 / 138 · 79th pctT-#14 / 70 · 80th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7437.0/gmT-#112 / 138 · 18th pctT-#58 / 70 · 17th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3718.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 47th pctT-#44 / 70 · 36th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4422.0/gmT-#111 / 138 · 19th pctT-#60 / 70 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#48 / 138 · 57th pctT-#33 / 70 · 46th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 70 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating allowed#5 / 91 · 95th pct#5 / 42 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
90.590.5
Interceptions thrown
Team
73.5/gmT-#1 / 138 · 99th pctT-#1 / 70 · 99th pct#10 / 13 · 31st pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 70 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
42.0/gmT-#60 / 138 · 50th pctT-#36 / 70 · 40th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#121 / 138 · 11th pctT-#65 / 70 · 6th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
94.5/gmT-#94 / 138 · 29th pctT-#52 / 70 · 22nd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
147.0/gmT-#118 / 138 · 13th pctT-#66 / 70 · 6th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
4321.5/gmT-#68 / 138 · 50th pctT-#42 / 70 · 39th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3216.0/gmT-#46 / 138 · 65th pctT-#35 / 70 · 48th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
157.5/gmT-#20 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#10 / 70 · 84th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#50 / 70 · 28th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2814.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 64th pctT-#19 / 70 · 70th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3216.0/gmT-#110 / 138 · 19th pctT-#60 / 70 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
10.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 29th pctT-#44 / 70 · 32nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 70 · 61st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
52.5/gmT-#27 / 138 · 74th pctT-#13 / 70 · 74th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 74th pctT-#10 / 70 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
58:2829:14/gmT-#94 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#47 / 70 · 33rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
61:3230:46/gmT-#85 / 138 · 38th pctT-#47 / 70 · 33rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
-0.00 EPA/play9222 / 4153.72636.424104.13664.1
+0.34 EPA/play2115 / 30501785.923101.8
-0.54 EPA/play1213 / 2161.91115.30287.3
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
-0.12 EPA/play8226773.0011
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · +0.81 EPA/play721214311.92
#24 FBS
21
+0.32 EPA/play2613121.8178

2026 stat leaders · Utah State

through 2 games

Harrison Taggart leads Utah State with 13 tackles through 2 games.

1. Harrison Taggart LB 13 tackles
2. Carl Nesmith LB 13 tackles
3. Titan Saxton DB 12 tackles
4. Eli Wood WR 143 receiving yards
5. Javon Robinson WR 131 receiving yards
How They Play · 2025

Utah State fields a strong explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense.

Offense
71st pct EPA/play
Tempo
88th pct explosiveness
Defense
25th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Utah State · 2025

Utah State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 13%) and rushing epa (top 21%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Utah State sits at the 5th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.20
71st
Success Rate +0.41
36th
Explosive Plays +1.36
88th
Rushing EPA +0.18
79th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.19
25th
Success Rate Allowed +0.42
36th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.30
33rd
Passing EPA Allowed +0.18
68th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.28
56th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.20
6th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Utah State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Utah State is worth +4.5 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 61st percentile of 133 programs

59% at home, 46% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (23–16 home, 21–25 away). Interval ±4.6.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Utah State has beaten the number by +4.7 more at home than away over 72 games — inside the ±7.5 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Maverik Stadium seats 25,513 and has averaged 71% full (18,075, 23 games reported). Visitors cover a median 446 miles to get here since 2018 — 64th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 33% of the 2026 roster (52 of 158 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.

Home23–16Away21–25Edge+4.5 ±4.6Visitor trip446 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Utah State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 46th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 56th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 46th pctileCompetitive snaps only · 56th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Utah State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

4th percentile success on standard downs, 93rd on passing downs — a 89-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantUtah StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

Utah State by half

1st-half offense ranks 5th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 30th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 5th pctile2nd half · 30th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Utah State’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Nick Howell (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 47% → 2026: 48% · 1-pt range · #203 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 36% → 2026: 47% · 10-pt range · #140 of 200 · a typical amount
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Utah State

CFB Zeitgeist

#56

+2.1

SP+

#108

-11.5

FPI

#95

-6.8

Elo

#95

1381

The national models put Utah State between 95th and 108th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 56th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Utah State

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

Utah State’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.

Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.

Indiana 1969–1974
clawed back
Miami (OH) 1987–1992
clawed back
SMU 1989–1994
stayed down
Central Michigan 1985–1990
kept sliding

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

58°F average kickoff temp; 3% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.

Based on 71 home games with weather data.

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