cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Austin Smith /Eastern Michigan

Austin Smith

QB · Eastern Michigan · Sr · #4

Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.

ALUMNUSEastern Michigan 2023 alumnus

QB · EASTERN MICHIGAN · MID-AMERICAN

Austin Smith

  • 4
  • #4
  • 6-3 | 209 lb
  • Ellenwood, GA

CFB Zeitgeist QB Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#658

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 0 · Not on team

R01 · Scout team / redshirt

Scout team / redshirt. Developing behind the depth chart.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2021–2023
16.02021
7742022
1,7752023

+10994%

Up 10994% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#588 national
CFB
College
Eastern Michigan
2021–2023
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books

+10009.1% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB
Class4
Jersey4
Measurements6-3 | 209 lb
HometownEllenwood, GA
Primary teamEastern Michigan

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 2627 recruit
Composite rating 0.8083 HighSchool
Signed with Eastern Michigan 2020
Origin River Rouge River Rouge, MI, USA
Class Profile Context
2020 3-star | 0.8083 No. 2627 recruit | HighSchool | Eastern Michigan
2015 3-star | 0.8661 No. 588 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2023 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 19
Current nowcast#658Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#882Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Eastern Michigan

Composite

0.8083

#2627 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Austin Smith

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Austin Smith

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Austin Smith's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Eastern Michigan, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #658 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 1.3% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2023 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2023 season snapshot | final

2023 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Pass yards 1,775 9 TD | 7 INT | #103/382 (73rd pct)
Completion rate 57.4% 171/298 completions | #255/383 (34th pct)
Yards/attempt 6.0 Explosiveness through the air | #265/382 (31st pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Steady volume against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

Steady volume

2023 Season · Final

2023 season snapshot | final

Passing Efficiency

CMP
171 75th
ATT
298 80th
CMP%
57.4% 34th
Y/A
6.0 31st

Passing Production

YDS
1,775 73rd
TD
9 71st
INT
7 23rd

Rushing

CAR
101 88th
YDS
134 72nd
YPC
1.3 29th
TD
2 73rd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 1 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCMP/ATTYDSTDINTYPAQBRNote
Wk 1W 34-14@ Middle Tennessee3/751007.3--Season-high 51 yds
Total3/751007.3
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Eastern Michigan7-5HC: Chris Creighton · Balanced, fast tempo
2022Eastern Michigan9-4HC: Chris Creighton · Run-leaning
2023Eastern Michigan6-7HC: Chris Creighton · Run-leaning, slow tempo
SeasonTeam
2023Eastern Michigan17129857.4%1,7756.097112.7----
2022Eastern Michigan6811957.1%7746.564121.7----
2021Eastern Michigan11100.0%1616.000234.4----
Career3 loaded seasons24041857.4%2,5656.11511115.5----
SeasonTeam
2023Eastern Michigan1011341.32--
2022Eastern Michigan612554.22--
2021Eastern Michigan----------
Career3 loaded seasons1623892.44--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 134 2 rush TD | #114/408 (72nd pct)
Usage 1.3% 2.9% pass share | 0.0% rush share | #417/428 (3rd pct)
Passing WEPA -- Adjusted value feed still loading
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 1,775 #103/382 73rd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Pass TD 9 #117/407 71st pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing Completions 171 #95/383 75th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Completion % 57.4% #255/383 34th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing Yards / attempt 6.0 #265/382 31st pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing yards 134 #114/408 72nd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Usage Role share 1.3% #417/428 3rd pct Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing Attempts 298 #84/407 80th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Interceptions 7 #316/407 23rd pct Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing Carries 101 #51/408 88th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing LONG 41 #66/391 83rd pct Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing Rush TD 2 #113/408 73rd pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing Yards / carry 1.3 #288/407 29th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage 2nd-down usage 4.0% #351/428 18th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Passing-down usage 3.4% #372/428 13th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage Pass share 2.9% #379/428 12th pct Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage 1st-down usage 0.0% #400/428 7th pct Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 3rd-down usage 0.0% #400/428 7th pct Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Rush share 0.0% #391/428 9th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage Standard-down usage 0.0% #415/428 3rd pct Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #69/258 74th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 1 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Road1g51.00.07.30.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Wins1g51.00.07.30.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Weeks 1-71g51.00.07.30.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · QB · 2023

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Chris Creighton

Pass share

51.1%

403 pass / 385 run

Plays / game

65.7

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

2.9%

342 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2023

1 coach
2021
Chris Creighton
Eastern Michigan
2022
Chris Creighton
Eastern Michigan
2023
Chris Creighton
Eastern Michigan

Played his entire career under Chris Creighton.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownEllenwood, GA
Height6'3"
Weight209 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey4

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2023 Eastern Michigan QB4 #658 #882 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Mid-American
2022 Eastern Michigan QB4 #477 #539 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Mid-American
2021 Eastern Michigan QB4 #1091 #1071 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Mid-American

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2023 Eastern Michigan Mid-American QB 4 No. 4 | 6-3 | 209 lb | Ellenwood, GA
2022 Eastern Michigan Mid-American QB 4 No. 4 | 6-3 | 209 lb | Ellenwood, GA
2021 Eastern Michigan Mid-American QB 4 No. 4 | 6-3 | 209 lb | Ellenwood, GA