Texas State beats Utah State 20-17
Team pages: Utah State · Texas State
Texas State beat Utah State 20-17. Share this game
We had Texas State favored. It won.
Next: Utah State vs Colorado State, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Utah State favored by 6.5
Next: Texas State at Boise State, Sat Oct 31 · 10:00 PM ET · Texas State underdog by 11.5
How it swung
The turning point: Garcia 6-yd TD pass to Watson, ties it 17-17 (Q4, 8:07). Texas State went from 91% to 76% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas State an 85% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas State was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.
Favored the whole way: Texas State never fell below 73%.
Utah State never had better than a 27% chance.
Texas State · Q1 10:58Texas State 20-17 Utah State
Texas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Utah State 17-20 Texas StateUtah State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:58Special teamsJenkins 100-yd kickoff return TD, Texas State goes ahead 7-3Texas State 79% → 91% (+12)
- 2Q4 8:07Garcia 6-yd TD pass to Watson, ties it 17-17Texas State 91% → 76% (−15)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:58Special teamsJenkins 100-yd kickoff return TD, Texas State goes ahead 7-3Utah State 21% → 9% (−12)
- 2Q4 8:07Garcia 6-yd TD pass to Watson, ties it 17-17Utah State 9% → 24% (+15)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Texas State -14.5), at 88% for Texas State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Texas State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 10:58Jenkins 100-yd kickoff return TDTexas State goes ahead 7-3Q1, 10:58 · Texas State 7, Utah State 3▲12%Texas State’s chance to win, 79% to 91%▲12%Texas State’s chance to win, 79% to 91%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 10:10Jackson 3-yd TD runTexas State goes ahead 14-9Q3, 10:10 · Texas State 14, Utah State 9▲8%Texas State’s chance to win, 82% to 90%▲8%Texas State’s chance to win, 82% to 90%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 9:19Brosterhous sacked for a 1-yd lossQ3, 9:19 · Texas State 14, Utah State 914-9score after the play14-9score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 8:07Garcia 6-yd TD pass to Watsonties it 17-17Q4, 8:07 · Texas State 17, Utah State 17▼15%Texas State’s chance to win, 91% to 76%▼15%Texas State’s chance to win, 91% to 76%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
Every drive
Texas State scored on 3 of its 9 drives; Utah State on 5 of its 11.
Texas State’s drives are teal, Utah State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Utah State’s side
Utah State’s best moment: Garcia 6-yd TD pass to Watson, ties it 17-17 (Q4 8:07). It lifted Utah State’s win chance by 15 points.
What it cost
Texas State’s chance to win the conference rose from 10% to 12%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Utah State plays vs Colorado State on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to win the conference. Texas State plays at Boise State on Sat Oct 31 with a 12% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Texas State 20, Utah State 17
Utah State covered +14.5 by 11.5. The total, 37, stayed under 58.5.
| Team totals | Utah State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 285 | 250 |
| Passing | 22 of 37, 212 yds | 27 of 37, 167 yds |
| Rushing | 32 for 73 yds | 31 for 83 yds |
| First downs | 20 | 20 |
| Third down | 4 of 14 | 10 of 18 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 6 for 38 yds | 5 for 45 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:44 | 28:16 |
Utah State leaders
- Passing Grady Brosterhous 21 of 36, 206 yds
- Rushing Javen Jacobs 14 for 42 yds; Grady Brosterhous 13 for 27 yds
- Receiving Anthony Garcia 8 for 87 yds; Javon Robinson 4 for 45 yds
Texas State leaders
- Passing Brad Jackson 27 of 37, 167 yds
- Rushing Torrance Burgess Jr. 10 for 51 yds; Brad Jackson 12 for 15 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Chris Dawn Jr. 7 for 48 yds; Beau Sparks 6 for 38 yds
No rain through the game
79° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at San Marcos (awos) airport, 3.8 miles away, and New Braunfels Muni Apt (was 3r5) airport, 14 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Utah State · 2-4
Rated 52nd in our preseason ratings, 76th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Texas State · 3-3
Rated 34th in our preseason ratings, 27th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Texas State
- Wk 2Lvs UTSA26-31
- Wk 3Wvs North Texas49-35
- Wk 4Wvs Incarnate Word63-10
- Wk 5Lat San Diego State29-31
- Wk 7Wvs Colorado State66-27
Utah State
- Wk 2Lat Washington14-16
- Wk 3Lat Utah0-33
- Wk 4Wvs Troy21-10
- Wk 5Lat Boise State18-37
- Wk 6Wvs Washington State17-16
Power rating by week
Texas State is rated 6.9 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Utah State’s rushing EPA against Texas State, 53 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Utah State’s rushing EPA against Texas State’s defense
Utah State offense, 8th percentile · Texas State defense, 61st
Texas State’s success rate against Utah State’s defense
Texas State offense, 93rd percentile · Utah State defense, 54th
Utah State’s explosive plays against Texas State’s defense
Utah State offense, 89th percentile · Texas State defense, 58th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Utah State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2012 · Utah State won the last meeting
- 2012Utah State 38-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Utah State fans are in a better mood than Texas State fans (92nd percentile vs 41st among FBS fanbases), even with Texas State favored.
Texas State favored by 14.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
Texas State by 14.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 263 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Texas State.
Spread: −9.5 → −14.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Texas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 70th percentile.
48% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (22-24 home, 11-37 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.2 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,127 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Texas State5th1-1
- Utah State4th1-1