The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 6 Indiana 25%, Oregon 30%, Penn State 64%
Win out 4% · expect 2.0 of 4 more wins
Washington's chance to win each game left, from our model: Penn State 64%, Michigan State 82%, Indiana 25%, Oregon 30%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 79% to 95%, peaking at 95% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 11th in the Big Ten · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Demond Williams Jr. 1,495 · Rushing Brian Bonner Jr. 309 · Receiving Chris Lawson 638 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Washington:athletics siteBig TenX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #26 | #43 | −23.5✗ −9.5 | Washington State | W 24-10 120 Loud | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Williams Jr. 268 · Rush Williams Jr. 61 · Rec Lawson 87 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #25 | #56 | −28.5✗ −26.5 | Utah State | W 16-14 132 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Williams Jr. 249 · Rush Williams Jr. 56 · Rec Roebuck 59 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #28 | #177 | −42.5✗ −10.5 | Eastern Washington | W 48-16 137 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Williams Jr. 373 · Rush Bonner Jr. 81 · Rec Roebuck 121 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #30 | #45 | −12.5✗ −15.5 | Minnesota | L 24-27 117 | 3-1 | 0-1 | Pass Williams Jr. 239 · Rush Bonner Jr. 23 · Rec Roebuck 87 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #29 | #25 | +7.5✓ +3.5 | @USC | L 21-25 129 | 3-2 | 0-2 | Pass Williams Jr. 198 · Rush Bonner Jr. 89 · Rec Lawson 82 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | #32 | #15 | −3✗ −20 | Iowa | L 24-41 133 | 3-3 | 0-3 | Pass Brown 251 · Rush Bonner Jr. 17 · Rec Lawson 86 |
| 7 | Oct 16 | #35 | #79 | +3✓ +15 | @Purdue | W 38-26 129 | 4-3 | 1-3 | Pass Brown 302 · Rush Cooley 113 · Rec Lawson 103 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #37 | #18 | +7.5✓ +14.5 | @Nebraska | W 17-10 136 Loud | 5-3 | 2-3 | Pass Brown 136 · Rush Williams Jr. 28 · Rec Lawson 155 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #32 | #44 | −2.5 | Penn State | 3:30 pm ET · FS164% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #31 | #126 | @Michigan State | time TBA82% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Indiana | time TBA25% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | +15.5 | @Oregon | time TBA | |||||
Win chances are our model for Washington, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Washington: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Nebraska | W 17-10 | 267 | 0 | 29:18 | -0.088 | 30.6% | 1.25 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 16 | @Purdue | W 38-26 | 488 | 5 | 29:16 | +0.254 | 51.6% | 1.38 | Best success rate |
| Oct 9 | Iowa | L 24-41 | 317 | 0 | 31:41 | +0.159 | 34.6% | 1.37 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | @USC | L 21-25 | 319 | 1 | 25:02 | +0.023 | 37.7% | 1.22 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | Minnesota | L 24-27 | 279 | 2 | 23:59 | +0.071 | 38.2% | 1.53 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | Eastern Washington | W 48-16 | 546 | 1 | 29:47 | +0.478 | 51.6% | 1.41 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Utah State | W 16-14 | 356 | 0 | 35:05 | +0.032 | 41.6% | 0.93 | One-score win |
| Sep 6 | Washington State | W 24-10 | 402 | 0 | 29:16 | +0.078 | 46.9% | 1.07 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 372 | 1.1 | +0.126 | 41.6% | 1.27 | ||||
Washington's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.
A guy walked up to my 13-year-old daughter and was like, ‘F-U and F your dad.’ I’m not going to keep coaching if it means my kids grow up screwed up
1% now · ▲ 1 point in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Washington · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 3%; 6 wins 24%; 7 wins 44%; 8 wins 24%; 9 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Washington played for the national championship one January and then watched the coach, the Heisman quarterback, and half the roster walk out the door — and the program's whole identity now is the bet that the altitude it reached in 2023 was a choice it can make again, not lightning it caught once.
Fans heard their 2023 run reframed the moment DeBoer left — that the season was a fluke of one coach and one quarterback, that the West Coast program would shrink back to the middle. They believe…
Washington · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Mild. No coat needed.
Penn State at Washington · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FS1 · Husky Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Washington is the Pacific Northwest's argument that contender altitude is a choice, not a geography.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
41st percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Washington · 2026